7 ms·

I ride a motorcycle every day as my primary way of commuting to work. The only time in 10+ years I've been in a serious accident is when inattentive car driver

by extesy 8y ago

I ride a motorcycle every day as my primary way of commuting to work. The only time in 10+ years I've been in a serious accident is when inattentive car driver rear-ended me on a highway. In his own words: "but I didn't see you". In the bright daylight. I was wearing hi-viz jacket. So I am super excited about any substantial progress in self-driving cars deployment.

cheeze 8y ago
Fun fact, you're ~25 times more likely to die on a motorcycle mile for mile than a car. Stay safe out there.
- jfoster 8y ago
  I wonder how it breaks down for motorcycles. Some part of the danger is because you're vulnerable and you're riding among big metal objects (cars). Another part of the stats would be explained by dangerous riding (speeding and such). The other part would be that motorcycles are just quite dangerous by themselves given that there's no crumple zones or shielding when you're on a bike. Autonomous vehicles should eventually result in cyclists and motorcyclists being safer, but perhaps not completely.
  - phinnaeus 8y ago
    Stability is another huge concern for motorcycles. If you lose traction on just one of your wheels, you could crash. While losing traction on 2 or maybe even 3 wheels in a car is much easier to recover.
  - Gustomaximus 8y ago
    Before I went for a motorbike licence I research some of these stats. - A decent proportion of accidents are on unregistered bikes or riding while drinking. - Speeding, as always - A big risk factor is older people returning to motorbike riding as they remember their old skills but dont have them any more. - Having ABS is something like a 30% accident reduction. There's still a bunch of risk on a bike but for someone sensible you can improve your odds a fair way. Though I guess you could argue that personality would likely have well reduced odd than average in a car too so its still a relative increase...
    - rconti 8y ago
      When I started riding, I noticed the same thing. The HURT report shows unlicensed/uninsured young people (I was 28 when I got my license) as being so massively overrepresented in motorcycle injuries that it was mind boggling.
      - raverbashing 8y ago
        Sad, but it also means more organ donors.
  - freerobby 8y ago
    If you read the report, you'll find motorcyclists are more likely than car drivers to speed, drive drunk, and do both at the same time. And they frequently don't wear helmets. There's no way to make motorcycling as safe as driving, but last time I did the math I found you can recover almost an entire order of magnitude just by obeying the law and wearing a full face helmet. And there's plenty more you can do from there -- take an MSF course, avoid congested areas during your first year on two wheels, and get a modern bike with ABS. Statistically speaking, the benefits of all these things are compounding.
    - Swizec 8y ago
      According to my recent MSF course somewhere around 60% of motorcycle fatalities and serious injuries are self inflicted. Some 40% involve more than 0 alcohol. Nothing made me feel safer on my new motorcycle than learning that stat. Don’t do dumb shit and your personal danger per mile can be quite okay. Also you’re most likely to die in your first and your third year. Then the probability drops off a cliff.
      - wingerlang 8y ago
        First and third? What about the second
        Swizec 8y ago
        Lower chance than first and third. First year you’re a newb and likely to make mistakes. Third year you get confident and sloppy and likely to make mistakes. Most common way to die is running off the road when going too fast into a corner. Followed by being too aggressive in intersections and failing to avoid other people making mistakes or not seeing you. If a car forces right of way and you could’ve stopped but didn’t, it’s your fault. Even tho legally it’s their fault but you’re the one with less crumple zones so you gotta drive defensively.
        sowbug 8y ago
        Likely the same effect as airplane pilots, where the 100th through 250th flight hours of your career are the most dangerous. Stage 1: unskilled, unaware => die Stage 2: unskilled, aware => not die Stage 3: unskilled, confident => die Stage 4: skilled => live Difference is that certificated flight instructors won't let you solo until you're well into Stage 2. But any noob squid with a credit card can ride off a lot with a liter-class bike, no questions asked.
  - balladeer 8y ago
    Simply put - you are exposed. Anything (accident) happens you fall and hit something - ground or otherwise, or are run over at times, again because you are exposed. You lost balance? Same. You just got on sand at even half the normal speed? You might still fall and hit. Wet surface, mud, speak breaks, same same. You hit another bike? Same (might be for both). You hit car? Same for you, but not for the car driver. When the bike falls you are the one who takes the hit. Most of this doesn't happen in a car. Just my observations as a biker. Yes, riding at sane speeds reduces these risks a lot.
  - breatheoften 8y ago
    I also remember being told statistics when I did the MSF training course many years ago that a very high percentage of single vehicle motorcycle fatalities involved substance use. It was really really high - 80+% or something. I rode motorcycle for 8 years as my only mode of transportation and can clearly remember how little alcohol or marijuana was needed to notice a significant performance degradation (much more noticeable effects from small amount of substance use than when driving a car).
    - Klathmon 8y ago
      Yeah, from what I read when I first started riding, there are a few really easy things that can significantly reduce your risk: * Wear a goddamn helmet * Don't drink and ride * Don't speed * Get a bike with ABS
- azinman2 8y ago
  But most of that is in the age range of 18-24. 90% is in city, and of that 70% is turning left at an intersection. Which mile is matters, as is who is riding the bike.
- simonebrunozzi 8y ago
  The silly joke here (at least in Italy) is to say: go 25 times faster than a car. (of course ignoring that it's still 25 times more likely)
- MetalGuru 8y ago
  Dang. If that's true, then combining that with the parent comment's statistic (1-2% chance of dying in a car accident over a lifetime), then you have a 25-50% chance of dying in a motorcycle (assuming you drive the same number of miles on your motorcycle over your lifetime as the average person drives in a car). 1-2% seems way too high.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - aidos 8y ago
    According to Forbes [1] it’s 1/88 for any kind of vehicle accident. 1/303 specifically in a car crash, which is definitely a lot lower than the original 1-2% quoted (though I’m sure it varies depending on where you live). Also, I guess even bikers don’t ride 100% of the time in place of being in / around cars. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/tombarlow/2011/05/10/the-odds-on-how-you-will-die/#73a1a22c1be7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/tombarlow/2011/05/10/the-odds-o...
- edoo 8y ago
  And horses are 20 times more dangerous than motorcycles.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- Rainymood 8y ago
  Every motorcyclist knows this, yet, driving a motorcycle is so awesome. The danger are other cars on the road. I've been thinking about creating computer vision tech to spot inattentive drivers, it's something I think motorcyclists could really benefit from (myself included)
  - rusticpenn 8y ago
    Similar tech has been done with cameras places in cars, but from a motorbike to monitor cars nearby would not be so easy, if the goal is to monitor the drivers face position (light reflection on glass is a major hurdle, i think). Perhaps it is possible to get the information based on car movement.
  - monk_e_boy 8y ago
    I think with AR more common we'll all be able to 'tag' other drivers. So drivers who have a bad reputation will be flagged. I imagine a system in which 'poor driver' tags would decay with time. Data is shared. Would be neat for self driving cars to update this data in real time, so you could see a data overlay of their decisions and intentions. A long green arrow would show their intended path, icons show you if they have seen you, timers counting down e.g. I'm pulling away in 3, 2, 1 ... now AR is going to be fun.
    - vickychijwani 8y ago
      I'm not so sure it'll be fun for everyone... that is only a couple of steps away from a Black Mirror episode (specifically S03E01, Nosedive). The risk of 'poor driver' ostracism/stigma is significant.
      - notSupplied 8y ago
        The road is a public space where privacy is not expected, and your behavior directly affects the safety of others. I'm not sure that we ought to protect "safe space to be a bad driver" the way other personality differences ought to be protected.
- baybal2 8y ago
  But motorcyclists are on average get in lesser amount of serious accident. When you know that how dangerous is careless driving, you drive more carefully
- FabHK 8y ago
  > Fun fact, you're ~25 times more likely to die on a motorcycle mile for mile than a car. According to recent US numbers (Uber's Elevate study), it's about 38x (per pax mile). https://www.uber.com/elevate.pdf https://www.uber.com/elevate.pdf EDIT to add: table on page 17.
balladeer 8y ago
I hope "err on the side of caution" is embedded into it. Though in driving erring in caution to prevent one collision can cause another. Another motorcycle (scooter really) commuter whose biggest issue is turns in front me with w/o indicator or sharp cuts in the front.
taneq 8y ago
> In his own words: "but I didn't see you" Ah, the infamous SMIDSY. "Sorry, mate, I didn't see you!" has claimed many of our peers.
- jakeogh 8y ago
  'self' driving cars are going to have a _even harder_ time at this task... and they are not going to apologize. The assumption that pre-programmed computers on wheels are going to compete with wetware in the real world is wrong. Instead of admitting it, the proponents will treat the people as bugs and demand more rules to make the programming easier. fatality. broke the rules. NOTABUG.
  - computerex 8y ago
    That doesn't make any sense to me. There are many challenges in fully autonomous driving, but detecting objects around the car is one of the easiest to overcome. We have radar and lidar, tried and tested technologies being used for decades. Unlike the wetware you speak of, this system doesn't get tired or distracted. Yes motorcycles are smaller than cars, but that won't be a problem for radar/lidar, and with proper sensor placement, there won't be any blind spots.
    - FabHK 8y ago
      > detecting objects around the car is one of the easiest to overcome. Not sure how you can say that, given recent accidents (crash into pedestrian pushing a bike across a street, crash into a stationary lane divider). Possibly other challenges are even harder, but describing a task that real world driverless cars repeatedly fail in as "the easiest" strikes me as overly cheery/Pollyannaish.
      - computerex 8y ago
        Can you provide sources for the accidents you are referencing? I'd like to get more detail about what happened and whose technology was at fault. It boils down to execution and application of the technology. The key elements, radar and lidar make it really easy to detect objects around the vehicle in real time and react quickly. Now how an autonomous vehicle company decides to use these technologies matters in the overall effectiveness. For example, Tesla doesn't use the lidar at all for cost savings. Tesla relies on radar and machine vision for localization which to someone like me is scary. On the other hand, waymo uses lidar. Look at their accident rates, very impressive indeed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#Testing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#Testing
computerex 8y ago
I love motorcycles. I was out on some back country roads in July visiting my parents. It was a beautiful day, when an inattentive 93 year old man decided to make a left turn into oncoming traffic. I was on a skinny 2 way double yellow road and his truck had a trailer, he blocked both sides. I broke every bone in my right leg and was lucky to not have it amputated. I was wearing racing gauntlets, helmet, jacket, armored jeans and riding boots so I was relatively uninjured. The hospital staff told me typical motorcycle accident patients aren't even responsive when bought in. Not sure if I will ride again. I love it but despite my gear, practice, having taken advanced riding courses, it really creeps me out that I got into a situation where I could only minimize my injuries.
- WhompingWindows 8y ago
  Unfortunately, I only see the issue of inattentive elderly drivers getting much worse in the coming decades as the boomers age. There is not an effective mechanism in place to ensure drivers with limited sight, vision, reaction time, and mobility are actually still capable of passing a drivers' test.
  - tonyedgecombe 8y ago
    I see this when I'm cycling, years ago the problem was agitated young men, now it's most definitely inattentive old people.
deepGem 8y ago
I think this is one of the most overlooked safety features of a self driving car. It is not just safe for the car occupants but it will be safer for pedestrians and 2-wheeler riders - motorcyclists and bicyclists. There was a video of a Tesla just following a cyclist at a safe distance in a single lane road. The car was in a way protecting the cyclist from other cars. I will not be surprised if the motorcycle deaths come down dramatically once self driving cars become more pervasive on the road. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdpasOHDjXc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdpasOHDjXc
nikofeyn 8y ago
i ride a motorcycle and will be just as terrified if not more of automated vehicles, so i don't understand your reasoning at all. the patterns of poor human drivers are actually pretty predictable. in the future, i will need to learn everchanging patterns with automated driving systems.
- monk_e_boy 8y ago
  Even if he were able to predict a rear end collision, how would he avoid it -- stuck in traffic or at lights? I'm sure you'll learn the ever changing patterns ok.
  - nikofeyn 8y ago
    that's a dismissive comment. i didn't mean it's safe now, and that situation isn't really avoided by anything other than constantly checking your mirrors, which isn't practical and maybe won't even work against that. however, i don't really understand the anecdote or reasoning because it sounded like the commenter went from "humans are bad" to "robots will be good". my point is that i view them both as dangerous but robots will be dangerous in new ways. have any self-driving cars been shown to work in motorcycle lane-splitting areas like what happens in california in the h.o.v. lane or anywhere else in the world besides the other u.s. states?

by extesy 8y ago

cheeze 8y ago

Fun fact, you're ~25 times more likely to die on a motorcycle mile for mile than a car. Stay safe out there.

jfoster 8y ago
I wonder how it breaks down for motorcycles. Some part of the danger is because you're vulnerable and you're riding among big metal objects (cars). Another part of the stats would be explained by dangerous riding (speeding and such). The other part would be that motorcycles are just quite dangerous by themselves given that there's no crumple zones or shielding when you're on a bike. Autonomous vehicles should eventually result in cyclists and motorcyclists being safer, but perhaps not completely.
- phinnaeus 8y ago
  Stability is another huge concern for motorcycles. If you lose traction on just one of your wheels, you could crash. While losing traction on 2 or maybe even 3 wheels in a car is much easier to recover.
- Gustomaximus 8y ago
  Before I went for a motorbike licence I research some of these stats. - A decent proportion of accidents are on unregistered bikes or riding while drinking. - Speeding, as always - A big risk factor is older people returning to motorbike riding as they remember their old skills but dont have them any more. - Having ABS is something like a 30% accident reduction. There's still a bunch of risk on a bike but for someone sensible you can improve your odds a fair way. Though I guess you could argue that personality would likely have well reduced odd than average in a car too so its still a relative increase...
  - rconti 8y ago
    When I started riding, I noticed the same thing. The HURT report shows unlicensed/uninsured young people (I was 28 when I got my license) as being so massively overrepresented in motorcycle injuries that it was mind boggling.
    - raverbashing 8y ago
      Sad, but it also means more organ donors.
- freerobby 8y ago
  If you read the report, you'll find motorcyclists are more likely than car drivers to speed, drive drunk, and do both at the same time. And they frequently don't wear helmets. There's no way to make motorcycling as safe as driving, but last time I did the math I found you can recover almost an entire order of magnitude just by obeying the law and wearing a full face helmet. And there's plenty more you can do from there -- take an MSF course, avoid congested areas during your first year on two wheels, and get a modern bike with ABS. Statistically speaking, the benefits of all these things are compounding.
  - Swizec 8y ago
    According to my recent MSF course somewhere around 60% of motorcycle fatalities and serious injuries are self inflicted. Some 40% involve more than 0 alcohol. Nothing made me feel safer on my new motorcycle than learning that stat. Don’t do dumb shit and your personal danger per mile can be quite okay. Also you’re most likely to die in your first and your third year. Then the probability drops off a cliff.
    - wingerlang 8y ago
      First and third? What about the second
      - Swizec 8y ago
        Lower chance than first and third. First year you’re a newb and likely to make mistakes. Third year you get confident and sloppy and likely to make mistakes. Most common way to die is running off the road when going too fast into a corner. Followed by being too aggressive in intersections and failing to avoid other people making mistakes or not seeing you. If a car forces right of way and you could’ve stopped but didn’t, it’s your fault. Even tho legally it’s their fault but you’re the one with less crumple zones so you gotta drive defensively.
      - sowbug 8y ago
        Likely the same effect as airplane pilots, where the 100th through 250th flight hours of your career are the most dangerous. Stage 1: unskilled, unaware => die Stage 2: unskilled, aware => not die Stage 3: unskilled, confident => die Stage 4: skilled => live Difference is that certificated flight instructors won't let you solo until you're well into Stage 2. But any noob squid with a credit card can ride off a lot with a liter-class bike, no questions asked.
- balladeer 8y ago
  Simply put - you are exposed. Anything (accident) happens you fall and hit something - ground or otherwise, or are run over at times, again because you are exposed. You lost balance? Same. You just got on sand at even half the normal speed? You might still fall and hit. Wet surface, mud, speak breaks, same same. You hit another bike? Same (might be for both). You hit car? Same for you, but not for the car driver. When the bike falls you are the one who takes the hit. Most of this doesn't happen in a car. Just my observations as a biker. Yes, riding at sane speeds reduces these risks a lot.
- breatheoften 8y ago
  I also remember being told statistics when I did the MSF training course many years ago that a very high percentage of single vehicle motorcycle fatalities involved substance use. It was really really high - 80+% or something. I rode motorcycle for 8 years as my only mode of transportation and can clearly remember how little alcohol or marijuana was needed to notice a significant performance degradation (much more noticeable effects from small amount of substance use than when driving a car).
  - Klathmon 8y ago
    Yeah, from what I read when I first started riding, there are a few really easy things that can significantly reduce your risk: * Wear a goddamn helmet * Don't drink and ride * Don't speed * Get a bike with ABS
azinman2 8y ago
But most of that is in the age range of 18-24. 90% is in city, and of that 70% is turning left at an intersection. Which mile is matters, as is who is riding the bike.
simonebrunozzi 8y ago
The silly joke here (at least in Italy) is to say: go 25 times faster than a car. (of course ignoring that it's still 25 times more likely)
MetalGuru 8y ago
Dang. If that's true, then combining that with the parent comment's statistic (1-2% chance of dying in a car accident over a lifetime), then you have a 25-50% chance of dying in a motorcycle (assuming you drive the same number of miles on your motorcycle over your lifetime as the average person drives in a car). 1-2% seems way too high.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- aidos 8y ago
  According to Forbes [1] it’s 1/88 for any kind of vehicle accident. 1/303 specifically in a car crash, which is definitely a lot lower than the original 1-2% quoted (though I’m sure it varies depending on where you live). Also, I guess even bikers don’t ride 100% of the time in place of being in / around cars. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/tombarlow/2011/05/10/the-odds-on-how-you-will-die/#73a1a22c1be7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/tombarlow/2011/05/10/the-odds-o...
edoo 8y ago
And horses are 20 times more dangerous than motorcycles.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
Rainymood 8y ago
Every motorcyclist knows this, yet, driving a motorcycle is so awesome. The danger are other cars on the road. I've been thinking about creating computer vision tech to spot inattentive drivers, it's something I think motorcyclists could really benefit from (myself included)
- rusticpenn 8y ago
  Similar tech has been done with cameras places in cars, but from a motorbike to monitor cars nearby would not be so easy, if the goal is to monitor the drivers face position (light reflection on glass is a major hurdle, i think). Perhaps it is possible to get the information based on car movement.
- monk_e_boy 8y ago
  I think with AR more common we'll all be able to 'tag' other drivers. So drivers who have a bad reputation will be flagged. I imagine a system in which 'poor driver' tags would decay with time. Data is shared. Would be neat for self driving cars to update this data in real time, so you could see a data overlay of their decisions and intentions. A long green arrow would show their intended path, icons show you if they have seen you, timers counting down e.g. I'm pulling away in 3, 2, 1 ... now AR is going to be fun.
  - vickychijwani 8y ago
    I'm not so sure it'll be fun for everyone... that is only a couple of steps away from a Black Mirror episode (specifically S03E01, Nosedive). The risk of 'poor driver' ostracism/stigma is significant.
    - notSupplied 8y ago
      The road is a public space where privacy is not expected, and your behavior directly affects the safety of others. I'm not sure that we ought to protect "safe space to be a bad driver" the way other personality differences ought to be protected.
baybal2 8y ago
But motorcyclists are on average get in lesser amount of serious accident. When you know that how dangerous is careless driving, you drive more carefully
FabHK 8y ago
> Fun fact, you're ~25 times more likely to die on a motorcycle mile for mile than a car. According to recent US numbers (Uber's Elevate study), it's about 38x (per pax mile). https://www.uber.com/elevate.pdf https://www.uber.com/elevate.pdf EDIT to add: table on page 17.

balladeer 8y ago

I hope "err on the side of caution" is embedded into it. Though in driving erring in caution to prevent one collision can cause another. Another motorcycle (scooter really) commuter whose biggest issue is turns in front me with w/o indicator or sharp cuts in the front.

taneq 8y ago

> In his own words: "but I didn't see you" Ah, the infamous SMIDSY. "Sorry, mate, I didn't see you!" has claimed many of our peers.

jakeogh 8y ago
'self' driving cars are going to have a _even harder_ time at this task... and they are not going to apologize. The assumption that pre-programmed computers on wheels are going to compete with wetware in the real world is wrong. Instead of admitting it, the proponents will treat the people as bugs and demand more rules to make the programming easier. fatality. broke the rules. NOTABUG.
- computerex 8y ago
  That doesn't make any sense to me. There are many challenges in fully autonomous driving, but detecting objects around the car is one of the easiest to overcome. We have radar and lidar, tried and tested technologies being used for decades. Unlike the wetware you speak of, this system doesn't get tired or distracted. Yes motorcycles are smaller than cars, but that won't be a problem for radar/lidar, and with proper sensor placement, there won't be any blind spots.
  - FabHK 8y ago
    > detecting objects around the car is one of the easiest to overcome. Not sure how you can say that, given recent accidents (crash into pedestrian pushing a bike across a street, crash into a stationary lane divider). Possibly other challenges are even harder, but describing a task that real world driverless cars repeatedly fail in as "the easiest" strikes me as overly cheery/Pollyannaish.
    - computerex 8y ago
      Can you provide sources for the accidents you are referencing? I'd like to get more detail about what happened and whose technology was at fault. It boils down to execution and application of the technology. The key elements, radar and lidar make it really easy to detect objects around the vehicle in real time and react quickly. Now how an autonomous vehicle company decides to use these technologies matters in the overall effectiveness. For example, Tesla doesn't use the lidar at all for cost savings. Tesla relies on radar and machine vision for localization which to someone like me is scary. On the other hand, waymo uses lidar. Look at their accident rates, very impressive indeed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#Testing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#Testing

computerex 8y ago

I love motorcycles. I was out on some back country roads in July visiting my parents. It was a beautiful day, when an inattentive 93 year old man decided to make a left turn into oncoming traffic. I was on a skinny 2 way double yellow road and his truck had a trailer, he blocked both sides. I broke every bone in my right leg and was lucky to not have it amputated. I was wearing racing gauntlets, helmet, jacket, armored jeans and riding boots so I was relatively uninjured. The hospital staff told me typical motorcycle accident patients aren't even responsive when bought in. Not sure if I will ride again. I love it but despite my gear, practice, having taken advanced riding courses, it really creeps me out that I got into a situation where I could only minimize my injuries.

WhompingWindows 8y ago
Unfortunately, I only see the issue of inattentive elderly drivers getting much worse in the coming decades as the boomers age. There is not an effective mechanism in place to ensure drivers with limited sight, vision, reaction time, and mobility are actually still capable of passing a drivers' test.
- tonyedgecombe 8y ago
  I see this when I'm cycling, years ago the problem was agitated young men, now it's most definitely inattentive old people.

deepGem 8y ago

I think this is one of the most overlooked safety features of a self driving car. It is not just safe for the car occupants but it will be safer for pedestrians and 2-wheeler riders - motorcyclists and bicyclists. There was a video of a Tesla just following a cyclist at a safe distance in a single lane road. The car was in a way protecting the cyclist from other cars. I will not be surprised if the motorcycle deaths come down dramatically once self driving cars become more pervasive on the road. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdpasOHDjXc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdpasOHDjXc

nikofeyn 8y ago

i ride a motorcycle and will be just as terrified if not more of automated vehicles, so i don't understand your reasoning at all. the patterns of poor human drivers are actually pretty predictable. in the future, i will need to learn everchanging patterns with automated driving systems.

monk_e_boy 8y ago
Even if he were able to predict a rear end collision, how would he avoid it -- stuck in traffic or at lights? I'm sure you'll learn the ever changing patterns ok.
- nikofeyn 8y ago
  that's a dismissive comment. i didn't mean it's safe now, and that situation isn't really avoided by anything other than constantly checking your mirrors, which isn't practical and maybe won't even work against that. however, i don't really understand the anecdote or reasoning because it sounded like the commenter went from "humans are bad" to "robots will be good". my point is that i view them both as dangerous but robots will be dangerous in new ways. have any self-driving cars been shown to work in motorcycle lane-splitting areas like what happens in california in the h.o.v. lane or anywhere else in the world besides the other u.s. states?