Of course this data is presented in hindsight. If expected value of a return on a company is the probability it's the next G times the percent you own: E[Retur

Of course this data is presented in hindsight. If expected value of a return on a company is the probability it's the next G times the percent you own: E[Return] ~= E[Company] X %Owned And E[Company] = P(Company=NextGoogle) X Value(NextGoogle) If you invest in a portfolio of companies, then you'd try to control the things you can: 1) P(NextGoogle): Impossible to estimate, look for good founders 2) Value(NextGoogle): maximize this (look for big markets) 3) %Owned: maximize this Note that YC does (1) and (3). I would argue they don't do (2) at all. Noone thought AirBnb would be as big as it is, but they're crushing it.