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If you're truly estimating, though, wouldn't you use a 50% confidence interval — which gives you the rule of 1 (chances of the thing being true are 1/n — if you
by neolefty 8y ago
If you're truly estimating, though, wouldn't you use a 50% confidence interval — which gives you the rule of 1 (chances of the thing being true are 1/n — if you've seen 20 pages without a typo, chances are 1/20 that there's a typo on a page, with 50% confidence)?
- hawkice 8y agoSo, for a 50% confidence interval, you could look at the first word -- if it is a typo, boom, done. Otherwise, flip a coin. This stinks. Estimating is about approximating an answer with low information -- it's about efficiency of using data, not _only_ doing better than guessing.
- neolefty 8y agoSorry, I meant once you've examined n trials, what is your 50% confidence interval about the odds for a single trial? I think it would be 1/n.
- SamReidHughes 8y agoYes. That's a very reasonable choice.