Completely wrong. Continued survival of given that gives no information at all of survival rates and its distribution. This is because variability of data input

Completely wrong. Continued survival of given that gives no information at all of survival rates and its distribution. This is because variability of data input is extremely low so mutual information between each of the days is vanishingly small. This is why a good experimental design will observe a measurement with some expected variability. An even better trick is the sleeping beauty problem. To solve it you need external information.