1. That's just the gray fallacy. "Knowing only gray, you conclude that all grays are the same shade. You mock the simplicity of the two-color view, yet you rep

1. That's just the gray fallacy. "Knowing only gray, you conclude that all grays are the same shade. You mock the simplicity of the two-color view, yet you replace it with a one-color view." Just because some cases are uncertain doesn't mean all cases are equally uncertain. As Asimov put it in The Relativity of Wrong: "When people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together." 2. Let's set aside the heredity assumptions for a moment and go straight to the heart of the matter: As a proportion of the people who will be born in the next generation, would you rather have a larger or smaller fraction of them be poor for life? Why?