4 ms·

>Nothing in TFA seems suspicious to me. I don't know about "suspicious", but what exactly is the point? Tesla, whom many consider overvalued, has a higher mar

>Nothing in TFA seems suspicious to me. I don't know about "suspicious", but what exactly is the point? Tesla, whom many consider overvalued, has a higher market cap than BMW. So what? BMW makes more money, has higher revenues, produces more cars and has been in business way longer. Their sales have been growing for years. They deliver almost as many cars in a month as Tesla has in its entire existence. So what is the main point? Only in Silicon Valley do people care about "valuation". Electrek literally takes random Elon Musk tweets and writes "articles" about them. HN votes them up, while criticizing every second article as "fake news".

codeulike 8y ago
Tesla's high valuation represents the hopes for its future importance. So at this point you could say the market values Tesla's future as being more important than BMWs future. And if you are ecologically minded, thats interesting.
- whtswrong 8y ago
  >And if you are ecologically minded, thats interesting. This doesn't follow. If you were truly ecologically minded, you'd cheer on all the automakers in their move to EVs, not one in specific with a microscopic market share. BMW has more potential to shift the landscape than Tesla.
  - Arnt 8y ago
    Tesla is shifting the landscape, BMW could be. Comparing the indicative with the indicative mood isn't fair. Vapourware always/never beats what's shipping.
  - codeulike 8y ago
    Well thats true, I do want other automakers to follow. That's Tesla's stated mission actually - to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport. So perhaps this market valuation will give BMW a kick up the arse. BMW and all the other major carmakers are continually announcing how they're going to start producing loads of EVs blah blah, but its always still 'a few years away'. And seems to have been like that for a decade now. I think there is some sort of deadlock at the senior management level. Also, Tesla's market share is no longer microscopic and the likelihood is its going to continue to grow. Thats the whole point of the market valuation that this conversation we're having is about.
  - the_duke 8y ago
    Tesla has definitely given a tremendous push to the market. I highly doubt the EV efforts would be nearly as far along as they are without Tesla, and the danger that the catch-up activity by other players dies down again if Tesla goes under is very real. (until the Chinese manufacturers start tackling the European market, that is) There is nothing better to put pressure on other manufacturers than a successful EV vendor.
  - DennisP 8y ago
    Maybe, but Tesla is selling significantly more cars than BMW right now. When another automaker starts selling an all-electric lineup, I'll cheer for them as much as for Tesla.
    - whtswrong 8y ago
      >Tesla is selling significantly more cars than BMW right now. By "right now" you mean for a single historical quarter, in one specific, shrinking auto segment (sedans), in one global market right (USA), correct? Because, again, BMW sells 250k vehicles globally, per month. Torture the data enough and anyone can be a leader.
arcticfox 8y ago
> Their sales have been growing for years. Looks like they just posted a solid ~5% YoY growth for the last quarter, while TSLA posted ~125%. It's clearly an interesting difference. Valuation is the metric that summarizes all of the other metrics. https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/bamxf/fundamental/revenue-quarterly-yoy-growth https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/bamxf/fundamental/revenue-... https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/TSLA/fundamental/revenue-quarterly-yoy-growth https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/TSLA/fundamental/revenue-q...
- Gladdyu 8y ago
  https://xkcd.com/1102/ https://xkcd.com/1102/
- mijamo 8y ago
  Valuation does not AT ALL summarize all the other metrics. Valuation is NOT a representation of the future of even expected future of a company. I could bet on Tesla and help its value rise just because I think tomorrow other people will bet on them and so the share will rise. I could bet on Tesla because I think Softbank has way too much money and will ensure I get an nice ROI soon. I could bet on Tesla because I just see that they've been growing and think it will keep going at the same pace without issue. As long as you have people ready to buy at a higher price for whatever reason, the share will rise. And if people stop believing it will drop. Both regardless of the actual metrics behind. When Tesla gains or lose more than 10% IN A DAY, it's not because suddenly their metrics are 10% better or worse, it's just the mirror of the market's collective psychology.
  - benj111 8y ago
    While I don't disagree with you (are you not describing every bubble in history?), eventually the music will stop and any 'investor' should at least be making reasonably sure there is a seat nearby. Tesla's jump on their earnings report was as I understand it, because they made a profit. I suppose you could make a case for that increasing the 'value' much more than 10%. (although I could also take it as a signal for the end of teslas growth phase, and mark it down.) Hopefully all the different opinions average out at 'the one true answer' (tm).

codeulike 8y ago

Tesla's high valuation represents the hopes for its future importance. So at this point you could say the market values Tesla's future as being more important than BMWs future. And if you are ecologically minded, thats interesting.

whtswrong 8y ago
>And if you are ecologically minded, thats interesting. This doesn't follow. If you were truly ecologically minded, you'd cheer on all the automakers in their move to EVs, not one in specific with a microscopic market share. BMW has more potential to shift the landscape than Tesla.
- Arnt 8y ago
  Tesla is shifting the landscape, BMW could be. Comparing the indicative with the indicative mood isn't fair. Vapourware always/never beats what's shipping.
- codeulike 8y ago
  Well thats true, I do want other automakers to follow. That's Tesla's stated mission actually - to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport. So perhaps this market valuation will give BMW a kick up the arse. BMW and all the other major carmakers are continually announcing how they're going to start producing loads of EVs blah blah, but its always still 'a few years away'. And seems to have been like that for a decade now. I think there is some sort of deadlock at the senior management level. Also, Tesla's market share is no longer microscopic and the likelihood is its going to continue to grow. Thats the whole point of the market valuation that this conversation we're having is about.
- the_duke 8y ago
  Tesla has definitely given a tremendous push to the market. I highly doubt the EV efforts would be nearly as far along as they are without Tesla, and the danger that the catch-up activity by other players dies down again if Tesla goes under is very real. (until the Chinese manufacturers start tackling the European market, that is) There is nothing better to put pressure on other manufacturers than a successful EV vendor.
- DennisP 8y ago
  Maybe, but Tesla is selling significantly more cars than BMW right now. When another automaker starts selling an all-electric lineup, I'll cheer for them as much as for Tesla.
  - whtswrong 8y ago
    >Tesla is selling significantly more cars than BMW right now. By "right now" you mean for a single historical quarter, in one specific, shrinking auto segment (sedans), in one global market right (USA), correct? Because, again, BMW sells 250k vehicles globally, per month. Torture the data enough and anyone can be a leader.

arcticfox 8y ago

> Their sales have been growing for years. Looks like they just posted a solid ~5% YoY growth for the last quarter, while TSLA posted ~125%. It's clearly an interesting difference. Valuation is the metric that summarizes all of the other metrics. https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/bamxf/fundamental/revenue-quarterly-yoy-growth https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/bamxf/fundamental/revenue-... https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/TSLA/fundamental/revenue-quarterly-yoy-growth https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/TSLA/fundamental/revenue-q...

Gladdyu 8y ago
https://xkcd.com/1102/ https://xkcd.com/1102/
mijamo 8y ago
Valuation does not AT ALL summarize all the other metrics. Valuation is NOT a representation of the future of even expected future of a company. I could bet on Tesla and help its value rise just because I think tomorrow other people will bet on them and so the share will rise. I could bet on Tesla because I think Softbank has way too much money and will ensure I get an nice ROI soon. I could bet on Tesla because I just see that they've been growing and think it will keep going at the same pace without issue. As long as you have people ready to buy at a higher price for whatever reason, the share will rise. And if people stop believing it will drop. Both regardless of the actual metrics behind. When Tesla gains or lose more than 10% IN A DAY, it's not because suddenly their metrics are 10% better or worse, it's just the mirror of the market's collective psychology.
- benj111 8y ago
  While I don't disagree with you (are you not describing every bubble in history?), eventually the music will stop and any 'investor' should at least be making reasonably sure there is a seat nearby. Tesla's jump on their earnings report was as I understand it, because they made a profit. I suppose you could make a case for that increasing the 'value' much more than 10%. (although I could also take it as a signal for the end of teslas growth phase, and mark it down.) Hopefully all the different opinions average out at 'the one true answer' (tm).