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Very optimistic piece about the Chinese economy from a Chinese American who now resides in China. The author works for Washington Post, which is owned by Jeff

Very optimistic piece about the Chinese economy from a Chinese American who now resides in China. The author works for Washington Post, which is owned by Jeff Bezos, whose company Amazon greatly benefits from China. There is no doubt this is a piece that is trying to rally around a very unlikely scenario where the US administration will give into Chinese belligerence and back off on trade tariffs at the end of November when Trump and Xi meets - despite Trump, Pence, the current Trump administration, and even prominent Democrats' hardline against China. A trade war which the US is winning strongly. A couple of things stands out from the article: reminiscience about the great Chinese growth in the last 30 years, and "The party appears to enjoy broad public support, and many around the world are convinced that Mr. Trump’s America is in retreat while China’s moment is just beginning." That last thing is the conclusion drawn out of nowhere, and very incorrect. US has been growing 4% this year, while every other major economies around the world has suffered. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/14/economy/economy-global-slowdown/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/14/economy/economy-global-slowdo... The author cleverly avoids talking about China's now: slumping economy, the ever increasing local government/corporate/personal debt, export falling 30% year-over-year in Guangdong, the top exporting province https://sinoinsider.com/2018/10/risk-watch-declining-export-surplus-will-affect-chinas-forex-earnings/ https://sinoinsider.com/2018/10/risk-watch-declining-export-..., potential tariff on all of China's import into US, the great military alliance between US, Japan, Australia, India and several other Southeast Asian countries against China in South Asia Sea, western ambassadors demanding answers to China's imprisonment of Muslim minority https://www.businessinsider.com/china-slams-western-ambassadors-over-plan-to-grill-uighur-persecution-2018-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/china-slams-western-ambassad..., and last, how private companies which drove the innovations in china are dying out to state enterprises https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-24/china-s-squeezed-private-companies-face-more-funding-pain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-24/china-s-s.... EDIT: clarified author

herlitzj 8y ago
It's NYTimes, not WaPo. And it's not a single author, there are 5 bylines Jonathan Ansfield and Keith Bradsher contributed reporting from Beijing. Claire Fu and Iris Zhao contributed research from Beijing, and Carolyn Zhang from Shanghai.
- joefranklinsrs 8y ago
  I meant to say that the author works for Washington Post
  - matt4077 8y ago
    The author works for the NYT. Evidence: this article by the author, published by the Times. Or are you saying they are secretly working for the WashPo?
withhighprod 8y ago
Very few use amazon in China. Amazon clearly have a hard time to scale there
fatjokes 8y ago
So any positive things said about China from a Chinese American should be discounted?
- joefranklinsrs 8y ago
  Nope, simply giving context
  - fatjokes 8y ago
    Then you neglected to include the ethnicities/nationalities of the photographer, contributing authors, and editorial staff of the NYTimes. Wouldn't that be similarly useful context?
    - joefranklinsrs 8y ago
      Now you are just grasping at straws :) but hey, everyone on the internet is a racist right?
      - fatjokes 8y ago
        You didn't dig up some undisclosed connection between the author and the Chinese communist party, or other business interests that may taint their reporting. You are only suspicious because of their ethnicity. And relax, as Avenue Q states: everybody's a little bit racist! But discussion on HN is meant to be substantiative, and part of that is trying to avoid ad-hominem attacks with a racist tint.
- faitswulff 8y ago
  Seems like anything said about China by Chinese (anywhere) should be discounted, which leaves it up to the true experts on China - people not in, involved with, or knowledgeable about China!
D_Alex 8y ago
> export falling 30% year-over-year in Guangdong Export surplus is falling... that's a very different animal.
OldHand2018 8y ago
> A trade war which the US is winning strongly. If you're wondering about the American soybean farmers that China has targeted as a response, you'll see that they are... simply looking at the commodities futures markets and making rational economic decisions [1]. I'm sure that this is not at all what China was hoping to accomplish. [1] https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-soybeans-china-trade-war-20181112-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-soybeans-chin... The bags farmers are using are not new technology, they have been around since the 1990s: https://extension.purdue.edu/article/6963 https://extension.purdue.edu/article/6963
chillacy 8y ago
I didn’t read optimism at all. Look at the very next line after that quote. > The party appears to enjoy broad public support, and many around the world are convinced that Mr. Trump’s America is in retreat while China’s moment is just beginning. > Then again, China has a way of defying expectations. In other words: China seems to be doing well but then again they could totally fail The author is clearly uncertain of China’s future, not too bearish but clearly not bullish either. He even makes reference to Xi’s crackdowns and return to autocracy as being troubling signs, not sure signs of success.

herlitzj 8y ago

It's NYTimes, not WaPo. And it's not a single author, there are 5 bylines Jonathan Ansfield and Keith Bradsher contributed reporting from Beijing. Claire Fu and Iris Zhao contributed research from Beijing, and Carolyn Zhang from Shanghai.

joefranklinsrs 8y ago
I meant to say that the author works for Washington Post
- matt4077 8y ago
  The author works for the NYT. Evidence: this article by the author, published by the Times. Or are you saying they are secretly working for the WashPo?

withhighprod 8y ago

Very few use amazon in China. Amazon clearly have a hard time to scale there

fatjokes 8y ago

So any positive things said about China from a Chinese American should be discounted?

joefranklinsrs 8y ago
Nope, simply giving context
- fatjokes 8y ago
  Then you neglected to include the ethnicities/nationalities of the photographer, contributing authors, and editorial staff of the NYTimes. Wouldn't that be similarly useful context?
  - joefranklinsrs 8y ago
    Now you are just grasping at straws :) but hey, everyone on the internet is a racist right?
    - fatjokes 8y ago
      You didn't dig up some undisclosed connection between the author and the Chinese communist party, or other business interests that may taint their reporting. You are only suspicious because of their ethnicity. And relax, as Avenue Q states: everybody's a little bit racist! But discussion on HN is meant to be substantiative, and part of that is trying to avoid ad-hominem attacks with a racist tint.
faitswulff 8y ago
Seems like anything said about China by Chinese (anywhere) should be discounted, which leaves it up to the true experts on China - people not in, involved with, or knowledgeable about China!

D_Alex 8y ago

> export falling 30% year-over-year in Guangdong Export surplus is falling... that's a very different animal.

OldHand2018 8y ago

> A trade war which the US is winning strongly. If you're wondering about the American soybean farmers that China has targeted as a response, you'll see that they are... simply looking at the commodities futures markets and making rational economic decisions [1]. I'm sure that this is not at all what China was hoping to accomplish. [1] https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-soybeans-china-trade-war-20181112-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-soybeans-chin... The bags farmers are using are not new technology, they have been around since the 1990s: https://extension.purdue.edu/article/6963 https://extension.purdue.edu/article/6963

chillacy 8y ago

I didn’t read optimism at all. Look at the very next line after that quote. > The party appears to enjoy broad public support, and many around the world are convinced that Mr. Trump’s America is in retreat while China’s moment is just beginning. > Then again, China has a way of defying expectations. In other words: China seems to be doing well but then again they could totally fail The author is clearly uncertain of China’s future, not too bearish but clearly not bullish either. He even makes reference to Xi’s crackdowns and return to autocracy as being troubling signs, not sure signs of success.