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The problem with these types of systems are it's difficult to do backtesting on a single continuous data stream... I write about that here: https://blog.projec
by citilife 8y ago
The problem with these types of systems are it's difficult to do backtesting on a single continuous data stream... I write about that here:
https://blog.projectpiglet.com/2018/01/perils-of-backtesting/ https://blog.projectpiglet.com/2018/01/perils-of-backtesting...
I recommend doing something similar to the original post. Neural networks tend to produce valid looking output for a stock price easily, a random walk does too. You have to find correlations, causations, and then review the results carefully.
For reference, I wrote my own financial advisor (not directly utilizing deep learning, that functions relatively well):
http://projectpiglet.com/ http://projectpiglet.com/
It works relatively well when checking the "causality" which also has it's limits: https://blog.projectpiglet.com/2018/01/causality-in-cryptomarkets/ https://blog.projectpiglet.com/2018/01/causality-in-cryptoma...
EDIT: Added some evidence:
* 2016 stocks: https://imgur.com/a/j8YWR https://imgur.com/a/j8YWR
* Early 2018 crypto: https://blog.projectpiglet.com/2018/01/30-weekly-returns-using-piglet/ https://blog.projectpiglet.com/2018/01/30-weekly-returns-usi...
* Early 2018 stocks: https://twitter.com/AustinGWalters/status/976347632439209985 https://twitter.com/AustinGWalters/status/976347632439209985
* All 2018 on Robinhood only: https://imgur.com/a/2CxEFqI https://imgur.com/a/2CxEFqI
* Also (I am lettergram on HN), created: https://hnprofile.com https://hnprofile.com and https://redditprofile.com https://redditprofile.com
- kdma 8y agoInteresting but i am a non believer can you provide figures that show gains through years?
- citilife 8y agoAdded in an edit update - I have more, but just tossed some together for you from 2016 - 2018.
- Scarbutt 8y agoThis type of scam has been done many times for years...
- meesterdude 8y ago> I wrote my own financial advisor (not directly utilizing deep learning, that functions relatively well) I do not see enough data to backup the claims of how well it works. And if you can't provide that - what good is it as a tool?