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Keep in mind the numbers quoted in the article: 25% of those surveyed said 50% of their clothes will be "nearshored" by 2025. So within 7 years (ballpark numb

Keep in mind the numbers quoted in the article: 25% of those surveyed said 50% of their clothes will be "nearshored" by 2025. So within 7 years (ballpark number) 12.5% of clothes will be nearshored. That sounds pretty plausible. It's not exactly a titanic shift, more of a gradual one And looking at the chart backs up those kind of numbers. Fewer companies have 0-10% nearshored and more companies having 10-30% nearshored. Of course, the survey is a bit misleading because it isn't volume-weighted. If 100 boutiques use nearshoring but Walmart doesn't... Also keep in mind that "nearshoring" doesn't mean "moving back to the US and Western Europe". If you read the linked McKinsey study it means "moving to Mexico and Turkey because the US and Germany are still way too expensive even with full automation". I also live in Vietnam :)

why_only_15 8y ago
Your calculations weren't quite correct because you didn't account for all the different survey answers. If you account for all of them, right now about 21% [0] of clothes are nearshored, and in 7 years about 30% of clothes will be nearshored. That's about a 45% increase in the amount of clothing nearshored or 13% decrease in the amount of clothes manufactured overseas. Vietnam's share might still increase though because it may take more of the declining Asian share. [0]: Using the midpoint between the two survey options and 60% for 50%+: 6.21 + .45.03 + .35.04 + .25.05 + .15.15 + .075.18 + .025.33 = .21025 [1]: With the same method: .6.24 + .45.04 + .35.14 + .25.18 + .15.22 + .075.15 + .025.03 = .301
esmi 8y ago
They’ve also been writing roughly the same article for years. Here’s one from 2014 https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article9148256.html https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article91482... It does contain some interesting things about the cost of cotton and this quote which struck me. Said Wang: “Except for human labor, all other production factors are cheaper in the U.S.” I wonder if that’s still the case. The parent article exists so maybe it is...

why_only_15 8y ago

Your calculations weren't quite correct because you didn't account for all the different survey answers. If you account for all of them, right now about 21% [0] of clothes are nearshored, and in 7 years about 30% of clothes will be nearshored. That's about a 45% increase in the amount of clothing nearshored or 13% decrease in the amount of clothes manufactured overseas. Vietnam's share might still increase though because it may take more of the declining Asian share. [0]: Using the midpoint between the two survey options and 60% for 50%+: 6.21 + .45.03 + .35.04 + .25.05 + .15.15 + .075.18 + .025.33 = .21025 [1]: With the same method: .6.24 + .45.04 + .35.14 + .25.18 + .15.22 + .075.15 + .025.03 = .301

esmi 8y ago

They’ve also been writing roughly the same article for years. Here’s one from 2014 https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article9148256.html https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article91482... It does contain some interesting things about the cost of cotton and this quote which struck me. Said Wang: “Except for human labor, all other production factors are cheaper in the U.S.” I wonder if that’s still the case. The parent article exists so maybe it is...