What you're saying and what I said are consistent, not backwards. "If most offenses are first offenses" satisfies the predicate "Unless [% of first offenses] i

What you're saying and what I said are consistent, not backwards. "If most offenses are first offenses" satisfies the predicate "Unless [% of first offenses] is a really low number" The consequent "firing after a first offense won't help much" is consistent with "firing after first offense won't reduce the total number of incidents enough."