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I think bikes will become a niche sports product, replaced by E-Scooters for basic transportation around town, and autonomous cars/minibuses for anything longer

I think bikes will become a niche sports product, replaced by E-Scooters for basic transportation around town, and autonomous cars/minibuses for anything longer.

seotut2 8y ago
Batteries are still too inconvenient and costly. I still regularly ride a wonderful steel bike that's older than myself (a top of the line koga miyata). So with a battery lifetime of the order of ~1000 charge cycles, if you take into considerations the costs of regularly replacing the battery, then ebikes (and e-scooters) are in a different price segment altogether.
- collyw 8y ago
  Yes, this is what makes me sceptical about the trend in electric mountain bikes. You can fix 90% of bike problems on a remote trail, with a small set of tools and a few spare parts. Electric bikes bring something that isn't going to be as easy to fix.
ArrayList 8y ago
I think you're entirely wrong. You've got to realize how many people love crushing it on a road bike and getting all the fun and fitness that come along with that.
lhopki01 8y ago
There's more to a bike than just pure transport. There's the fact that you exercise at the same time as being one of the fastest ways around.
- jillesvangurp 8y ago
  Yep, got back into cycling to work this summer by siging up for one of the bike sharing programs. Good lifehack if like me you are obviously in need of some exercise but can't really be bothered to go to a gym. Also saving a ton on transport tickets. I wouldn't claim it is faster but definitely more relaxing.
collyw 8y ago
You don't get any exercise with an e-scooter, and personally I go a fair bit faster than most of them on my bike. Cycling to the work saves me time on my commute and the need not to go to a gym. My commuting bike (a very basic mountain bike, cost < 300 euros) has paid for itself multiple times over in saved money on public transport. Its an efficient lifesytle choice for me. I can't understand why so few people cycle.
- peterwwillis 8y ago
  > I can't understand why so few people cycle. Rain, snow, hills, sweat, cargo, parking, theft, [getting hit by] cars, maintenance. I have two bicycles, and I'm considering a bikeshare subscription, because hauling them up and down three floors and maneuvering them around a tiny apartment is annoying. Unrelated, but I was hit by a car on bike to work day.
gerry_shaw 8y ago
After a visit to SE Asia I'm in agreement. The transformation that will take place in those cities from IC motorbikes to eBikes will be a huge quality of life improvement in terms of pollution and noise. Not sure about North America. So many fast moving heavy vehicles and poorer weather don't make eBikes for the masses as appealing.

I think bikes will become a niche sports product, replaced by E-Scooters for basic transportation around town, and autonomous cars/minibuses for anything longer.

seotut2 8y ago

Batteries are still too inconvenient and costly. I still regularly ride a wonderful steel bike that's older than myself (a top of the line koga miyata). So with a battery lifetime of the order of ~1000 charge cycles, if you take into considerations the costs of regularly replacing the battery, then ebikes (and e-scooters) are in a different price segment altogether.

collyw 8y ago
Yes, this is what makes me sceptical about the trend in electric mountain bikes. You can fix 90% of bike problems on a remote trail, with a small set of tools and a few spare parts. Electric bikes bring something that isn't going to be as easy to fix.

ArrayList 8y ago

I think you're entirely wrong. You've got to realize how many people love crushing it on a road bike and getting all the fun and fitness that come along with that.

lhopki01 8y ago

There's more to a bike than just pure transport. There's the fact that you exercise at the same time as being one of the fastest ways around.

jillesvangurp 8y ago
Yep, got back into cycling to work this summer by siging up for one of the bike sharing programs. Good lifehack if like me you are obviously in need of some exercise but can't really be bothered to go to a gym. Also saving a ton on transport tickets. I wouldn't claim it is faster but definitely more relaxing.

collyw 8y ago

You don't get any exercise with an e-scooter, and personally I go a fair bit faster than most of them on my bike. Cycling to the work saves me time on my commute and the need not to go to a gym. My commuting bike (a very basic mountain bike, cost < 300 euros) has paid for itself multiple times over in saved money on public transport. Its an efficient lifesytle choice for me. I can't understand why so few people cycle.

peterwwillis 8y ago
> I can't understand why so few people cycle. Rain, snow, hills, sweat, cargo, parking, theft, [getting hit by] cars, maintenance. I have two bicycles, and I'm considering a bikeshare subscription, because hauling them up and down three floors and maneuvering them around a tiny apartment is annoying. Unrelated, but I was hit by a car on bike to work day.

gerry_shaw 8y ago

After a visit to SE Asia I'm in agreement. The transformation that will take place in those cities from IC motorbikes to eBikes will be a huge quality of life improvement in terms of pollution and noise. Not sure about North America. So many fast moving heavy vehicles and poorer weather don't make eBikes for the masses as appealing.