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There is no $6T barrier, the infrastructure already exists. TLDR: This article focuses more on the cost of electric cars (which is valid but not really relevant

There is no $6T barrier, the infrastructure already exists. TLDR: This article focuses more on the cost of electric cars (which is valid but not really relevant) with a passing mention on infrastructure. Bloomberg provides no clear backup on the math (“according to Goldman”) but I’m guessing they are pricing a scenario where all electric cars are completely drained and charging to full all at once. Practical usage is more like a trickle charge every night. A step further, electric utilities are thrilled to get to supply this energy to you, and there will be a cat and mouse game as car charging software works to avoid peak electric surge pricing. Electric utility remains the winner, since they can heavily incentivize time-shifted charging (i.e. dont start charging until 1 am, get half price kws!), and they can run their traditional plants more efficiently or even issue firesale pricing notices for sudden oversupply from renewables. There is no barrier, there is modest opportunity, and the implication of the barrier is “i’m not buying a car because the national grad can’t support me!” In the same breath, the article discusses how electric autos are selling like hot cakes.

neogodless 8y ago
I have no comment on whether the grid can support the electricity demand. The charging network is the bigger picture item. Basically, locations where you can charge your car have to become as ubiquitous as gas stations, or, more likely, more ubiquitous because you want to rely on dormant vehicle periods to charge to avoid humans standing around waiting. It's very easy to picture this in a modern metro area which probably already has a well-planned (and mostly Tesla) charger network. But just the U.S. alone has 2.3 billion acres of land to cover with chargers at homes, businesses, parking garages, apartments and dedicated charging points. It's not trivial, and it absolutely does not yet exist. (But I believe it's a surmountable business/engineering challenge, if not an expensive one.)
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  Note that the average Tesla supercharger costs ~10x less to build to operate than a gas station.
- ethagknight 8y ago
  Charging endpoints just seems like a very simple solution. Charges don’t need to be ubiquitous for Tesla to sell another 10,000 electric cars this month. Tesla is clearly supply constrained. That’s my beef with the article or really the headline, sales are off the charts.There are certainly complicated scenarios, like the urban apartment dwellers out there, and they may have to be among the last to adopt, and that’s a ‘barrier’ several orders of magnitude smaller than $6T. the 100+ million housing units in the US alone can rapidly adopt electric cars in a distributed manner. A surge in gas pricing could flip that switch too. I’ve argued elsewhere on HN that gas stations, commercial garages, and retailers, and employers are in position add some circuits. It MAY be a $6B problem sprinkling 1,000,000 connections across the country at a generous $6,000ea, but it isn’t a $6T problem.
- rmtech 8y ago
  How do we get to the $6 trillion figure though? This article from BI indicates that 30,000 charging stations will cost $8bn, which is roughly 0.1% of the $6tr figure. That's for the whole US! Where is the other 99.9% of the $6tr coming from? http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-supercharger-network-expansion-costs-8-billion-ubs-2017-3 http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-supercharger-network-exp...

neogodless 8y ago

I have no comment on whether the grid can support the electricity demand. The charging network is the bigger picture item. Basically, locations where you can charge your car have to become as ubiquitous as gas stations, or, more likely, more ubiquitous because you want to rely on dormant vehicle periods to charge to avoid humans standing around waiting. It's very easy to picture this in a modern metro area which probably already has a well-planned (and mostly Tesla) charger network. But just the U.S. alone has 2.3 billion acres of land to cover with chargers at homes, businesses, parking garages, apartments and dedicated charging points. It's not trivial, and it absolutely does not yet exist. (But I believe it's a surmountable business/engineering challenge, if not an expensive one.)

rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
Note that the average Tesla supercharger costs ~10x less to build to operate than a gas station.
ethagknight 8y ago
Charging endpoints just seems like a very simple solution. Charges don’t need to be ubiquitous for Tesla to sell another 10,000 electric cars this month. Tesla is clearly supply constrained. That’s my beef with the article or really the headline, sales are off the charts.There are certainly complicated scenarios, like the urban apartment dwellers out there, and they may have to be among the last to adopt, and that’s a ‘barrier’ several orders of magnitude smaller than $6T. the 100+ million housing units in the US alone can rapidly adopt electric cars in a distributed manner. A surge in gas pricing could flip that switch too. I’ve argued elsewhere on HN that gas stations, commercial garages, and retailers, and employers are in position add some circuits. It MAY be a $6B problem sprinkling 1,000,000 connections across the country at a generous $6,000ea, but it isn’t a $6T problem.
rmtech 8y ago
How do we get to the $6 trillion figure though? This article from BI indicates that 30,000 charging stations will cost $8bn, which is roughly 0.1% of the $6tr figure. That's for the whole US! Where is the other 99.9% of the $6tr coming from? http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-supercharger-network-expansion-costs-8-billion-ubs-2017-3 http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-supercharger-network-exp...