This is very similar to the sunrise problem. Laplace said the probability of the sun rising tomorrow is (k+1)/(k+2), where k is the number of days we know the s

This is very similar to the sunrise problem. Laplace said the probability of the sun rising tomorrow is (k+1)/(k+2), where k is the number of days we know the sun has risen consecutively, if we always saw it rise, and if we don't have any other information. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunrise_problem https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunrise_problem