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It does appear to also be a problem in Tokyo [1] Houston's economy is still recovering from a natural disaster [2] Are we sure this is not simply the product o

It does appear to also be a problem in Tokyo [1] Houston's economy is still recovering from a natural disaster [2] Are we sure this is not simply the product of a global shift towards populations migrating to urban centers? And maybe we might want to look at what is causing this rapid migration? For example economic growth has almost always gone hand in hand with rapid urban migration. "We know of no coun- tries that either achieved high incomes or rapid growth without substantial urbanization, often quite rapid." [3] So it appears that your solution to reducing housing prices, caused by economic growth, is to increase construction, which causes economic growth, which causes urbanization, which then leads us back to rising housing prices. What am I missing here? [1] http://japanpropertycentral.com/2018/02/rent-in-tokyo-reaches-record-high/ http://japanpropertycentral.com/2018/02/rent-in-tokyo-reache... [2] http://cokinoslaw.com/flood-hurricane-harveys-180-billion-impact-houstons-economy/ http://cokinoslaw.com/flood-hurricane-harveys-180-billion-im... [3] https://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTPREMNET/Resources/489960-1338997241035/Growth_Commission_Vol1_Urbanization_Growth.pdf https://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTPREMNET/Resources/489...

AnthonyMouse 8y ago
> It does appear to also be a problem in Tokyo Those prices are still substantially lower than they are in NYC or San Francisco. Notice also that despite the volatility the current price is ~3% higher than it was when record keeping began a decade ago. This is significantly below the rate of inflation. And the bottom of that graph isn't at zero -- it's also exaggerating the level of volatility. > Houston's economy is still recovering from a natural disaster That would be relevant if they were problematically high prior to the hurricane. But would you prefer San Antonio? Phoenix? Jacksonville? > What am I missing here? Saturation. If the NYC metro area (8683 sq mi) had the population density of Mumbai (73,837/sq mi), it would have population 641 million. The US population is 325 million. Therefore that population density is impossible in the NYC metro area (without a massive, implausible degree of international immigration exceeding what's permitted under existing law). Moreover, it can absorb even fewer additional people at the same time as the same occurs in San Francisco, Chicago, Dallas, Boston, Los Angeles, etc. There exists a point where there is enough housing for everyone who wants to live in that city, at which point building more does not attract new residents, it only lowers prices for existing residents (as more landlords compete to not be the one with an empty unit).

AnthonyMouse 8y ago

> It does appear to also be a problem in Tokyo Those prices are still substantially lower than they are in NYC or San Francisco. Notice also that despite the volatility the current price is ~3% higher than it was when record keeping began a decade ago. This is significantly below the rate of inflation. And the bottom of that graph isn't at zero -- it's also exaggerating the level of volatility. > Houston's economy is still recovering from a natural disaster That would be relevant if they were problematically high prior to the hurricane. But would you prefer San Antonio? Phoenix? Jacksonville? > What am I missing here? Saturation. If the NYC metro area (8683 sq mi) had the population density of Mumbai (73,837/sq mi), it would have population 641 million. The US population is 325 million. Therefore that population density is impossible in the NYC metro area (without a massive, implausible degree of international immigration exceeding what's permitted under existing law). Moreover, it can absorb even fewer additional people at the same time as the same occurs in San Francisco, Chicago, Dallas, Boston, Los Angeles, etc. There exists a point where there is enough housing for everyone who wants to live in that city, at which point building more does not attract new residents, it only lowers prices for existing residents (as more landlords compete to not be the one with an empty unit).