4 ms·

But still the total number of cars e.g. in Germany has been rising in the last few years: http://www.geodaten.guetersloh.de/umweltdaten/umweltd/daten/1201_C4_Fa

But still the total number of cars e.g. in Germany has been rising in the last few years: http://www.geodaten.guetersloh.de/umweltdaten/umweltd/daten/1201_C4_Fahrzeugbestand_Bund.gif http://www.geodaten.guetersloh.de/umweltdaten/umweltd/daten/... The only decline in car ownership was in 2008, and that was because of the financial crisis, not because of great public transport (which has actually been getting worse in my city in the last few years). The story that people are giving up cars in masses is mostly a myth, even though it might look like that if you live in certain bubbles in the largest cities.

wongarsu 8y ago
If a middle income family gets a second and sometimes even third car that doesn't necessarily translate into a proportional increase in kilometres driven. If enough families get additional cars that could also easily offset whatever young people are doing. It's more complex than "there are more cars, thus people giving up cars is not a trend"
- ineedasername 8y ago
  But are middle class families getting second and third cars at higher rates? It's a plausible explantion if true, but I haven't seen any evidence of it.
- rsync 8y ago
  "If a middle income family gets a second and sometimes even third car that doesn't necessarily translate into a proportional increase in kilometres driven." True, but the embedded carbon cost of each additional vehicle is roughly equal to 10-12 years of driving that vehicle.
  - petre 8y ago
    Don't worry. It eventually gets sold to less fortunate people second hand.
  - your-nanny 8y ago
    new vehicle. but used? lots of second cars are beaters. does demand in the used market induce manufacture of more cars? hard to see how.
  - D_Alex 8y ago
    > the embedded carbon cost of each additional vehicle is roughly equal to 10-12 years of driving that vehicle This is not really true, though you can adopt certain extreme assumptions that would support such a claim. Using statistically average assumptions (12 tonnes of embedded carbon/"average" car, 180 g CO2/km, 14,000 km/year) results in DIRECT CO2 emissions from burning the fuel alone to be roughly equal to 5 years of use. But to get a like for like comparison, you should add the embedded emissions in producing the fuel, car service and maintenance, accidents, infrastructure costs etc... under such considerations the embedded carbon cost of the vehicle will roughly equal to 2-3 years of use. FWIW.
sisidjdif 8y ago
While I agree that it’s mostly a myth I’d like to add to wongaru; we’re a one car family (my wife works at home). I flirt with the idea of being a two car family but we’d barely use the extra car. On the other hand, if there was a way for me to get to work with public means, I’d do it (28 miles/day commute) I’d still keep my car and still flirt with the idea of having an extra beater (I.e an extra car for the wife) lying around for weekends [1] I wor the day that I loose my ICE car though. The ICE car, if terrible, is one of the most important tools for the maintenance d liberty (with no AI, of course). As an example, the pentagon papers would not have been published (and therefore hasten the end of the Vietnam war) if not for the mighty station wagon. [1] when you have kids having either parent able to take the kid out to an event and maintain the other’s ability to go to stores quickly is a massive increase in flexibility.
- ced 8y ago
  Eh, that is certainly true in the suburbs, but we live in the city with a child and no car. We can buy 99% of what we want within walking distance. Bigger items we would have delivered. If I had a driving license (which I would if it wasn't such a costly hassle in my province), I would rent a car occasionally. Metro + bus + walk + bike in the summer is completely fine otherwise.
pjc50 8y ago
I suspect that's an inequality thing - more people with second or third cars, not a growth in the number of households with a car.

wongarsu 8y ago

If a middle income family gets a second and sometimes even third car that doesn't necessarily translate into a proportional increase in kilometres driven. If enough families get additional cars that could also easily offset whatever young people are doing. It's more complex than "there are more cars, thus people giving up cars is not a trend"

ineedasername 8y ago
But are middle class families getting second and third cars at higher rates? It's a plausible explantion if true, but I haven't seen any evidence of it.
rsync 8y ago
"If a middle income family gets a second and sometimes even third car that doesn't necessarily translate into a proportional increase in kilometres driven." True, but the embedded carbon cost of each additional vehicle is roughly equal to 10-12 years of driving that vehicle.
- petre 8y ago
  Don't worry. It eventually gets sold to less fortunate people second hand.
- your-nanny 8y ago
  new vehicle. but used? lots of second cars are beaters. does demand in the used market induce manufacture of more cars? hard to see how.
- D_Alex 8y ago
  > the embedded carbon cost of each additional vehicle is roughly equal to 10-12 years of driving that vehicle This is not really true, though you can adopt certain extreme assumptions that would support such a claim. Using statistically average assumptions (12 tonnes of embedded carbon/"average" car, 180 g CO2/km, 14,000 km/year) results in DIRECT CO2 emissions from burning the fuel alone to be roughly equal to 5 years of use. But to get a like for like comparison, you should add the embedded emissions in producing the fuel, car service and maintenance, accidents, infrastructure costs etc... under such considerations the embedded carbon cost of the vehicle will roughly equal to 2-3 years of use. FWIW.

sisidjdif 8y ago

While I agree that it’s mostly a myth I’d like to add to wongaru; we’re a one car family (my wife works at home). I flirt with the idea of being a two car family but we’d barely use the extra car. On the other hand, if there was a way for me to get to work with public means, I’d do it (28 miles/day commute) I’d still keep my car and still flirt with the idea of having an extra beater (I.e an extra car for the wife) lying around for weekends [1] I wor the day that I loose my ICE car though. The ICE car, if terrible, is one of the most important tools for the maintenance d liberty (with no AI, of course). As an example, the pentagon papers would not have been published (and therefore hasten the end of the Vietnam war) if not for the mighty station wagon. [1] when you have kids having either parent able to take the kid out to an event and maintain the other’s ability to go to stores quickly is a massive increase in flexibility.

ced 8y ago
Eh, that is certainly true in the suburbs, but we live in the city with a child and no car. We can buy 99% of what we want within walking distance. Bigger items we would have delivered. If I had a driving license (which I would if it wasn't such a costly hassle in my province), I would rent a car occasionally. Metro + bus + walk + bike in the summer is completely fine otherwise.

pjc50 8y ago

I suspect that's an inequality thing - more people with second or third cars, not a growth in the number of households with a car.