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I hope you're right. Can we apply Moore's law to batteries and energy storage?! Ah, sarcasm, sorry. I do hope you're at least a little right, in that we start

I hope you're right. Can we apply Moore's law to batteries and energy storage?! Ah, sarcasm, sorry. I do hope you're at least a little right, in that we start to see some hugely efficient, lightweight storage of energy in EV batteries. We love headlines about battery breakthrough science, but right now, gasoline is still much more energy dense.

baybal2 8y ago
It is not exactly the same, but simple physics says that there is a huuuge potential for further improvement event without changing cell chemistry: Lighter car bodies, better regeneration, more efficient voltage conversion, better battery management, trend towards smaller cars in general, and relaxing crashworthiness standards. Tesla cars have close to a third of the total battery capacity being used as a buffer to extend battery life. Now, imagine a two seater car with CFRP/magnesium spaceframe body, weighting 600kg, and having 200kg battery pack of capacity similar to Model S. You can easily have the range tripled. I'd say that Model S range is already an overkill, and a typical city car will morph much closer towards what Chinese LSEVs are now: No crashworthiness whatsoever, no hydraulics, no cooling system, fibreglass body, 100kg battery pack made of brick cells, spaceframe, 2 PMDC hub motors, 70km max speed. Basically a stool with wheels and a tent roof. Something similar is already on the market and is called Renault Twizy
- benj111 8y ago
  I would like you to be right, but I suspect you probably aren't, a scooter (moped) can get 100mpg+ right now, and the havent taken off, and as you mention the Twizy, that isn't exactly selling like hot cakes. What I would like to see is temporary, removable, rentable batteries. You size your standard battery to the journeys you make 99% of the time. When you want to make that longer journey you rent an extra battery.
  - baybal2 8y ago
    About mopeds, that is only true for North America. Most of Asia is totally in love with two wheel transport. China is a complicated exception (authorities ban motorcycles to force people spending more on cars) For the second point, the much more likelier outcome is that people will start paying to have their cars being towed to another city, and travel separately.

baybal2 8y ago

It is not exactly the same, but simple physics says that there is a huuuge potential for further improvement event without changing cell chemistry: Lighter car bodies, better regeneration, more efficient voltage conversion, better battery management, trend towards smaller cars in general, and relaxing crashworthiness standards. Tesla cars have close to a third of the total battery capacity being used as a buffer to extend battery life. Now, imagine a two seater car with CFRP/magnesium spaceframe body, weighting 600kg, and having 200kg battery pack of capacity similar to Model S. You can easily have the range tripled. I'd say that Model S range is already an overkill, and a typical city car will morph much closer towards what Chinese LSEVs are now: No crashworthiness whatsoever, no hydraulics, no cooling system, fibreglass body, 100kg battery pack made of brick cells, spaceframe, 2 PMDC hub motors, 70km max speed. Basically a stool with wheels and a tent roof. Something similar is already on the market and is called Renault Twizy

benj111 8y ago
I would like you to be right, but I suspect you probably aren't, a scooter (moped) can get 100mpg+ right now, and the havent taken off, and as you mention the Twizy, that isn't exactly selling like hot cakes. What I would like to see is temporary, removable, rentable batteries. You size your standard battery to the journeys you make 99% of the time. When you want to make that longer journey you rent an extra battery.
- baybal2 8y ago
  About mopeds, that is only true for North America. Most of Asia is totally in love with two wheel transport. China is a complicated exception (authorities ban motorcycles to force people spending more on cars) For the second point, the much more likelier outcome is that people will start paying to have their cars being towed to another city, and travel separately.