4 ms·
Those who start stock trading, or gambling, quickly learn (the hard way) to differentiate between the brain's delusion of prediction, and the cold hard truth of
by chronolitus 8y ago
Those who start stock trading, or gambling, quickly learn (the hard way) to differentiate between the brain's delusion of prediction, and the cold hard truth of statistics, randomness, and probability.
But if one is indeed right about their intuitions/senses/dreams containing some truth beyond the computable bayesian prior probability, they would definitely stand to make quite a sum on the stock market.
What particularly bothers me is that, say that the brain had somehow managed to develop a science-defying future-prediction ability, why on earth would it not develop and explicitly use that ability rather than subtly injecting vague clues in dreams, or say raising vague feelings in one direction or other? In a darwinian context, wasting such effort and valuable computation is rather atypical.
And if it did indeed somehow inject this future-prediction in its subconscious estimates for likelihoods, we would be seeing humans doing things which defy the accepted laws of knowable randomness, like predicting coin outcomes with better than 50% probability (similar, longer-timespan experiments could trivially be devised ).
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