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It's sad that the discussion of Brexit and EU-related matters in general always revolve around perceived economic issues. Sure, a healthy economy is important
by jonathanstrange 8y ago
It's sad that the discussion of Brexit and EU-related matters in general always revolve around perceived economic issues.
Sure, a healthy economy is important for everyone, but the long-term goals of EU have always been to create a unity of countries with largely shared values to prevent future wars (incl. trade wars and cold wars) and to increase collaboration in all cultural, scientific and social matters. To grow together instead of alienating more and more until a new war breaks out, like it always happened in Europe's past in almost every century.
And now it's all about the money...
- diazon 8y agoMoney is very important to people who don't have much money. If you are a plumber whose wages are going down and down because the market is being flooded with cheaper Eastern Europeans, you know who to blame. Of course I don't expect HN users who are sitting on a pile of money in SF or London to ever understand this.
- bnt 8y agoOr are Brit plumbers simply overvalued and Eastern Europeans represent the true value of plumbing? I’m not sure if I should put a /s here or if I actually believe this.
- tinco 8y agoThat Brit plumbers are more expensive does not mean they are overvalued. It means they are not cost effective, and that means they'll get less jobs. You can only be overvalued if anyone is actually paying you for your job. The reason that they're expensive is that cost of living is too high. So the real question to ask is, do British plumbers expect a too high quality of life?
- johnchristopher 8y agoAnything has to be overvalued because there wouldn't be benefits then.
- eponeponepon 8y agoNeither proposition is true to the exclusion of the other. British ${plumbers} have had it easy; those from the East will work for less.
- eggy 8y agoUntil the foothold is gained, and then the immigrant's prices start to go backup when they establish themselves better in their new home. All of this is still a market force, and is how it works in general. On another note, I think you need to see a list of what people think they are gaining for a good comparison to this list of what you are potentially losing.
- dazc 8y agoDepends if you value plumbing as a skill or something anyone with a few basic tools can accomplish well enough?
- WA 8y agoOr maybe people who seemingly understood this "simple issue" forgot to see how the economy takes a hit, because of thousands of reasons, the middle class in GB becomes less wealthy and thus has less money to pay for plumbers. And then maybe realize that it's all the same plus a bunch of downsides, but now the cheap Eastern Europeans cannot be blamed anymore.
- majewsky 8y agoMy experience suggests that people in dire circumstances, regardless of location or time, will always find ways to blame foreigners for it.
- enraged_camel 8y agoThey actually understand it very well. Many of them complain about the same thing happening with H1B workers.
- heracles 8y agoYes, money is important. But it is not the only thing that is VERY important to most poeple. As a EU citizen I am yet to see any overflow whatsoever of plumbers! Nor do their wages, at least in my country (in Scandinavia) seem to go down at all. That point aside, EU /is/ a peace project and will continue to serve that purpose as long as it is standing. I do not dare think too much of how fractured western Europe would be at this point in time if we had to rely on Russia and USA for our peace. EDIT: switched ""rely"" to "rely". Not sure why I quoted it in the first place.
- jeddf 8y agoHad a little look around for empirical data and came across this, looks like trade wages are about stagnant but this is only over a few years. https://infogram.com/2018-trades-salary-survey-electricians-still-earn-the-most-1g502y9o4en8pjd https://infogram.com/2018-trades-salary-survey-electricians-...
- jlangenauer 8y agoI see you've created an account just to make provocative statements on various political issues, which isn't the purpose of HN. The "immigrants depress wages" trope is never that simple, as the UK is about to find out. In an economy where unemployment is very low, like the UK, they need that supply of labour to keep business ticking over. Should it disappear, growth will become constrained, and prices (along with wages) will have to rise.
- atlantic 8y agoWell, microeconomic theory is not that complicated either. If you take a particular labour market, and increase the supply, the point of equilibrium for wages shifts downwards. The magnitude of the shift depends on the elasticity of demand. If demand is fairly static, as is the case for basic services such as plumbing, then the shift in wages will be large. Now, the question of immigration is not just about economics. It's a political question, so other factors come into play. But as far as the economic part is concerned, there is no question that substantial immigration depresses wages in specific labour markets.
- Arnt 8y agoOh sure, and if you're a plumber whose wages are going down and down because businesses aren't investing, you know who to blame, too. Blaming based on hypotheticals is fun, even even more so when the hypotheticals sound plausible. Let's do more of it!
- richev 8y agoPersonal anecdote: about four years ago, living in London, I needed a plumber to do a small job just before Christmas (replacing a leaking shower tray). Of the three who came out to quote, we went with the Polish one because he was the most professional in his manner, gave us a written quote on paperwork with a company VAT (tax) number, and gave us confidence that he would do a quality job using quality parts. This he did, for the amount he quoted. As for cost? His quote was the most expensive.
- namdnay 8y agoAnd if you build cars for Nissan's European plant in Sunderland, you know who to thank... except that Sunderland voted to leave. So clearly the leave vote was not based on rational economical terms. The economy isn't a zero-sum game, and of all the countries in the world it would be most hypocritical for the UK to criticise globalism...
- wastedhours 8y agoMultiple studies have shown that in a lot of areas that's total bollocks, and in the pockets where it is true, is a fraction of a percentage difference: https://fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-wages/ https://fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-wages/ Try harder when trolling.
- diazon 8y agoI'm 100 % sure that link is completely unbiased and independent.
- wastedhours 8y agoI'm 100% sure that you are too. I trust their bias more than yours[0][1] [0] https://fullfact.org/about/funding/ https://fullfact.org/about/funding/ [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=diazon https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=diazon
- diazon 8y agoOf course I am not unbiased, I am a person with my own political leanings, like all of us. What I posted was my opinion, that's why it's called a "comment". It's not an article or a paper. But I'm not going to believe for a single second something like "fullfact" is neutral, the same way Snopes isn't, it doesn't matter to me where they get their money from. Those organisations aren't created and funded just for their love of truth and kindness.
- wastedhours 8y agoIf you have any facts to back up your opinion though, that'd be helpful. Otherwise divisive horseshit comments with no substance, meant to instil an "us vs them" attitude to people who contribute more to the UK than they take out, and have a net positive impact on the country as a whole, will be treated with the unreserved contempt they deserve. It's some people's opinion the world is flat, there's evidence to the contrary, but they don't believe it as they see the scientists as biased. Think on that one for a moment.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- adamlett 8y agoAre plumber wages really going down, though? I am not familiar with the situation in the UK, but in Denmark where I live, demand for plumbers (and construction workers) has outstripped supply for many years now. It's difficult to find a plumber who's willing to pick up the phone let alone commit to a job, and when you do find one, they are outrageously expensive. In this environment, I have a hard time sympathising with anyone who complains that e.g. Polish workers are coming and offering to take the assignments for less money.
- notahacker 8y agoPlumber wages in the UK are above average and growing faster than most salaries, and self-employed plumbers in undersupplied regions can make six figures whilst turning down a lot of work. Of all the industries to pick to argue "the market is saturated with too many workers", plumbing and specialised construction workers have to be the weirdest
- tinco 8y agoMoney is the means through which that unity is established. Country join up because it makes economic sense, because that's a short term reward, the long term reward which is less chance of war, is more uncertain and politicians rarely get the chance to be allowed to think long term about big decisions like this. Hence the whole Brexit fiasco in the first place.
- ksec 8y agoReminds me of a TED video I watched a few days ago. We shouldn't always be Interest first, there are always going to be Interest conflict. But Values, where we share a common ground is where we need to think first before Interest and a decision. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bFs6ZiynSU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bFs6ZiynSU
- timrichard 8y ago> To grow together instead of alienating more and more until a new war breaks out Between NATO members? As long as it stays together, I doubt it. Which is why it's been successful in preventing another global conflict for the last 70 years, and hasn't been impotent like the League of Nations and the United Nations. But then, things that quietly work don't get much attention. So if Macron and EU friends continue their power grab, and further develop the EU army, provoking Putin near his borders. Secede from NATO, leaving the remaining members to continue operating in their interests. More factions with vested interests capable of mobilising against each other. I wonder if anyone was really paying attention yesterday?
- chongli 8y agoThe problem with the EU is that it's a half measure which turns out to be worse than all or nothing. The original idea of creating a "United States of Europe" is a laudable one but it may now be further away than it was before the EU was formed. The gap between wealthy Northern countries such as Germany and less-well-off southern countries such as Greece, Portugal, or Spain has grown substantially. And now it's all about the money... For as long as money has existed, that's what it's always been about. Money is the means to survival and prosperity. When people exploit one another for it, resentment is the product. Resentment is the most powerful emotion of all; it's what leads to war.
- pjc50 8y ago> The gap between wealthy Northern countries such as Germany and less-well-off southern countries such as Greece, Portugal, or Spain has grown substantially. Has it? Over what time period and by what measure? At the time when the UK joined the EU in 1973, all three of those countries were military dictatorships!
- andrepd 8y ago<pedantic> Portugal was a dictatorship but not a military one. It was in fact the military that overthrew it.</pedantic>
- jonathanstrange 8y agoThat's not my experience as a German living and working in Portugal. Economic differences between countries will always exist, just like there are poorer and healthier regions within every country, but in daily life these play no role. Differences are superficial, people here and there share the same values and overall culture, and European countries are migrating rapidly towards each other in these terms. Of course, not paying for structurally weak regions has always been a popular topic among the inhabitants of richer parts (see the Länderfinanzausgleich), but in the end this attitude is just selfish and unrealistic. The EU sceptics of today are the same kind of people who were against the unification of Germany yesterday. Let's all go to war with Prussia then.
- ahmedalsudani 8y agoThe European Economic Community was meant to prevent wars by tying the economies of European states together. Economic integration brings people closer and makes a break between them costly for all parties. At the end of the day, the economy is our life, and it has a massive impact both on our day-to-day and on state affairs.
- tim333 8y agoFor the brexiters it hasn't in general been about the money. I think most recognised we'd take a hit to gdp but wanted freedom from EU control, less immigration and the like. The remainers have tended to focus on economics which may have been an error.
- pjc50 8y agoDominic Cummings claims that the most effective of the Leave campaigns he was responsible for was the "£350m for the NHS" one.
- NeedMoreTea 8y agoThe one that Farage started backing out of mere hours after the result.
- nprateem 8y agoNonsense. Most high profile Brexiters are millionaires. And most people voted aren't working or don't understand modern supply chains. Let me tell you the plan: Those troublesome EU workers have rights. Wouldn't it be great to ship in a load of people on visas from developing countries who aren't allowed to change jobs and who'll work for a pittance. That's why some of those millionaires are so in favour of Brexit. There won't be reduced migration, just a reduction in the rights of people who come.
- akudha 8y agoIf we take a step back and notice how much time per day on an average we think/talk about money, it isn't a pretty picture. It seems as though every decision revolves around money and economy. Yes, I do understand a stable economy is vital to peace and the very existence of human race. But do we need to compromise so much and put money over everything? Few days ago, the American president was talking about $110B when asked about the murder of Saudi journalist. That is just one example.
- atlantic 8y agoI agree that one of the main problems with current politics is the "experts know best" mentality, of which the reduction of political issues to their economic components is one example. Scientists, economists and others should contribute with their specific expertise, but at the end of the day, it should be up to the electorate to make up their minds - which, in the case of Brexit, they did. This faith in technocracy is in my opinion at the root of the democratic deficit in EU institutions - and also the myth that the electorate somehow "got it wrong" in the case of the Brexit referendum.
- pjc50 8y agoGove: "The British public has had enough of experts" Raab, later: “I hadn’t quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing,” Experts: at this point you might want to consider stockpiling your essential medicines... Come on, this is hacker news. We're all (supposedly) experts. You wouldn't let random members of the public rewrite your pull requests. We have to stand up for the idea that knowing the difference between a good plan and a bad plan matters.
- atlantic 8y agoEither the issue is too technical for the electorate, and you don't hold a referendum in the first place, or it's not, and you do, and then you live with the results. What you don't do is try to cancel the referendum if you don't agree with the outcome. That's disingenuous. And yes, this is Hacker News, but no, I don't think politics can be reduced to technical issues. I'm not British and I don't have an axe to grind regarding Brexit. But it seems reasonable to frame the issue in terms of taking a cut in GDP in order to protect national sovereignty. Which goes to show that the issue goes well beyond economics.
- notahacker 8y agoWhen a government is clearly deadlocked and damaging the country rather than delivering on its promised better deal, people don't insist there is anything "disingenuous" about suggesting that the country might be better off calling another election rather than the living with their mistakes for the originally-proposed full five year term. Why would a referendum in which the EU status quo lost narrowly to a range of optimistic alternative visions of the future, most of which are now ruled out be any more irrevocable? It seems far more disingenuous to frame the issue in terms of taking a cut in GDP in order to protect national sovereignty when the Leave campaign's key argument was framing it as the precise opposite: their headline claim was about how much more money our government would have to spend on public services. Sure, some of the people that voted Leave would have accepted the "less EU jurisdiction for less GDP" tradeoff, but certainly not enough of them to have won the referendum if they believed that was the choice they were making.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- BjoernKW 8y agoMany of the current conflicts within the EU arguably originate from the EU trying to be more than an economic entity. It's true that the EU, and its antecedents the ECSC and the EC, has been a tremendous force for peace on the European continent but make no mistake: It's original intent first and foremost was economic collaboration and prosperity. The impact of international trade, however, goes way beyond mere economic considerations: If you trade with people from other countries you have to communicate and negotiate with them, which in turn helps with reducing prejudice and creating bonds between countries on a personal level. In my opinion, this has done more for ensuring peace in Europe than lofty political goals. The centrifugal forces that most blatantly show with Brexit but the alienation of other EU members also is a symptom of are mostly caused by EU politicians indiscriminately pushing for an ever closer political integration without considering if that's what people actually want in each and every case.
- grey-area 8y agoThis shouldn't be a surprise though - Ever closer union has been the slogan since 1983. The EU has always been more than an economic entity, and is better for it IMO - economic union without political union is unstable and untenable in the longer term (just as one example, people in states like Greece have no effective political power over a brutal fiscal policy which impacts them deeply). I suspect the intention was always to promote a political and cultural union via economic and fiscal union first, then gradually political union. This is why the Euro project is so misunderstood - in isolation between Nation States it is madness, if viewed as a necessary step to a federal European state it makes lots of sense. Perhaps a federal state will always have too much concentration of power, however our short experiment with nation states over the last couple of centuries shows they are not a very good alternative IMO, and we'll hopefully find better forms of government (perhaps far more local power over tax/policy down at the county or town level with overarching federal entities for foreign policy and trade). The nationalism we've seen resurgent across the globe, of which Brexit is a celebration, is the easy answer, but is not the answer we need, and will in my view lead us only to war.
- BjoernKW 8y ago
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]