4 ms·

It's not just uncertain. The prospect of no-deal means an economic apocalypse in just over 4 months' time is a serious possibility.

jp555 8y ago
No deal would be a huge buying opportunity. Even in the worst case scenario, the UK is almost certainly not going to collapse. I mean it’s survived way worse times. It might take a beating, but it’ll figure it out.
- AndrewOMartin 8y ago
  Bring on the good "almost certainly not going to collapse" times.
  - hacknat 8y ago
    “When there’s blood in the streets, buy property.”
    - justincormack 8y ago
      UK property prices rarely fall much the market just becomes illiquid for long periods.
- NeedMoreTea 8y ago
  Worst case scenario? Significant employers and businesses leaving for other EU nations? Hundreds or thousands of UK business undervalued presenting buying opportunities? Hundreds or thousands that will almost certainly not be in the UK five years beyond purchase, except in a much reduced or sales-only capacity. See almost every foreign takeover in recorded history. Like in the 80s, when half of an entire generation could not get work, or the work they trained for. We'll figure it out, for sure. At an opportunity cost of tens of thousands of lives, and who knows how many anti-depressant prescriptions as well as monetary cost. So yeah a great buying opportunity for those who don't need to endure the consequences.
- YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago
  Sure. And Kazakhstan has survived worse times still. It's in way worse shape than the UK, in every aspect you want to compare. Maybe the UK after Brexit can survive like Kazakhstan survives? Or pick your (least) favourite nation that's in dire economic and social strates: DRC, Yemen, Myanmar, ... The UK will certainly survive. The question is: in what way.
  - rapsey 8y ago
    UK has strong economic fundamentals. It is in better shape to withstand uncertainty then undeveloped economies.
    - YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago
      My understanding is that UK economy is just as fragile and precarious as any in the developed world, which is to say, uncomfortably so. What do you consider to be strong economic fundamentals?
      - jp555 8y ago
        A few ideas that come to me are very strong institutions (rule of law, property rights, human rights, etc), extensive infrastructure (roads/transit, electricity, comms, etc), and a culture that supports and encourages free enterprise.
adzicg 8y ago
It’s always fun to hear how different perspectives make people consider different things apocalyptic. I’ve lived in Serbia throughout the stuff most of my British friends consider surreal and wouldn’t even imagine as a post-brexit crash, even in a no-deal scenario (the government just deciding to taking everone’s foreign currency savings one day, state-sponsored pyramid schemes, UN sanctions causing all the big industries to collapse, NATO bombing causing almost a full stop in any economic activity for about 4 months). Even then, we thought that the real apocalypse isn’t happening there, but a few hundred killometres away where civil wars were raging. Countries, economies and people survive far worse than an economic dispute between civilised nations. Fair enough, the pound might take a dip and some people will lose jobs, but that’s hardly apocalyptic.
- YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago
  The situation in Serbia back then may not have been perceived as an apocalypse (or not by some, anyway) but that is very far from perceiving it as harmless, or, even more absurdly, desirable. I'm Greek. The Crisis wasn't an apocalypse. We're still here. But we really didn't want all that to happen to us and nobody wants that happening to them, either. You know what I mean? If you cut my leg off I won't die, but I really, really don't want you to cut my leg off.
- ben_w 8y ago
  That is actually pretty close to one of the possibilities I see. I am so uncertain about what’s coming up that if someone asks me, I say: “Roll a D6. Roll 1, UK cancels Brexit Roll 2, UK goes into the EEA Roll 3, UK does whatever it takes to get a deal because the alternative is uncountenancable Roll 4, the cost of a deal deemed to be too high, no deal Brexit. Flights on hold until separate airspace law agreement produced; 2 GW HVDC link with France switched off until separate agreement arranged; shipping slowed by customs checks resulting in tailbacks containg essentially 100% of HGVs in the UK; brain drain and capital flight, possibility including the physical relocation of all equipment from certain factories in the UK to (say) Slovakia. Roll 5, same, but UK attempts to respond with the solution that worked in the Opium wars. UK military says “no” on grounds it would have to declare war on itself, much to the surprise of whoever is PM at that point. Roll 6: UK military says “yes” and then (the scenario you recalled happens to the UK).” I literally cannot make a better than even estimate for these outcomes, but I would be surprised if they are actually all 1/6 odds. Six months ago I was expecting all options would result in rioting and attemped arson by at least one group, possibly multiple opposing groups at the same time. Now, I am starting to think the mood is more mellow, as one pro-Brexit demonstration drew 4 people, including the 2 organisers. On the other hand, my response to Brexit has been to move to Berlin.

jp555 8y ago

No deal would be a huge buying opportunity. Even in the worst case scenario, the UK is almost certainly not going to collapse. I mean it’s survived way worse times. It might take a beating, but it’ll figure it out.

AndrewOMartin 8y ago
Bring on the good "almost certainly not going to collapse" times.
- hacknat 8y ago
  “When there’s blood in the streets, buy property.”
  - justincormack 8y ago
    UK property prices rarely fall much the market just becomes illiquid for long periods.
NeedMoreTea 8y ago
Worst case scenario? Significant employers and businesses leaving for other EU nations? Hundreds or thousands of UK business undervalued presenting buying opportunities? Hundreds or thousands that will almost certainly not be in the UK five years beyond purchase, except in a much reduced or sales-only capacity. See almost every foreign takeover in recorded history. Like in the 80s, when half of an entire generation could not get work, or the work they trained for. We'll figure it out, for sure. At an opportunity cost of tens of thousands of lives, and who knows how many anti-depressant prescriptions as well as monetary cost. So yeah a great buying opportunity for those who don't need to endure the consequences.
YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago
Sure. And Kazakhstan has survived worse times still. It's in way worse shape than the UK, in every aspect you want to compare. Maybe the UK after Brexit can survive like Kazakhstan survives? Or pick your (least) favourite nation that's in dire economic and social strates: DRC, Yemen, Myanmar, ... The UK will certainly survive. The question is: in what way.
- rapsey 8y ago
  UK has strong economic fundamentals. It is in better shape to withstand uncertainty then undeveloped economies.
  - YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago
    My understanding is that UK economy is just as fragile and precarious as any in the developed world, which is to say, uncomfortably so. What do you consider to be strong economic fundamentals?
    - jp555 8y ago
      A few ideas that come to me are very strong institutions (rule of law, property rights, human rights, etc), extensive infrastructure (roads/transit, electricity, comms, etc), and a culture that supports and encourages free enterprise.

adzicg 8y ago

It’s always fun to hear how different perspectives make people consider different things apocalyptic. I’ve lived in Serbia throughout the stuff most of my British friends consider surreal and wouldn’t even imagine as a post-brexit crash, even in a no-deal scenario (the government just deciding to taking everone’s foreign currency savings one day, state-sponsored pyramid schemes, UN sanctions causing all the big industries to collapse, NATO bombing causing almost a full stop in any economic activity for about 4 months). Even then, we thought that the real apocalypse isn’t happening there, but a few hundred killometres away where civil wars were raging. Countries, economies and people survive far worse than an economic dispute between civilised nations. Fair enough, the pound might take a dip and some people will lose jobs, but that’s hardly apocalyptic.

YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago
The situation in Serbia back then may not have been perceived as an apocalypse (or not by some, anyway) but that is very far from perceiving it as harmless, or, even more absurdly, desirable. I'm Greek. The Crisis wasn't an apocalypse. We're still here. But we really didn't want all that to happen to us and nobody wants that happening to them, either. You know what I mean? If you cut my leg off I won't die, but I really, really don't want you to cut my leg off.
ben_w 8y ago
That is actually pretty close to one of the possibilities I see. I am so uncertain about what’s coming up that if someone asks me, I say: “Roll a D6. Roll 1, UK cancels Brexit Roll 2, UK goes into the EEA Roll 3, UK does whatever it takes to get a deal because the alternative is uncountenancable Roll 4, the cost of a deal deemed to be too high, no deal Brexit. Flights on hold until separate airspace law agreement produced; 2 GW HVDC link with France switched off until separate agreement arranged; shipping slowed by customs checks resulting in tailbacks containg essentially 100% of HGVs in the UK; brain drain and capital flight, possibility including the physical relocation of all equipment from certain factories in the UK to (say) Slovakia. Roll 5, same, but UK attempts to respond with the solution that worked in the Opium wars. UK military says “no” on grounds it would have to declare war on itself, much to the surprise of whoever is PM at that point. Roll 6: UK military says “yes” and then (the scenario you recalled happens to the UK).” I literally cannot make a better than even estimate for these outcomes, but I would be surprised if they are actually all 1/6 odds. Six months ago I was expecting all options would result in rioting and attemped arson by at least one group, possibly multiple opposing groups at the same time. Now, I am starting to think the mood is more mellow, as one pro-Brexit demonstration drew 4 people, including the 2 organisers. On the other hand, my response to Brexit has been to move to Berlin.