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There are some very practical problems with nuclear that people are hand-waving away. One of the most significant is simply longterm cost, because you have to c
by TangoTrotFox 8y ago
There are some very practical problems with nuclear that people are hand-waving away. One of the most significant is simply longterm cost, because you have to consider what nuclear, at large scale, would entail. Because of the specifics here costs would likely go much higher, not decline - and it's already one of, and by some metrics, the most expensive methods of energy production. Right now nuclear accounts for 10-15% of the world's energy production, yet even at that level we only have known uranium reserves to run these for about 200 years. [1] Bump that up to where nuclear is a major player in energy production and we're suddenly running out imminently. This means we're going to need to turn to things like saltwater extraction and breeder reactors. But these technologies are going to send costs skyrocketing. And as well as scarcity becomes an issue, we can also expect to see the cost of uranium itself start to skyrocket.
And this is before getting into the other issues of nuclear at scale. Decommissioning is a lengthy, expensive, and complex process. Nuclear accidents are rare, but nowhere near as rare as they should be, on paper. There are currently about 450 plants operating worldwide. That's a disconcertingly low number given the number of accidents throughout the years. And breeder reactors would be absolutely required for longterm uranium perspectives, yet that technology not only greatly increases costs but also complexity and volatility. And another issue that becomes even more critical at scale is disposal. We already have some 90,000 tons [2] of nuclear waste (in the USA alone) the requires disposal. And this waste needs to be stored for thousands of years before it becomes remotely safe. And that also means we need to consider the waste that will pile up over centuries of nuclear usage.
And as the article mentions, we're likely to see major increases in global energy usage over the years to come which further exasperates these problems. These are very real practical problems that seem to have no clear solution. In my opinion solar is the most logical option for the future. The one and only downside there is the lack of production during the night, yet this can be resolved in a countless number of basic technical ways ranging from batteries to even just mundane things such as shifting objects (or liquids or whatever) to create potential energy that can be harvested during off times. If we take a utopic view of the future, it's even possible to envision worldwide high energy direct current lines transiting power worldwide. All of these things involve losses of energy of course, but as far as our needs are concerned solar can provide a practically infinite amount of energy and so optimal efficiency is not so relevant.
I also think that the decentralization of energy is also desirable. Even something as benign as rooftop solar will end up providing an immense amount of energy. Centralization of energy, let alone when it relies on a scarce resource is something I think we've learned a lot about for the past century. A bit of hindsight would be valuable here.
[1] - https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-long-will-global-uranium-deposits-last/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-long-will-glo...
[2] - https://www.gao.gov/key_issues/disposal_of_highlevel_nuclear_waste/issue_summary https://www.gao.gov/key_issues/disposal_of_highlevel_nuclear...