6 ms·

Facebook is dead. It's just taking a long time for this to become apparent.

by Lordarminius 8y ago

King-Aaron 8y ago
There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.
- MagnaEterna 8y ago
  They are all old. Facebook will probably still be functioning for the next 40 years until it's users finally die and then it's over.
  - danso 8y ago
    So, basically Facebook still has a lifetime at least an eon long in tech years? The World Wide Web is not even 40 years old yet.
  - bennyelv 8y ago
    But Instagram users aren't, and there's nothing stopping Facebook from buying whatever the next generation of youth start using to replace Instagram when its time comes. The question is can they make enough cash to make the model perpetual.
    - AlexandrB 8y ago
      > there's nothing stopping Facebook from buying whatever the next generation of youth start using to replace Instagram when its time comes. Hopefully antitrust law will stop them, because with a behemoth like Facebook buying up every new, exciting social network real innovation, especially in monetization, will continue to be a myth.
  - King-Aaron 8y ago
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-user-age-distribution/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-u... > They are all old. It doesn't appear to strictly be the case.
  - MarkMc 8y ago
    They might be all old in US and Europe. But in India and other third world countries Facebook seems to be doing OK with young people.
    - tivert 8y ago
      Facebook makes far more money per user in the US or Europe. Third world activity won't be able to make up for the revenue drop if the bottom falls out of Facebook's first world properties.
- SCdF 8y ago
  Active users as a statistic reminds me of employment rate. It sounds useful, but it's not really that useful, because it's not really measuring the interesting thing, it just sounds like it is. For example, I think the stat you're quoting is monthly active users. If everyone used to engage with FB 20 times a day but now does so once a day (or once a week, or once a month) the active user count will stay the same, but the reality is very different.
  - TekMol 8y ago
    Look at the daily active users then: https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-dau/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...
    - SCdF 8y ago
      I get that's closer, but it's still not that useful, because it doesn't actually capture how people use the software and whether that's changing. People communicate with me via FB messenger, and I respond to them. Otherwise I don't use the app. Am I an active user? Once a day I open it, realise it's shit and vacuous, and importantly my SIL (the only person I still use it to keep up with) hasn't made any useful updates, so I close it 20 seconds later (this one is me, fwiw). Am I an an active user? I don't post anything, I just scroll through the same 200 friends I'd had for 10 years, with no movement or differing usage. Am I an active user? I don't use facebook as a social tool, I have no friends etc, but facebook groups are used in my area to buy and sell things. The second people move to another site I'd happily move. Am I an active user?
      - TekMol 8y ago
        Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes
        SCdF 8y ago
        That is a very nicely formatted response. It--- at least to me--- proves my point that active user is not a useful metric, as all of those people have very different values and drive growth (or don't) in very different ways, and so have no use being clumped together. We didn't even get to talk about differing user demographics or time, data by country, trends inside countries etc.
- rmason 8y ago
  What matters is the DAU or daily active users. I'd be willing to bet that number is dropping.
  - King-Aaron 8y ago
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-dau/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d... I honestly don't know the quality of data that statista produces, so take it with a grain of salt. The curve does appear to be dimming towards the end of Q3 '18, but it certainly doesn't appear to be as dire as people make it out to be. I think there's a heavy dose of IT-industry echo chambering going on here to be honest. Point of interest: I severely dislike facebook, so not trying to justify anything on their behalf. I just don't see the idea that "facebook is dying" among any peers in any social circles I'm part of. I do wonder if it's different in the United States.
  - tivert 8y ago
    > What matters is the DAU or daily active users. I'd be willing to bet that number is dropping. I think what really matters is something like user actions/day. Anecdotally, Facebook engagement seems to be growing down but perhaps not yet in a way that would show up as a DAU drop (which I assume counts someone with even the barest interaction with the site as "active").
- puranjay 8y ago
  The people who should on Facebook aren't there any more - the young and the influential You can't grow with an audience base filled with 50 year olds.
  - klackerz 8y ago
    They are using Instagram instead which is also owned by Facebook.
  - ankit219 8y ago
    You can't grow when you have onboarded most of the world with access to internet. (total users is 2B. When they are not even in China)
    - MarkMc 8y ago
      Facebook can still grow its revenue even if the number of users is constant if: (a) Users become richer over time; (b) Users spend more time online; (c) Facebook can improve the algorithm that matches ads to users
- gaius 8y ago
  Is that with or without the bots? It wouldn’t surprise me if the real number was under a billion. Which is still a big number but it means growth was over along time ago.
- pier25 8y ago
  Yeah, but it's really a matter of time. Facebook has become the social network for grandmas and aunties. Facebook has expanded to new countries in the last decade which has brought these millions of users, but younger generations in countries that have had Facebook for a long time are not using it anymore. In the US most Facebook users are between 25-34. There are barely any teenagers. https://www.statista.com/statistics/187041/us-user-age-distribution-on-facebook/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/187041/us-user-age-distr... This trend is a bit less pronounced in global demographics, but I think it's clear that younger generations don't like Facebook. https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-user-age-distribution/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-u...
  - danso 8y ago
    Most developed countries have populations that continue to skew older: https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2018/comm/century-of-change.html https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2018/comm/cent...
    - pier25 8y ago
      Yes, but teens are using other platforms than Facebook: http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/05/31/teens-social-media-technology-2018/ http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/05/31/teens-social-media-tec...
  - wild_preference 8y ago
    Staking your claim on what teenagers today do today doesn't make much sense to me because teenagers get older. Facebook just has to be the social network people end up on. I'd at least look at college-aged people, not the weird, limited social life of high schoolers.
    - pier25 8y ago
      Maybe. Time will tell.
- dredmorbius 8y ago
  Google+ has 3.3 billion profiles and 7.9 million Communities.[1] If they stop showing up, it really doesn't matter. MUAs are better than static profiles, but if the motivation is fear or guilt, rather than active affinity, the connection is tenuous. ________________________________ Notes: 1. I counted them: https://old.reddit.com/r/plexodus/comments/9zx67d/google_communities_membership_analysis_preview/ https://old.reddit.com/r/plexodus/comments/9zx67d/google_com...

Facebook is dead. It's just taking a long time for this to become apparent.

King-Aaron 8y ago

There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.

MagnaEterna 8y ago
They are all old. Facebook will probably still be functioning for the next 40 years until it's users finally die and then it's over.
- danso 8y ago
  So, basically Facebook still has a lifetime at least an eon long in tech years? The World Wide Web is not even 40 years old yet.
- bennyelv 8y ago
  But Instagram users aren't, and there's nothing stopping Facebook from buying whatever the next generation of youth start using to replace Instagram when its time comes. The question is can they make enough cash to make the model perpetual.
  - AlexandrB 8y ago
    > there's nothing stopping Facebook from buying whatever the next generation of youth start using to replace Instagram when its time comes. Hopefully antitrust law will stop them, because with a behemoth like Facebook buying up every new, exciting social network real innovation, especially in monetization, will continue to be a myth.
- King-Aaron 8y ago
  https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-user-age-distribution/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-u... > They are all old. It doesn't appear to strictly be the case.
- MarkMc 8y ago
  They might be all old in US and Europe. But in India and other third world countries Facebook seems to be doing OK with young people.
  - tivert 8y ago
    Facebook makes far more money per user in the US or Europe. Third world activity won't be able to make up for the revenue drop if the bottom falls out of Facebook's first world properties.
SCdF 8y ago
Active users as a statistic reminds me of employment rate. It sounds useful, but it's not really that useful, because it's not really measuring the interesting thing, it just sounds like it is. For example, I think the stat you're quoting is monthly active users. If everyone used to engage with FB 20 times a day but now does so once a day (or once a week, or once a month) the active user count will stay the same, but the reality is very different.
- TekMol 8y ago
  Look at the daily active users then: https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-dau/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...
  - SCdF 8y ago
    I get that's closer, but it's still not that useful, because it doesn't actually capture how people use the software and whether that's changing. People communicate with me via FB messenger, and I respond to them. Otherwise I don't use the app. Am I an active user? Once a day I open it, realise it's shit and vacuous, and importantly my SIL (the only person I still use it to keep up with) hasn't made any useful updates, so I close it 20 seconds later (this one is me, fwiw). Am I an an active user? I don't post anything, I just scroll through the same 200 friends I'd had for 10 years, with no movement or differing usage. Am I an active user? I don't use facebook as a social tool, I have no friends etc, but facebook groups are used in my area to buy and sell things. The second people move to another site I'd happily move. Am I an active user?
    - TekMol 8y ago
      Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes
      - SCdF 8y ago
        That is a very nicely formatted response. It--- at least to me--- proves my point that active user is not a useful metric, as all of those people have very different values and drive growth (or don't) in very different ways, and so have no use being clumped together. We didn't even get to talk about differing user demographics or time, data by country, trends inside countries etc.
rmason 8y ago
What matters is the DAU or daily active users. I'd be willing to bet that number is dropping.
- King-Aaron 8y ago
  https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-dau/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d... I honestly don't know the quality of data that statista produces, so take it with a grain of salt. The curve does appear to be dimming towards the end of Q3 '18, but it certainly doesn't appear to be as dire as people make it out to be. I think there's a heavy dose of IT-industry echo chambering going on here to be honest. Point of interest: I severely dislike facebook, so not trying to justify anything on their behalf. I just don't see the idea that "facebook is dying" among any peers in any social circles I'm part of. I do wonder if it's different in the United States.
- tivert 8y ago
  > What matters is the DAU or daily active users. I'd be willing to bet that number is dropping. I think what really matters is something like user actions/day. Anecdotally, Facebook engagement seems to be growing down but perhaps not yet in a way that would show up as a DAU drop (which I assume counts someone with even the barest interaction with the site as "active").
puranjay 8y ago
The people who should on Facebook aren't there any more - the young and the influential You can't grow with an audience base filled with 50 year olds.
- klackerz 8y ago
  They are using Instagram instead which is also owned by Facebook.
- ankit219 8y ago
  You can't grow when you have onboarded most of the world with access to internet. (total users is 2B. When they are not even in China)
  - MarkMc 8y ago
    Facebook can still grow its revenue even if the number of users is constant if: (a) Users become richer over time; (b) Users spend more time online; (c) Facebook can improve the algorithm that matches ads to users
gaius 8y ago
Is that with or without the bots? It wouldn’t surprise me if the real number was under a billion. Which is still a big number but it means growth was over along time ago.
pier25 8y ago
Yeah, but it's really a matter of time. Facebook has become the social network for grandmas and aunties. Facebook has expanded to new countries in the last decade which has brought these millions of users, but younger generations in countries that have had Facebook for a long time are not using it anymore. In the US most Facebook users are between 25-34. There are barely any teenagers. https://www.statista.com/statistics/187041/us-user-age-distribution-on-facebook/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/187041/us-user-age-distr... This trend is a bit less pronounced in global demographics, but I think it's clear that younger generations don't like Facebook. https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-user-age-distribution/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-u...
- danso 8y ago
  Most developed countries have populations that continue to skew older: https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2018/comm/century-of-change.html https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2018/comm/cent...
  - pier25 8y ago
    Yes, but teens are using other platforms than Facebook: http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/05/31/teens-social-media-technology-2018/ http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/05/31/teens-social-media-tec...
- wild_preference 8y ago
  Staking your claim on what teenagers today do today doesn't make much sense to me because teenagers get older. Facebook just has to be the social network people end up on. I'd at least look at college-aged people, not the weird, limited social life of high schoolers.
  - pier25 8y ago
    Maybe. Time will tell.
dredmorbius 8y ago
Google+ has 3.3 billion profiles and 7.9 million Communities.[1] If they stop showing up, it really doesn't matter. MUAs are better than static profiles, but if the motivation is fear or guilt, rather than active affinity, the connection is tenuous. ________________________________ Notes: 1. I counted them: https://old.reddit.com/r/plexodus/comments/9zx67d/google_communities_membership_analysis_preview/ https://old.reddit.com/r/plexodus/comments/9zx67d/google_com...