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Microsoft knew all about Google Yahoo knew everything about Google Google knew everything about Facebook Intel knew everything about ARM Yet disruption ensu

Microsoft knew all about Google Yahoo knew everything about Google Google knew everything about Facebook Intel knew everything about ARM Yet disruption ensued. “Can’t be disrupted” is foolish.

AndrewKemendo 8y ago
This theory basically assumes that firms cannot get smarter over time. It assumes corporations will never get better at evaluating the market and their place in it, or have better information than previous generations. That's a dangerous assumption, and doesn't seem to jibe with what we see in practice.
- mattnewport 8y ago
  Here's something we see in practice: "- In 1965, the average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 was 33 years. By 1990, it was 20 years. It's forecast to shrink to 14 years by 2026. - About 50 percent of the S&P 500 will be replaced over the next 10 years, if Innosight's forecasted churn rate holds. " https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/innosight-sp-500-new-companies.html https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/innosight-sp-500-new-compan... What are you seeing in practice that makes you think the truth is the opposite of what this data suggests?
  - AndrewKemendo 8y ago
    Pretty simple, Consolidation. Companies that have information advantage will continue to push into new markets and absorb or kill incumbents. These are complimentary phenomenon actually.
    - mattnewport 8y ago
      So what is your claim here? That most companies haven't learned these lessons but those that have will assimilate or destroy the ones that don't? What would that look like in the statistics? Are there particular companies that you think are doing this successfully? The post you originally replied to mentioned Google and Facebook neither of which look like companies that have learned this lesson well enough to beat the trend. They both look to me like they have passed their peaks in many areas: - Innovation - Developer, public and political good will - Creating (rather than buying at great expense) successful new products - Self awareness
      - AndrewKemendo 8y ago
        That most companies haven't learned these lessons but those that have will assimilate or destroy the ones that don't? Precisely What would that look like in the statistics? Something like this: https://www.investopedia.com/news/5-companies-amazon-killing/ https://www.investopedia.com/news/5-companies-amazon-killing... Are there particular companies that you think are doing this successfully? FAANG are the examples here. Look at the top 10 most used apps[1]. 5/10 are Google owned 3/10 are Facebook owned 1 is owned by Apple Amazon in clearly leading here as it has 49% of the ecommerce market share. Microsoft has the vast majority of the IT ecosystem. Facebook the company is doing well in this area. Google is also doing well here. Creating (rather than buying at great expense) successful new products I'm not sure why "buying at great expense" is relevant here. At the end of the day it comes down to longevity. The longest lasting companies are ones which have bought themselves into relevancy. That's the whole point. They have the market capacity to buy out or crush their competition. Facebook used Instagram to crush Snapchat in pretty much every dimension because Snap wouldn't sell to them. All your other metrics are kind of random and I'm not sure if there is anything that says those things lead to longevity. The few companies who were good at this in the past (Standard Oil, Bell, Railroads) eventually got broken up by the government. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/most-used-smartphone-apps-2017-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/most-used-smartphone-apps-20...
        mattnewport 8y ago
        > At the end of the day it comes down to longevity. The longest lasting companies are ones which have bought themselves into relevancy. I think it's a little early to say whether Facebook or Google will have the kind of longevity of a GE, ExxonMobil or DuPont. Longevity on its own doesn't actually seem particularly interesting, what makes those three stand out is staying large and relevant for so long, not merely surviving. > All your other metrics are kind of random and I'm not sure if there is anything that says those things lead to longevity. The few companies who were good at this in the past (Standard Oil, Bell, Railroads) eventually got broken up by the government. My metrics were directed partly at that point. Microsoft was a more recent target of government. It looks much more likely today that Facebook, Google or Amazon would be targets of government action (with plenty of public support) than it did just a few years ago.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  "That's a dangerous assumption, and doesn't seem to jibe with what we see in practice." I see exactly this in practice. Big companies are usually totally lacking in self awareness on so many things. 'Good companies' have a strong sense of where they are, and can manage direct threats - I think FB is a good example. But more distant threats, I don't think so. And most companies are not 'good companies'. Nortel, Nokia, BlackBerry, Alcatel. Just to name a few.
  - beagle3 8y ago
    There's a piece in Andy Grove's book ("Only the paranoids survive") where tells about realizing that sales of memory are slowly going down - it's still comfortable for everyone, but at this right he will be fired by the board in a couple of years. So, he thinks "my replacement will get a carte blanche; what will they do?" and realizes that it would be "concentrate on microprocessors", a small but slowly growing Intel business -- a completely heretic, "hail mary" at a point that still doesn't seem so bad. So that's what he does. On the other hand, Intel sold their ARM business about 20 years ago because it had lower margins than they liked (and in fact, axed a lot of relatively low margin business). But, as they are slowly discovering - someone WILL eat your margins, if it isn't yourself, it is someone else.
hobofan 8y ago
Facebook knew everything about Snapchat, and they are currently crushing them. Microsoft at their core also wasn't disrupted by Google. Google at their core also wasn't disrupted by Facebook. They're all tech giants in the same (broad) industry, but they have widely varying products. Competitive BI certainly has its merits if you are trying to stay at the top of your field.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- beagle3 8y ago
  Off the top of my head, Facebook is, indeed, the only giant I can think of that has not yet been disrupted; snap is indeed being crushed. And, wrt the article, it’s not VC that gave Facebook the BI they needed to know it is happening, but rather Onavo - a BI/Spying startup masquerading as a vpn/compression suite, which Facebook purchased and which gave them insight into what their mobile users do on the internet other then facebook It’s not illegal, but it should have been.
  - hobofan 8y ago
    > Facebook is, indeed, the only giant I can think of that has not yet been disrupted It's also still the youngest one of them, but yes, for a company in the social networking space they've showed a lot of staying power (they could've already fallen to what could've become out of independent WhatsApp & Instagram). Facebook (and Google) only exist as they do today because an acquisition by Yahoo didn't happen, and I think they've internalized that.
- Xixi 8y ago
  Microsoft was definitely disrupted by Google: by Android. Everyone used to have a Windows PC on their desk, now everyone has an Android smartphone in their pocket. Discounting the affluent minority of Mac and iOS users of course... Windows used to be at the very heart of Microsoft strategy. They seem to have successfully managed to pivot away from it, but I still call that being disrupted.
Aloha 8y ago
Google (still) doesn't really compete with Microsoft - they're in related but different verticals, Google and Microsoft have different core businesses - while yes, they compete on the periphery, they're not in head to head competition, Microsofts successful business model soldiers on - no disruption really seen. Facebook and Google don't really compete either - again, related, but different verticals, Googles existing business model wasnt really disrupted by Facebook appearing on the scene. The majority of mobile processors prior to arm, wasn't Intel (it was 68k actually), again, no real disruption to the Intel Business Model. In almost every case you've presented, you act as if a major player was displaced from a market within which they were the incumbent leader - but in every case but yahoo - it was a new line of business opening up, due to changes in the market place - where a major player in a related marketplace failed to achieve dominance - in the case of Intel, it was quite by choice - Intel saw early on that it couldn't make the margins needed to sustain itself in the mobile processor world - and while there keeps being talk about ARM coming to the non-mobile marketplace, there has been little to no actual incursion there. The exception here is yahoo - Yahoo was pushed out of its core markets by the rise of google, where they competed head to head.
- beagle3 8y ago
  g-suite ate a huge chunk of Exchange's lunch, and a non-trivial part of the office lunch. ChromeOS ate a nontrivial part of Microsoft's OS business. Android completely obliterated any chance of a market MS had for phones. Chrome (and Firefox, which was effectively funded by Google for a long time) dethroned IE(and edge), almost to the point of irrelevance. It did not disrupt Microsoft's business model - but it ate huge chunks of it. Where Google didn't venture (e.g. database & server software), Microsoft is still extracting monopoly rent. Where it did (mobile OS), no one wanted Microsoft's offering, regardless of getting free money with it. Facebook and Google totally, completely, compete with each other. If you have on-line advertising spend, you decice on the facebook/google split. They are in exactly the same vertical - extremely directed and trackable on line advertising. Don't confuse "users" with "customers". Intel's business model was expensive high margin CPUs to all. They still do for servers. It was most definitely disrupted in the consumer space because phones exist - many people for which it would have been unthinkable a few years ago to have no PC/Laptop today, only have a phone, or have a very loe end laptop (which Intel makes very little on). > it was a new line of business opening up, due to changes in the market place - where a major player in a related marketplace failed to achieve dominance You have just given the usual definition of disruption. I agree existing markets were not overtaken. Mobile phones disrupted the land line business, even though that one is still alive. Linux disrupted the proprietary OS bbusines, even though that one is still alive. Amazon disrupted commerce. Facebook killed myspace, and yahoo participated in its own killing. And there's definitely disruption all over.

Microsoft knew all about Google Yahoo knew everything about Google Google knew everything about Facebook Intel knew everything about ARM Yet disruption ensued. “Can’t be disrupted” is foolish.

AndrewKemendo 8y ago

This theory basically assumes that firms cannot get smarter over time. It assumes corporations will never get better at evaluating the market and their place in it, or have better information than previous generations. That's a dangerous assumption, and doesn't seem to jibe with what we see in practice.

mattnewport 8y ago
Here's something we see in practice: "- In 1965, the average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 was 33 years. By 1990, it was 20 years. It's forecast to shrink to 14 years by 2026. - About 50 percent of the S&P 500 will be replaced over the next 10 years, if Innosight's forecasted churn rate holds. " https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/innosight-sp-500-new-companies.html https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/innosight-sp-500-new-compan... What are you seeing in practice that makes you think the truth is the opposite of what this data suggests?
- AndrewKemendo 8y ago
  Pretty simple, Consolidation. Companies that have information advantage will continue to push into new markets and absorb or kill incumbents. These are complimentary phenomenon actually.
  - mattnewport 8y ago
    So what is your claim here? That most companies haven't learned these lessons but those that have will assimilate or destroy the ones that don't? What would that look like in the statistics? Are there particular companies that you think are doing this successfully? The post you originally replied to mentioned Google and Facebook neither of which look like companies that have learned this lesson well enough to beat the trend. They both look to me like they have passed their peaks in many areas: - Innovation - Developer, public and political good will - Creating (rather than buying at great expense) successful new products - Self awareness
    - AndrewKemendo 8y ago
      That most companies haven't learned these lessons but those that have will assimilate or destroy the ones that don't? Precisely What would that look like in the statistics? Something like this: https://www.investopedia.com/news/5-companies-amazon-killing/ https://www.investopedia.com/news/5-companies-amazon-killing... Are there particular companies that you think are doing this successfully? FAANG are the examples here. Look at the top 10 most used apps[1]. 5/10 are Google owned 3/10 are Facebook owned 1 is owned by Apple Amazon in clearly leading here as it has 49% of the ecommerce market share. Microsoft has the vast majority of the IT ecosystem. Facebook the company is doing well in this area. Google is also doing well here. Creating (rather than buying at great expense) successful new products I'm not sure why "buying at great expense" is relevant here. At the end of the day it comes down to longevity. The longest lasting companies are ones which have bought themselves into relevancy. That's the whole point. They have the market capacity to buy out or crush their competition. Facebook used Instagram to crush Snapchat in pretty much every dimension because Snap wouldn't sell to them. All your other metrics are kind of random and I'm not sure if there is anything that says those things lead to longevity. The few companies who were good at this in the past (Standard Oil, Bell, Railroads) eventually got broken up by the government. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/most-used-smartphone-apps-2017-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/most-used-smartphone-apps-20...
      - mattnewport 8y ago
        > At the end of the day it comes down to longevity. The longest lasting companies are ones which have bought themselves into relevancy. I think it's a little early to say whether Facebook or Google will have the kind of longevity of a GE, ExxonMobil or DuPont. Longevity on its own doesn't actually seem particularly interesting, what makes those three stand out is staying large and relevant for so long, not merely surviving. > All your other metrics are kind of random and I'm not sure if there is anything that says those things lead to longevity. The few companies who were good at this in the past (Standard Oil, Bell, Railroads) eventually got broken up by the government. My metrics were directed partly at that point. Microsoft was a more recent target of government. It looks much more likely today that Facebook, Google or Amazon would be targets of government action (with plenty of public support) than it did just a few years ago.
sonnyblarney 8y ago
"That's a dangerous assumption, and doesn't seem to jibe with what we see in practice." I see exactly this in practice. Big companies are usually totally lacking in self awareness on so many things. 'Good companies' have a strong sense of where they are, and can manage direct threats - I think FB is a good example. But more distant threats, I don't think so. And most companies are not 'good companies'. Nortel, Nokia, BlackBerry, Alcatel. Just to name a few.
- beagle3 8y ago
  There's a piece in Andy Grove's book ("Only the paranoids survive") where tells about realizing that sales of memory are slowly going down - it's still comfortable for everyone, but at this right he will be fired by the board in a couple of years. So, he thinks "my replacement will get a carte blanche; what will they do?" and realizes that it would be "concentrate on microprocessors", a small but slowly growing Intel business -- a completely heretic, "hail mary" at a point that still doesn't seem so bad. So that's what he does. On the other hand, Intel sold their ARM business about 20 years ago because it had lower margins than they liked (and in fact, axed a lot of relatively low margin business). But, as they are slowly discovering - someone WILL eat your margins, if it isn't yourself, it is someone else.

hobofan 8y ago

Facebook knew everything about Snapchat, and they are currently crushing them. Microsoft at their core also wasn't disrupted by Google. Google at their core also wasn't disrupted by Facebook. They're all tech giants in the same (broad) industry, but they have widely varying products. Competitive BI certainly has its merits if you are trying to stay at the top of your field.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
beagle3 8y ago
Off the top of my head, Facebook is, indeed, the only giant I can think of that has not yet been disrupted; snap is indeed being crushed. And, wrt the article, it’s not VC that gave Facebook the BI they needed to know it is happening, but rather Onavo - a BI/Spying startup masquerading as a vpn/compression suite, which Facebook purchased and which gave them insight into what their mobile users do on the internet other then facebook It’s not illegal, but it should have been.
- hobofan 8y ago
  > Facebook is, indeed, the only giant I can think of that has not yet been disrupted It's also still the youngest one of them, but yes, for a company in the social networking space they've showed a lot of staying power (they could've already fallen to what could've become out of independent WhatsApp & Instagram). Facebook (and Google) only exist as they do today because an acquisition by Yahoo didn't happen, and I think they've internalized that.
Xixi 8y ago
Microsoft was definitely disrupted by Google: by Android. Everyone used to have a Windows PC on their desk, now everyone has an Android smartphone in their pocket. Discounting the affluent minority of Mac and iOS users of course... Windows used to be at the very heart of Microsoft strategy. They seem to have successfully managed to pivot away from it, but I still call that being disrupted.

Aloha 8y ago

Google (still) doesn't really compete with Microsoft - they're in related but different verticals, Google and Microsoft have different core businesses - while yes, they compete on the periphery, they're not in head to head competition, Microsofts successful business model soldiers on - no disruption really seen. Facebook and Google don't really compete either - again, related, but different verticals, Googles existing business model wasnt really disrupted by Facebook appearing on the scene. The majority of mobile processors prior to arm, wasn't Intel (it was 68k actually), again, no real disruption to the Intel Business Model. In almost every case you've presented, you act as if a major player was displaced from a market within which they were the incumbent leader - but in every case but yahoo - it was a new line of business opening up, due to changes in the market place - where a major player in a related marketplace failed to achieve dominance - in the case of Intel, it was quite by choice - Intel saw early on that it couldn't make the margins needed to sustain itself in the mobile processor world - and while there keeps being talk about ARM coming to the non-mobile marketplace, there has been little to no actual incursion there. The exception here is yahoo - Yahoo was pushed out of its core markets by the rise of google, where they competed head to head.

beagle3 8y ago
g-suite ate a huge chunk of Exchange's lunch, and a non-trivial part of the office lunch. ChromeOS ate a nontrivial part of Microsoft's OS business. Android completely obliterated any chance of a market MS had for phones. Chrome (and Firefox, which was effectively funded by Google for a long time) dethroned IE(and edge), almost to the point of irrelevance. It did not disrupt Microsoft's business model - but it ate huge chunks of it. Where Google didn't venture (e.g. database & server software), Microsoft is still extracting monopoly rent. Where it did (mobile OS), no one wanted Microsoft's offering, regardless of getting free money with it. Facebook and Google totally, completely, compete with each other. If you have on-line advertising spend, you decice on the facebook/google split. They are in exactly the same vertical - extremely directed and trackable on line advertising. Don't confuse "users" with "customers". Intel's business model was expensive high margin CPUs to all. They still do for servers. It was most definitely disrupted in the consumer space because phones exist - many people for which it would have been unthinkable a few years ago to have no PC/Laptop today, only have a phone, or have a very loe end laptop (which Intel makes very little on). > it was a new line of business opening up, due to changes in the market place - where a major player in a related marketplace failed to achieve dominance You have just given the usual definition of disruption. I agree existing markets were not overtaken. Mobile phones disrupted the land line business, even though that one is still alive. Linux disrupted the proprietary OS bbusines, even though that one is still alive. Amazon disrupted commerce. Facebook killed myspace, and yahoo participated in its own killing. And there's definitely disruption all over.