>The whole point is you can't actually compute it. You can't compute the probability. But you can compute an upper bound on the probability with a reasonable c

>The whole point is you can't actually compute it. You can't compute the probability. But you can compute an upper bound on the probability with a reasonable confidence, which is what the author is doing here. This is standard statistics and might be useful in some cases. It does assume that the events are independent, but this is a pretty standard assumption that you have to check whether it applies in your case, or at least approximately applies in your case. >What he's doing here isn't science, it's a guess. Which is a pretty big thing in this subfield mathematics called statistics.