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"Take a look at the line for Indians waiting for green cards. It's apparently 150 years long. That is absurd." There are about 4 billion people waiting in line

"Take a look at the line for Indians waiting for green cards. It's apparently 150 years long. That is absurd." There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could. There is infinite demand for migration to wealthy countries, just as there is now infinite demand for healthcare services now that we are getting older. The number of people in this or that queue is no longer a valid metric unless we're talking purely about bureaucratic wait times, in which case those should be short. H1 I think is a good program overall, it needs to be tweaked for fraud. If it came with a bigger fee, like 5K for approval, it might cover the cost of an 'inspector' popping into the office to check up on H1 status granted individuals. If companies knew an inspector would pop in once a year without notice, they might be hesitant to go on with the fraud stuff. I suggest the blatant fraud is done by bad actors outside normal operations but they're enabled ultimately by BigCos who turn a blind eye. i.e. anyone hiring contractors for more than 6 months have to also back their residency status, i.e. Cisco hires from ABC consulting and the inspectors come in and it's fraud, Cisco is on the hook as well. That would be one way to help clean it up. I think there is truly quite a bit of real business demand for H1s - even outside of the scammy stuff and 'replace our engineers' stuff.

jgh 8y ago
There isn't infinite demand, come on. The real REAL solution to this is to raise up the living conditions of people living in poor countries. At that point even if we had open borders not everybody would move to USA/Europe/Canada/Australia any more than everybody from Louisiana moves to California. Besides the fees are already up there. I was on an O-1 for a while and IIRC it was roughly $8000 all in between lawyers and processing fees.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  Maybe you have never travelled to a poor country? What percentage of Africans living in poverty, corruption, dysfunction do you think would like to migrate to Europe, the US or Canada? It's 'most'. 1/2 of Chinese would emigrate according to a few surveys [1]. Since everyone has the internet - they can now see that people elsewhere live in considerably higher material standards of living, why would they want to stay? Basically, family and culture ... but most people would trade that for a decent job and stable governance. Yes - totally agree the solution is to help poor countries have some wealth, but what can we do to help? They mostly have systems of total corruption. Any real attempt to try to fix underlying problems would be utterly destroyed by leadership who wants to maintain their status. Either governmental or non-governmental. Most African countries run on bribery. All the way up and down. So if a US Agency comes in and starts exposing this, how is the leadership going to react? With massive anti-American sentiment is how. This is happening right now as China is greasing government figures to buy up land on the cheap. They're bringing in their own workers in lieu of hiring Africans. Why? Because they can, and they are paying off who they need to to keep it that way. [2 Finally - even if countries were wealthier - there would still be massive emigration. Poland has a GDP/capita of about $14K US, but in PPP it's much higher. Poland is 'poor' for a rich country, but they are not poor. They have stuff. They have industry, they have regular clothes, housing, highways, governance that mostly resembles ours. None of it is UK/US standard ... but it's still pretty good. They are 'rich' compared to Nigerians, easily. And yet, there's a massive exodus of Polish labour into other places, particularly the UK, which has caused calamity in Europe. That's a different kind of migration, because I think many Poles return at some point, but nevertheless, it's big. So no, open borders would be a migration disaster by any stretch, even in some distant future where Central South American countries are hopefully much more 'caught up', it still can't work very well. I think a NAFTA type arrangement for all of the Americas is within reason though: no visa requirement, and possibility of easy work for a few years, then apply for citizenship. I think the fee for an H1 could be $1.5K a year. Maybe even a hint of a higher tax bracket, why not? $8K for an O1 sounds about right. You're supposed to be 'world class genius/talent' so that's not out of range. [1] https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/07/17/half-of-china-s-millionaires-want-to-emigrate-and-canada-s-thei_a_23034094/ https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/07/17/half-of-china-s-mil... [2] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/11/05/what-do-we-know-about-the-chinese-land-grab-in-africa/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/11/05/wh...
  - jgh 8y ago
    I don't really feel like addressing all of your points here but I will say this: You cannot apply for GC or citizenship under TN status.
    - sonnyblarney 8y ago
      As a former TN holder I'm aware, but that's a current technicality. I'm hinting at a 'system' that I think might work for North America. I guess I'm saying NAFTA is a better model for the Americas than the EU, and even then, only when there is more economic parity.
amf12 8y ago
> There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could. Honestly, you are over estimating the number of people who would like to come to the US. There are other wealthy countries which have a revamped immigration policy (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, some EU countries) which manage it well and don't get 4 Billion applications. > H1 I think is a good program overall, it needs to be tweaked for fraud. I think H1 also needs to be tweaked for easier transfer across different companies. This will make sure that people on H1 can easily switch if they feel they are getting paid less. But I do agree with you overall on everything else.
scarface74 8y ago
There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could. “150 Million Adults Worldwide Would Migrate to the U.S.” https://news.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-worldwide-migrate.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-world... There is infinite demand for migration to wealthy countries, just as there is now infinite demand for healthcare services now that we are getting older. There is a limit to how much can be done to keep people alive.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  The Gallup poll is a question of 'those who currently want to leave their country', i.e. people with active problems or calamity. That 150M number seems about right. That's not remotely the number that would move if they could. If you walked into a household in a poor country and just offered them zero-friction citizenship to the US/UK/CA/Europe for their whole family, with the promise of a decent job etc. - no strings attached ... the number would be extremely high. We're not supposed to use anecdotes here on HN but frankly it's life experience that has exposed me to the nuances of the most important things. Visiting these places and one kind of get an idea. It's not colonialist, arrogant, condescending or anything. It's just a simple pragmatic reality of people's will to just have stability, safety and a bit of aspiration. And yes, the answer mostly lies in helping these countries get much richer, and as I posted below, it's hard ... But we are making progress. The number of 'absurdly poor' people, living on like $1 a day has dropped dramatically over the last few decades as the industrial revolution of 'making stuff' has started working it's gears in more traditionally poor places ... though that has come with a lot of baggage as well, like pollution etc..
  - scarface74 8y ago
    If you walked into a household in a poor country and just offered them zero-friction citizenship to the US/UK/CA/Europe for their whole family, with the promise of a decent job etc. - no strings attached ... the number would be extremely high. There is a difference between “people who want to move to the US” and “people who want to move to another richer country”. I’ve asked people on HN why don’t they move from thier country in the EU with less opportunity to a country with more opportunity and they cited extended family and cultural differences as a reason. Heck, it’s hard to get people in the US to move to different cities and states for the same reasons.
dragonwriter 8y ago
> There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could. No, there aren't, and most of the people who would if they could can't for reasons beyond border policy. > There is infinite demand for migration to wealthy countries No, there's not. There aren't infinite people outside of wealthy countries to start with, and not every person outside of wealthy countries would move to them if they could (as we know, because many who would be most able to—notably local elites—don't.) > H1 I think is a good program overall, it needs to be tweaked for fraud. H1B is a bad program designed to inhibit wage growth and needs to be abolished.
justapassenger 8y ago
"There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could." You really should stop listening to the politicians and learn more about the world.

jgh 8y ago

There isn't infinite demand, come on. The real REAL solution to this is to raise up the living conditions of people living in poor countries. At that point even if we had open borders not everybody would move to USA/Europe/Canada/Australia any more than everybody from Louisiana moves to California. Besides the fees are already up there. I was on an O-1 for a while and IIRC it was roughly $8000 all in between lawyers and processing fees.

sonnyblarney 8y ago
Maybe you have never travelled to a poor country? What percentage of Africans living in poverty, corruption, dysfunction do you think would like to migrate to Europe, the US or Canada? It's 'most'. 1/2 of Chinese would emigrate according to a few surveys [1]. Since everyone has the internet - they can now see that people elsewhere live in considerably higher material standards of living, why would they want to stay? Basically, family and culture ... but most people would trade that for a decent job and stable governance. Yes - totally agree the solution is to help poor countries have some wealth, but what can we do to help? They mostly have systems of total corruption. Any real attempt to try to fix underlying problems would be utterly destroyed by leadership who wants to maintain their status. Either governmental or non-governmental. Most African countries run on bribery. All the way up and down. So if a US Agency comes in and starts exposing this, how is the leadership going to react? With massive anti-American sentiment is how. This is happening right now as China is greasing government figures to buy up land on the cheap. They're bringing in their own workers in lieu of hiring Africans. Why? Because they can, and they are paying off who they need to to keep it that way. [2 Finally - even if countries were wealthier - there would still be massive emigration. Poland has a GDP/capita of about $14K US, but in PPP it's much higher. Poland is 'poor' for a rich country, but they are not poor. They have stuff. They have industry, they have regular clothes, housing, highways, governance that mostly resembles ours. None of it is UK/US standard ... but it's still pretty good. They are 'rich' compared to Nigerians, easily. And yet, there's a massive exodus of Polish labour into other places, particularly the UK, which has caused calamity in Europe. That's a different kind of migration, because I think many Poles return at some point, but nevertheless, it's big. So no, open borders would be a migration disaster by any stretch, even in some distant future where Central South American countries are hopefully much more 'caught up', it still can't work very well. I think a NAFTA type arrangement for all of the Americas is within reason though: no visa requirement, and possibility of easy work for a few years, then apply for citizenship. I think the fee for an H1 could be $1.5K a year. Maybe even a hint of a higher tax bracket, why not? $8K for an O1 sounds about right. You're supposed to be 'world class genius/talent' so that's not out of range. [1] https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/07/17/half-of-china-s-millionaires-want-to-emigrate-and-canada-s-thei_a_23034094/ https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/07/17/half-of-china-s-mil... [2] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/11/05/what-do-we-know-about-the-chinese-land-grab-in-africa/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/11/05/wh...
- jgh 8y ago
  I don't really feel like addressing all of your points here but I will say this: You cannot apply for GC or citizenship under TN status.
  - sonnyblarney 8y ago
    As a former TN holder I'm aware, but that's a current technicality. I'm hinting at a 'system' that I think might work for North America. I guess I'm saying NAFTA is a better model for the Americas than the EU, and even then, only when there is more economic parity.

amf12 8y ago

> There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could. Honestly, you are over estimating the number of people who would like to come to the US. There are other wealthy countries which have a revamped immigration policy (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, some EU countries) which manage it well and don't get 4 Billion applications. > H1 I think is a good program overall, it needs to be tweaked for fraud. I think H1 also needs to be tweaked for easier transfer across different companies. This will make sure that people on H1 can easily switch if they feel they are getting paid less. But I do agree with you overall on everything else.

scarface74 8y ago

There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could. “150 Million Adults Worldwide Would Migrate to the U.S.” https://news.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-worldwide-migrate.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-world... There is infinite demand for migration to wealthy countries, just as there is now infinite demand for healthcare services now that we are getting older. There is a limit to how much can be done to keep people alive.

sonnyblarney 8y ago
The Gallup poll is a question of 'those who currently want to leave their country', i.e. people with active problems or calamity. That 150M number seems about right. That's not remotely the number that would move if they could. If you walked into a household in a poor country and just offered them zero-friction citizenship to the US/UK/CA/Europe for their whole family, with the promise of a decent job etc. - no strings attached ... the number would be extremely high. We're not supposed to use anecdotes here on HN but frankly it's life experience that has exposed me to the nuances of the most important things. Visiting these places and one kind of get an idea. It's not colonialist, arrogant, condescending or anything. It's just a simple pragmatic reality of people's will to just have stability, safety and a bit of aspiration. And yes, the answer mostly lies in helping these countries get much richer, and as I posted below, it's hard ... But we are making progress. The number of 'absurdly poor' people, living on like $1 a day has dropped dramatically over the last few decades as the industrial revolution of 'making stuff' has started working it's gears in more traditionally poor places ... though that has come with a lot of baggage as well, like pollution etc..
- scarface74 8y ago
  If you walked into a household in a poor country and just offered them zero-friction citizenship to the US/UK/CA/Europe for their whole family, with the promise of a decent job etc. - no strings attached ... the number would be extremely high. There is a difference between “people who want to move to the US” and “people who want to move to another richer country”. I’ve asked people on HN why don’t they move from thier country in the EU with less opportunity to a country with more opportunity and they cited extended family and cultural differences as a reason. Heck, it’s hard to get people in the US to move to different cities and states for the same reasons.

dragonwriter 8y ago

> There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could. No, there aren't, and most of the people who would if they could can't for reasons beyond border policy. > There is infinite demand for migration to wealthy countries No, there's not. There aren't infinite people outside of wealthy countries to start with, and not every person outside of wealthy countries would move to them if they could (as we know, because many who would be most able to—notably local elites—don't.) > H1 I think is a good program overall, it needs to be tweaked for fraud. H1B is a bad program designed to inhibit wage growth and needs to be abolished.

justapassenger 8y ago

"There are about 4 billion people waiting in line to enter the US if they could." You really should stop listening to the politicians and learn more about the world.