3 ms·

What if the claim is not that my marginal vote is worth 0, but rather that the worth of my marginal vote is very small - so small that the marginal cost of driv

What if the claim is not that my marginal vote is worth 0, but rather that the worth of my marginal vote is very small - so small that the marginal cost of driving to the voting booth and waiting in line is overwhelmingly higher. What mathematical or logical argument can you use to convince someone that is convinced by this weakened line of reasoning? Even in my own state, which has a relatively convenient vote-by-mail system, there is still a cost associated to voting - educating yourself about the candidates and measures (the complementary booklet explaining measures and including for-and-against arguments is 50+ pages), filling out the ballot, and the cost of the stamp on the envelope, at least. It is also widely understood that my state is quite liberal, so that the democrat's victory is all-but-certain in most races. It's not hard for me to understand why the average resident would not even bother.

throwawaymath 8y ago
That's a bit different. I can buy on principle that it's possible the value of your time is so high it doesn't make sense for you to e.g. vote red in a blue state. But if we ground this back in reality, most people do not hyperoptimize their time based on marginal utilities because it would be nearly impossible to achieve that kind of efficiency. So I'll buy it principle, but I'd need some convincing it applies to any given person in particular.
- mactrey 8y ago
  It's not really hyperoptimization if the cost of voting is prima facie higher than the value. I think it's on the "get out the vote" side to prove that voting is worth it - and I don't think the average American would be swayed by a statistical argument proving that the value of voting is greater than 0.
  - throwawaymath 8y ago
    It is hyperoptimization, because most people do not do a rigorous cost benefit analysis of all their behavior based on the marginal costs and utility of their time. Most people barely do any kind of optimization, in fact. They might decide not to vote because they're cynical or lazy, but that's (strictly speaking) different from rationally choosing not to vote because you consistently avoid doing things which are a net negative in value compared to your time. I've already proven for you that a single vote matters. You can reject that proof, just like you can reject a proof that the square root of 2 is irrational, but you wouldn't be doing so on a logical basis. That covers the positive question of whether or not your individual vote matters - any argument against this basically boils down to, "But I don't feel like it matters, because so many other individual people are voting." As for the normative case of whether or not to vote - again, I'm open to your time being so expensive you shouldn't vote in principle. But in practice, I'd be pretty skeptical of most people trying to make that claim. If Jeff Bezos and homeless people alike are willing to vote, a plea to the value of your time isn't that compelling, even in the ivory tower of game theory. If such a person spent (cumulatively) an hour or two without deriving any productivity from their time on election day, they should have voted if they were otherwise capable of doing so.

throwawaymath 8y ago

That's a bit different. I can buy on principle that it's possible the value of your time is so high it doesn't make sense for you to e.g. vote red in a blue state. But if we ground this back in reality, most people do not hyperoptimize their time based on marginal utilities because it would be nearly impossible to achieve that kind of efficiency. So I'll buy it principle, but I'd need some convincing it applies to any given person in particular.

mactrey 8y ago
It's not really hyperoptimization if the cost of voting is prima facie higher than the value. I think it's on the "get out the vote" side to prove that voting is worth it - and I don't think the average American would be swayed by a statistical argument proving that the value of voting is greater than 0.
- throwawaymath 8y ago
  It is hyperoptimization, because most people do not do a rigorous cost benefit analysis of all their behavior based on the marginal costs and utility of their time. Most people barely do any kind of optimization, in fact. They might decide not to vote because they're cynical or lazy, but that's (strictly speaking) different from rationally choosing not to vote because you consistently avoid doing things which are a net negative in value compared to your time. I've already proven for you that a single vote matters. You can reject that proof, just like you can reject a proof that the square root of 2 is irrational, but you wouldn't be doing so on a logical basis. That covers the positive question of whether or not your individual vote matters - any argument against this basically boils down to, "But I don't feel like it matters, because so many other individual people are voting." As for the normative case of whether or not to vote - again, I'm open to your time being so expensive you shouldn't vote in principle. But in practice, I'd be pretty skeptical of most people trying to make that claim. If Jeff Bezos and homeless people alike are willing to vote, a plea to the value of your time isn't that compelling, even in the ivory tower of game theory. If such a person spent (cumulatively) an hour or two without deriving any productivity from their time on election day, they should have voted if they were otherwise capable of doing so.