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I don’t really understand why figures like this matter, if people are willing to pay for the electricity at a profitable rate, then the grid infrastructure to m

I don’t really understand why figures like this matter, if people are willing to pay for the electricity at a profitable rate, then the grid infrastructure to meet that demand can be built. There must be very high global costs in maintaining the existing grid, but we don’t get breathless articles saying “global grid must find $x trillion or else blackouts will occur within 5 years”. If there was a sudden spike in demand there would be a sudden availability of private capital willing to meet that demand, the barrier should that occur would be equipment, materials and skill related, but I doubt it would be held back by access to capital. Also, it doesn’t make sense to talk about “affordable electric cars” as a monolith. Electric cars are already cheaper than the alternatives for some people when you calculate Total Cost of Ownership, it depends on your requirements and use case. That will become mainstream step by step in different sections of the market.

herval 8y ago
Occam’s razor: it’s not profitable enough to attract the capital it needs, and price is heavily regulated
- Brakenshire 8y ago
  Well, that is the question which matters, whether or not current prices reflect the costs. I don’t see that saying “Occam’s Razor” answers the question, it needs to be proven or disproven through evidence.
neogodless 8y ago
The assumption you used helps to answer your question. "at a profitable rate" So this assumes that the chicken-and-egg electric car/infrastructure can evolve together profitably while reaching critical mass. (To be sure, I believe they can, but it will take either government or brave investors to get there.) So the question really is "can $6T be divided up into the cost of whoever is paying for it, i.e. electricity users to maintain profitability as it is built?" If you assume the answer is yes, there is no question! (As for the "maintaining the grid", yes, obviously we are already maintaining it profitably. No need to build critical mass/adoption or initial infrastructure investment, so no interesting stories to write!)
- Brakenshire 8y ago
  Yes, you’re right that is the important assumption which needs to be proven or disproven, all I’m saying is that the $6T is immaterial, if the investment can be done profitably it can happen very quickly, if it can’t then it won’t. Also worth saying that how many years in the history of the electricity grid has demand not been growing? That may not be the normal state recently, but it has been for the majority of the history of the industry.

herval 8y ago

Occam’s razor: it’s not profitable enough to attract the capital it needs, and price is heavily regulated

Brakenshire 8y ago
Well, that is the question which matters, whether or not current prices reflect the costs. I don’t see that saying “Occam’s Razor” answers the question, it needs to be proven or disproven through evidence.

neogodless 8y ago

The assumption you used helps to answer your question. "at a profitable rate" So this assumes that the chicken-and-egg electric car/infrastructure can evolve together profitably while reaching critical mass. (To be sure, I believe they can, but it will take either government or brave investors to get there.) So the question really is "can $6T be divided up into the cost of whoever is paying for it, i.e. electricity users to maintain profitability as it is built?" If you assume the answer is yes, there is no question! (As for the "maintaining the grid", yes, obviously we are already maintaining it profitably. No need to build critical mass/adoption or initial infrastructure investment, so no interesting stories to write!)

Brakenshire 8y ago
Yes, you’re right that is the important assumption which needs to be proven or disproven, all I’m saying is that the $6T is immaterial, if the investment can be done profitably it can happen very quickly, if it can’t then it won’t. Also worth saying that how many years in the history of the electricity grid has demand not been growing? That may not be the normal state recently, but it has been for the majority of the history of the industry.