The efficient market theory doesn't say that the market predicts winners. It says that the market reflects all known (or knowable, depending on version) inform

The efficient market theory doesn't say that the market predicts winners. It says that the market reflects all known (or knowable, depending on version) information. Actually, it doesn't say exactly that either, it says that prices reflect valuation (which is affected by knowledge) and resources. Sometimes "we" don't know, or the people who do know don't have enough resources to push the rest of us to the appropriate conclusion.