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Since you mention Bayesian methods, I thought I may randomly ask you - have you come across any good work about applications of subjective Bayesian statistics i
by sixdimensional 8y ago
Since you mention Bayesian methods, I thought I may randomly ask you - have you come across any good work about applications of subjective Bayesian statistics in AI?
I was particularly interested in subjective Bayes theory due to the way it seems to interleave human input with mathematical theory.
I first learned about it from a non-fiction book in which these techniques were used by scientists in the US to locate Russian ICBMs that were test-fired during the Cold War and landed in the ocean. The wisdom of experts was quantified and fed into a simple Bayesian subjective probability calculation which lead to prioritization of target areas to investigate and the US located on either the first or second try - I can't recall. I've seen a few other interesting applications of this as well.
I'm not an expert in this area, but you sound like you might be - so I thought I'd take the change to ask :)
- Chris_Jay 8y agoI'm not an expert either, but you might be interested in the book 'Superforecasting' by Tetlock and Gardner - they have done some (IMHO) very interesting research on predictions markets. It might be the kind of thing you're looking to research more of!
- sixdimensional 8y agoThanks for the recommendation - that does look very interesting indeed! I will find myself a copy and have a read. Hacker News book club comes through again!! :)
- eli_gottlieb 8y ago> Since you mention Bayesian methods, I thought I may randomly ask you - have you come across any good work about applications of subjective Bayesian statistics in AI? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0MF-r9PsvE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0MF-r9PsvE https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.10756 https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.10756 (by my adviser) https://probprog.cc/ https://probprog.cc/ (chaired by my adviser, new)