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I understand why people are distressed, because the press and other media make a lot of noise about imminent disaster. However, markets price in ahead of time a
by ptaipale 8y ago
I understand why people are distressed, because the press and other media make a lot of noise about imminent disaster. However, markets price in ahead of time any impacts that they foresee, and we can observe that
- Britain's government debt yields, e.g. 2 and 10 year bonds, remain at similar levels to pre Brexit vote, and unlike before 2016, 10-year yields are now lower than US 10-year yields
- in currencies, the GBP has remained fairly stable against EUR and USD.
I have no doubt that there will be some impact. I did not wish Brexit to happen. But I see some positive signs as well (mainly in that this forces EU leaders to sober up).
- sys_64738 8y agoThe Brit pound devalued by about 20% V the USA dollar. The buoyant export market is propping up the brit pound as it's cheap to export but staples like food imports have risen in price. A recent report indicated that the UK economy would have grown something like 8% more had there been no brexit. Brexit is a disaster.
- ptaipale 8y agoIt devalued instantly after the unexpected voting result, but has since then recovered. Compared to historical shifts over past decades, the impact of Brexit is not very visible on a chart. The falls from 1970 to 1975, or 1980 to 1985, or in 2008, are clearly more dramatic. https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo... "Recent reports" are many and contradictory, as usual.
- sys_64738 8y agoRecovered? Nonsense. The historical trend for the pound is to be worth $1.5 whereas it’s trundled along around $1.2 since. Stop making up excuses for the disaster that is brexit. No sane nation would leave the EU.