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It’s always fun to hear how different perspectives make people consider different things apocalyptic. I’ve lived in Serbia throughout the stuff most of my Brit

by adzicg 8y ago

It’s always fun to hear how different perspectives make people consider different things apocalyptic. I’ve lived in Serbia throughout the stuff most of my British friends consider surreal and wouldn’t even imagine as a post-brexit crash, even in a no-deal scenario (the government just deciding to taking everone’s foreign currency savings one day, state-sponsored pyramid schemes, UN sanctions causing all the big industries to collapse, NATO bombing causing almost a full stop in any economic activity for about 4 months). Even then, we thought that the real apocalypse isn’t happening there, but a few hundred killometres away where civil wars were raging. Countries, economies and people survive far worse than an economic dispute between civilised nations. Fair enough, the pound might take a dip and some people will lose jobs, but that’s hardly apocalyptic.

YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago
The situation in Serbia back then may not have been perceived as an apocalypse (or not by some, anyway) but that is very far from perceiving it as harmless, or, even more absurdly, desirable. I'm Greek. The Crisis wasn't an apocalypse. We're still here. But we really didn't want all that to happen to us and nobody wants that happening to them, either. You know what I mean? If you cut my leg off I won't die, but I really, really don't want you to cut my leg off.
ben_w 8y ago
That is actually pretty close to one of the possibilities I see. I am so uncertain about what’s coming up that if someone asks me, I say: “Roll a D6. Roll 1, UK cancels Brexit Roll 2, UK goes into the EEA Roll 3, UK does whatever it takes to get a deal because the alternative is uncountenancable Roll 4, the cost of a deal deemed to be too high, no deal Brexit. Flights on hold until separate airspace law agreement produced; 2 GW HVDC link with France switched off until separate agreement arranged; shipping slowed by customs checks resulting in tailbacks containg essentially 100% of HGVs in the UK; brain drain and capital flight, possibility including the physical relocation of all equipment from certain factories in the UK to (say) Slovakia. Roll 5, same, but UK attempts to respond with the solution that worked in the Opium wars. UK military says “no” on grounds it would have to declare war on itself, much to the surprise of whoever is PM at that point. Roll 6: UK military says “yes” and then (the scenario you recalled happens to the UK).” I literally cannot make a better than even estimate for these outcomes, but I would be surprised if they are actually all 1/6 odds. Six months ago I was expecting all options would result in rioting and attemped arson by at least one group, possibly multiple opposing groups at the same time. Now, I am starting to think the mood is more mellow, as one pro-Brexit demonstration drew 4 people, including the 2 organisers. On the other hand, my response to Brexit has been to move to Berlin.

by adzicg 8y ago

YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago

The situation in Serbia back then may not have been perceived as an apocalypse (or not by some, anyway) but that is very far from perceiving it as harmless, or, even more absurdly, desirable. I'm Greek. The Crisis wasn't an apocalypse. We're still here. But we really didn't want all that to happen to us and nobody wants that happening to them, either. You know what I mean? If you cut my leg off I won't die, but I really, really don't want you to cut my leg off.

ben_w 8y ago

That is actually pretty close to one of the possibilities I see. I am so uncertain about what’s coming up that if someone asks me, I say: “Roll a D6. Roll 1, UK cancels Brexit Roll 2, UK goes into the EEA Roll 3, UK does whatever it takes to get a deal because the alternative is uncountenancable Roll 4, the cost of a deal deemed to be too high, no deal Brexit. Flights on hold until separate airspace law agreement produced; 2 GW HVDC link with France switched off until separate agreement arranged; shipping slowed by customs checks resulting in tailbacks containg essentially 100% of HGVs in the UK; brain drain and capital flight, possibility including the physical relocation of all equipment from certain factories in the UK to (say) Slovakia. Roll 5, same, but UK attempts to respond with the solution that worked in the Opium wars. UK military says “no” on grounds it would have to declare war on itself, much to the surprise of whoever is PM at that point. Roll 6: UK military says “yes” and then (the scenario you recalled happens to the UK).” I literally cannot make a better than even estimate for these outcomes, but I would be surprised if they are actually all 1/6 odds. Six months ago I was expecting all options would result in rioting and attemped arson by at least one group, possibly multiple opposing groups at the same time. Now, I am starting to think the mood is more mellow, as one pro-Brexit demonstration drew 4 people, including the 2 organisers. On the other hand, my response to Brexit has been to move to Berlin.