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Utterly fanciful speculation here, but my impression was many of the current scandals facing Facebook are to determine whether Zuck can be marginalized into a n
by motohagiography 8y ago
Utterly fanciful speculation here, but my impression was many of the current scandals facing Facebook are to determine whether Zuck can be marginalized into a non-operational Bill Gates-like role, making room for Sandberg to become Internet Queen. I only half joke, but it's an immensely powerful global role, but senior geeks within FB are still a bit idealistic and principled and will defer to Zuck on any of her ambitions to operate FB like the institutions she cut her teeth at, e.g. as a private state department, or a para-governmental agency, like something with the power of the Fed but for global politics.
This caps her ability to wield FB's political power to its fullest extent, and for someone of her calibre, she's only going to see it as a constraint in the way of her full potential.
If Zuck manages to weather the scandals, it means she needs to be thinking about what's next, as she's not going to be content as #2. The most obvious "next," given her background and record was the democratic nomination to make a cakewalk run for president in 2020. 2016 made it obvious it's anyone's to lose, but the firmness of the ceiling at FB needed to be proven out first. E.g. ruling out internet queen before giving up one of the most powerful private sector jobs on earth on a presidential run. That's why we saw Zuck pushed to the fore earlier this year, because if he was vulnerable to being politically isolated (and sent out to philanthropic pasture), that opportunity would mean growth within FB for Sandberg.
Turns out, dude is made of teflon, and then something else happened.
The mid-terms mediocre showing (e.g. no blue landslide) means the competition for the 2020 nomination is suddenly less urgent because the president still has a reasonable chance of re-election. Democrats will field good candidates, but nobody is going to give up a global power role to take the chance while the president's base is holding. Certainly not the sort of chances you'd give up being internet queen for.
So, by this view, expect the FB scandals to fall off because Sandberg has always been capable of single handedly containing them, and only while she made her decision about 2020 was it briefly useful to expose Zuck to the elements and see if he survived. Now that the mid-terms have taken 2020 off the table, she can use her role to build a juggernaut base of operations for a 2024 run.
I'm not involved at all, to the point where this borders on weird fanfic, but reading the tea leaves, in her position, what else would you do?
- patrickg_zill 8y agoThere is absolutely no chance of Sandberg putting together an effective run for president. Further I can't see a reason why this would be the most likely scenario. Get out of the SV/HN hothouse and talk to some people who are not in tech.