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Japan has been a power ( relatively speaking ) in the aerospace industry for very a long time and it was never a secret and they certainly weren't quiet about i

Japan has been a power ( relatively speaking ) in the aerospace industry for very a long time and it was never a secret and they certainly weren't quiet about it. What they have been quiet about is that their aerospace industry is also used to maintain a quasi military/icbm capability. Just like japan's is open about it's nuclear industry but quiet about the fact that their nuclear industry is used to maintain their latent/defacto nuclear power status. But then again, all aerospace industries and all nuclear industries are also linked to the military everywhere. Japan has been the 2nd or 3rd largest economy in the world for 50 years. JAXA, after NASA and ESA, is probably the most technical advanced, well funded and respected space agencies in the world. A nation can't have such a large economy for this long without being a "power" ( relatively speaking ) in most sectors. Japan, despite its pacifist constitution, also has one of the best funded militaries as well.

SiempreViernes 8y ago
Are you saying that Japan has a covert nuclear weapons program?
- detaro 8y ago
  Japan is considered a de-facto nuclear power because they do not need a covert nuclear weapons program right now. They're advanced enough and have the materials and infrastructure that if they ever decide to abandon current policy of "we do not want nukes being made or stationed in Japan" they can become an actual nuclear power within a year or so.
  - le-mark 8y ago
    So enriched uranium or plutonium on hand? Because it would take time to build all that infrastructure; my understanding at least.
    - detaro 8y ago
      They have enrichment facilities (for reprocessing spent fuel) with over-capacities, and a pretty large stockpile of material. I.e. https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newsjapan-revises-plutonium-guidelines-6284647 https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newsjapan-revises-plutonium...
    - jbay808 8y ago
      The main obstacle is cultural. Even contemplating the building of nuclear weapons is considered a deep disrespect to the memory of the people who died in the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There would be a lot of domestic opposition to any such project, and it might even be difficult to recruit people and companies to contribute to it, because involvement in that work could harm their reputation. But they definitely aren't lacking the technological, material, or financial ability. (Source: lived in Japan and discussed this with various engineers there)
    - pfdietz 8y ago
      Japan, at the end of 2017, had a stockpile of 47.3 tons of reactor grade plutonium separated from spent LWR fuel. This material is not ideal for nuclear weapons, but it CAN be used to make them.
- hindsightbias 8y ago
  Japan has had all the pieces for a very long time - as an obvious capability to rapidly counter any threat from China if they had to go it alone. We (and France I believe) shipped them reprocessed plutonium in the 80's for "breeder research." One of the Fukushima reactors held a lot of that store. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/07/07/editorials/reducing-japans-plutonium-stock/#.W-7yDi-ZOAw https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/07/07/editorials/r... "Today, the plutonium stockpile has reached 47 tons, including 37 tons stored in Britain and France, which have been commissioned to reprocess spent fuel from Japan’s nuclear power plants."
- philipkglass 8y ago
  Japan may be considered a "virtual" nuclear weapons state because it already has delivery systems, separated plutonium, and the industrial/technical capabilities to quickly weaponize that plutonium should it need to. Japan's plutonium is reprocessed from commercial reactors and is not "weapons grade." This is a bit of a misnomer, however: weapons grade plutonium is really good for making weapons because it has a low concentration of the isotope plutonium 240. Pu-240 undergoes spontaneous fission frequently enough that it makes a pre-detonation "fizzle" (bomb blows itself too quickly to achieve useful yield) likely in a simple bomb design like that used during World War II. "Supergrade" plutonium, especially pure Pu-239, is also desirable for submarine-launched weapons because it reduces crew exposure to radiation from the stored warheads. It is however technically feasible to make effective weapons from "reactor grade" plutonium containing more Pu-240 if the weapons designer invests in more sophisticated features like deuterium-tritium boosting of the fission device. To quote Carey Sublette's excellent Nuclear Weapons FAQ, "The fusion reaction rate typically becomes significant at 20-30 million degrees K. This temperature is reached at very low efficiencies, when less than 1% of the fissile material has fissioned (corresponding to a yield in the range of hundreds of tons). Since implosion weapons can be designed that will achieve yields in this range even if neutrons are present a the moment of criticality, fusion boosting allows the manufacture of efficient weapons that are immune to predetonation. Elimination of this hazard is a very important advantage in using boosting. It appears that every weapon now in the U.S. arsenal is a boosted design." (My emphasis.) https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq4-3.html https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq4-3.html Japan could produce its own tritium by irradiation of natural lithium targets in commercial power reactors. It takes maybe 3 grams of tritium to make an efficient boosted weapon. Japan has enough plutonium for perhaps a thousand boosted-fission weapons in the 100 kiloton yield range, comparable in yield (if not efficiency) to France's latest submarine-launched warheads. I don't think it can produce tritium fast enough to supply a large number of weapons, given tritium's short half life and Japan's small number of operating reactors, but many reactors idled post-Fukushima are still in working condition and could be started up again in an emergency. Further, an opponent that does not consider dozens of nuclear weapons a rational deterrent is unlikely to be deterred by hundreds either, so Japan may not need many weapons to demonstrate a credible deterrent.
tyu1000 8y ago
There's also for a long time been a tacit protectionist agreement with Boeing that as long as Japanese airliners buy a lot of jets Boeing will produce a lot of components in Japan.
- rangibaby 8y ago
  It extends to military too. The Mitsubishi F-2 was the F-35 of it’s day, which was great for everyone (except the taxpayer)

SiempreViernes 8y ago

Are you saying that Japan has a covert nuclear weapons program?

detaro 8y ago
Japan is considered a de-facto nuclear power because they do not need a covert nuclear weapons program right now. They're advanced enough and have the materials and infrastructure that if they ever decide to abandon current policy of "we do not want nukes being made or stationed in Japan" they can become an actual nuclear power within a year or so.
- le-mark 8y ago
  So enriched uranium or plutonium on hand? Because it would take time to build all that infrastructure; my understanding at least.
  - detaro 8y ago
    They have enrichment facilities (for reprocessing spent fuel) with over-capacities, and a pretty large stockpile of material. I.e. https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newsjapan-revises-plutonium-guidelines-6284647 https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newsjapan-revises-plutonium...
  - jbay808 8y ago
    The main obstacle is cultural. Even contemplating the building of nuclear weapons is considered a deep disrespect to the memory of the people who died in the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There would be a lot of domestic opposition to any such project, and it might even be difficult to recruit people and companies to contribute to it, because involvement in that work could harm their reputation. But they definitely aren't lacking the technological, material, or financial ability. (Source: lived in Japan and discussed this with various engineers there)
  - pfdietz 8y ago
    Japan, at the end of 2017, had a stockpile of 47.3 tons of reactor grade plutonium separated from spent LWR fuel. This material is not ideal for nuclear weapons, but it CAN be used to make them.
hindsightbias 8y ago
Japan has had all the pieces for a very long time - as an obvious capability to rapidly counter any threat from China if they had to go it alone. We (and France I believe) shipped them reprocessed plutonium in the 80's for "breeder research." One of the Fukushima reactors held a lot of that store. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/07/07/editorials/reducing-japans-plutonium-stock/#.W-7yDi-ZOAw https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/07/07/editorials/r... "Today, the plutonium stockpile has reached 47 tons, including 37 tons stored in Britain and France, which have been commissioned to reprocess spent fuel from Japan’s nuclear power plants."
philipkglass 8y ago
Japan may be considered a "virtual" nuclear weapons state because it already has delivery systems, separated plutonium, and the industrial/technical capabilities to quickly weaponize that plutonium should it need to. Japan's plutonium is reprocessed from commercial reactors and is not "weapons grade." This is a bit of a misnomer, however: weapons grade plutonium is really good for making weapons because it has a low concentration of the isotope plutonium 240. Pu-240 undergoes spontaneous fission frequently enough that it makes a pre-detonation "fizzle" (bomb blows itself too quickly to achieve useful yield) likely in a simple bomb design like that used during World War II. "Supergrade" plutonium, especially pure Pu-239, is also desirable for submarine-launched weapons because it reduces crew exposure to radiation from the stored warheads. It is however technically feasible to make effective weapons from "reactor grade" plutonium containing more Pu-240 if the weapons designer invests in more sophisticated features like deuterium-tritium boosting of the fission device. To quote Carey Sublette's excellent Nuclear Weapons FAQ, "The fusion reaction rate typically becomes significant at 20-30 million degrees K. This temperature is reached at very low efficiencies, when less than 1% of the fissile material has fissioned (corresponding to a yield in the range of hundreds of tons). Since implosion weapons can be designed that will achieve yields in this range even if neutrons are present a the moment of criticality, fusion boosting allows the manufacture of efficient weapons that are immune to predetonation. Elimination of this hazard is a very important advantage in using boosting. It appears that every weapon now in the U.S. arsenal is a boosted design." (My emphasis.) https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq4-3.html https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq4-3.html Japan could produce its own tritium by irradiation of natural lithium targets in commercial power reactors. It takes maybe 3 grams of tritium to make an efficient boosted weapon. Japan has enough plutonium for perhaps a thousand boosted-fission weapons in the 100 kiloton yield range, comparable in yield (if not efficiency) to France's latest submarine-launched warheads. I don't think it can produce tritium fast enough to supply a large number of weapons, given tritium's short half life and Japan's small number of operating reactors, but many reactors idled post-Fukushima are still in working condition and could be started up again in an emergency. Further, an opponent that does not consider dozens of nuclear weapons a rational deterrent is unlikely to be deterred by hundreds either, so Japan may not need many weapons to demonstrate a credible deterrent.

tyu1000 8y ago

There's also for a long time been a tacit protectionist agreement with Boeing that as long as Japanese airliners buy a lot of jets Boeing will produce a lot of components in Japan.

rangibaby 8y ago
It extends to military too. The Mitsubishi F-2 was the F-35 of it’s day, which was great for everyone (except the taxpayer)