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The article is confusing, and the rule doesn't actually have anything to do with the odds of never finding an error. This rule lets you calculate a likely ceili
by yellowstuff 8y ago
The article is confusing, and the rule doesn't actually have anything to do with the odds of never finding an error. This rule lets you calculate a likely ceiling on the probability of there being an error on the next page, assuming you make some assumptions that nothing tricky is going on.
So after reading 20 pages with no errors and having no other information the odds of finding an error on the next page are no more than 1/60. If you have 19,800 more pages left you'd expect to find no more than about 330 errors.
- jrumbut 8y agoI believe the reason for bringing in the idea of there being no typos in the entire book is to show how you aren't able to reason well without some change in your approach. Of course, the comments here suggest that it just makes the whole concept confusing to an audience who should either already know about confidence intervals or be well prepared to learn about them.