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I have some comments... The article refers extensively to car sales in September 2018, and infers a "death spiral" for ICE vehicles because of a drop in sales
by D_Alex 8y ago
I have some comments...
The article refers extensively to car sales in September 2018, and infers a "death spiral" for ICE vehicles because of a drop in sales that month.
What it neglects to mention is that September's sales, for w/e reason, seem to be an anomaly (possibly because of 5 weekends that month), that monthly sales in August were the highest ever, and that 2018 sales are overall tracking 3-4% higher than 2017.
Data here: http://lmc-auto.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/LMCA-Global-Light-Vehicle-Sales-Update-Sep-2018.pdf http://lmc-auto.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/LMCA-Global-L...
The author also implies that the car sales data is a sign of doom for the oil industry. Previous paragraph aside, oil use in transport continues to grow, driven substantially by trucking and air transport. Oil demand will be about 1.5% higher in 2018 than 2017, and is projected to grow at the same rate for the next 3 years at least. Beyond that, you could argue that growing wealth in Asia - with India picking up where China left off - could well outweigh the impact of EVs for many years yet.