4 ms·

But the BBC reported earlier this year that somebody is cheating and making CFC-11 - banned by the Montreal Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-enviro

But the BBC reported earlier this year that somebody is cheating and making CFC-11 - banned by the Montreal Protocol. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44138984 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44138984

nixpulvis 8y ago
Now that I've read both articles (mistaking yours as the OPs for a second and getting really confused)... I think this paints a pretty clear picture in my head, ignoring the spin, that while yes the ozone layer has been improving, there are still risks, and potentially bad players we need to continue to be vigilant for.
InclinedPlane 8y ago
How are these incompatible stories? Worldwide ozone destroying chemical production is way down, which is allowing the ozone layer to regenerate back to pre-industrial levels. Meanwhile, some polluters are cranking out banned CFCs and freeriding on the worldwide reduction efforts. Much like CO2 production, some level of emissions are well within the ability of the biosphere to deal with without harm. But if everyone emits willy nilly then we'll end up well past those limits.
- throwaway5752 8y ago
  How much CFC production was accounted for in the models that predicted the O3 layer healing? How much production can be handled and what is current production? Those are the answers one would have to have before writing this off.
  - TheSpiceIsLife 8y ago
    > How much CFC production was accounted for in the models that predicted the O3 layer healing? I thought ozone layer density (is that the right term?) was directly measurable? https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/ozone-layer2.htm https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-scienc...
    - kaybe 8y ago
      Yes, and it is not even that hard. But we cannot measure the future, thus we use models to predict, and those need inputs (such as emitted CFCs) which can be wrong.
      - TheSpiceIsLife 8y ago
        Ah, right, yes, that makes sense now. Thanks.
  - InclinedPlane 8y ago
    Before writing what off?
kaybe 8y ago
It's home insulation production in China. The culprits are fully aware it's illegal, but China has some problems in getting compliance to its own laws. https://content.eia-global.org/posts/documents/000/000/761/original/Blowing-It_CFC11_Report_EIA.pdf?1531089183 https://content.eia-global.org/posts/documents/000/000/761/o...
- EGreg 8y ago
  You would think China with all that control over businesses and their population could prevent people from polluting their rivers with plastic and spewing it into the Pacific Ocean!
  - Retric 8y ago
    Systemic corruption makes the rule of law "difficult" to enforce. And by difficult I mean this is a feature not a bug for the huge interconnected web of power that actually runs the country. PS: The fact China is not a democracy which has some unpleasant results: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs
    - kevin_thibedeau 8y ago
      All it takes is one party member (out of 80M) lodging a complaint with the central committee.
      - barry-cotter 8y ago
        Yes because they read all missives personally. And no one ever interferes with those missives or those who send them. And no one ever lies in them for personal gain or joy in chaos. Quick, do a good job and renovate everything, hide or move anything annoying or embarrassing while the boss is here is part of Chinese management everywhere from Xi Jinping on down. Supervision and management are hard, especially when your subordinates are constantly shading the truth and covering things up.
      - 8y ago
userbinator 8y ago
The major contributor to ozone depletion is probably CFC-12, which has a much lower boiling point than CFC-11 and was far more widely used (and vented into the atmosphere) for refrigeration. CFC-11 boils at 24C. CFC-12 boils at -30C.

nixpulvis 8y ago

Now that I've read both articles (mistaking yours as the OPs for a second and getting really confused)... I think this paints a pretty clear picture in my head, ignoring the spin, that while yes the ozone layer has been improving, there are still risks, and potentially bad players we need to continue to be vigilant for.

InclinedPlane 8y ago

How are these incompatible stories? Worldwide ozone destroying chemical production is way down, which is allowing the ozone layer to regenerate back to pre-industrial levels. Meanwhile, some polluters are cranking out banned CFCs and freeriding on the worldwide reduction efforts. Much like CO2 production, some level of emissions are well within the ability of the biosphere to deal with without harm. But if everyone emits willy nilly then we'll end up well past those limits.

throwaway5752 8y ago
How much CFC production was accounted for in the models that predicted the O3 layer healing? How much production can be handled and what is current production? Those are the answers one would have to have before writing this off.
- TheSpiceIsLife 8y ago
  > How much CFC production was accounted for in the models that predicted the O3 layer healing? I thought ozone layer density (is that the right term?) was directly measurable? https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/ozone-layer2.htm https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-scienc...
  - kaybe 8y ago
    Yes, and it is not even that hard. But we cannot measure the future, thus we use models to predict, and those need inputs (such as emitted CFCs) which can be wrong.
    - TheSpiceIsLife 8y ago
      Ah, right, yes, that makes sense now. Thanks.
- InclinedPlane 8y ago
  Before writing what off?

kaybe 8y ago

It's home insulation production in China. The culprits are fully aware it's illegal, but China has some problems in getting compliance to its own laws. https://content.eia-global.org/posts/documents/000/000/761/original/Blowing-It_CFC11_Report_EIA.pdf?1531089183 https://content.eia-global.org/posts/documents/000/000/761/o...

EGreg 8y ago
You would think China with all that control over businesses and their population could prevent people from polluting their rivers with plastic and spewing it into the Pacific Ocean!
- Retric 8y ago
  Systemic corruption makes the rule of law "difficult" to enforce. And by difficult I mean this is a feature not a bug for the huge interconnected web of power that actually runs the country. PS: The fact China is not a democracy which has some unpleasant results: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs
  - kevin_thibedeau 8y ago
    All it takes is one party member (out of 80M) lodging a complaint with the central committee.
    - barry-cotter 8y ago
      Yes because they read all missives personally. And no one ever interferes with those missives or those who send them. And no one ever lies in them for personal gain or joy in chaos. Quick, do a good job and renovate everything, hide or move anything annoying or embarrassing while the boss is here is part of Chinese management everywhere from Xi Jinping on down. Supervision and management are hard, especially when your subordinates are constantly shading the truth and covering things up.
    - 8y ago

userbinator 8y ago

The major contributor to ozone depletion is probably CFC-12, which has a much lower boiling point than CFC-11 and was far more widely used (and vented into the atmosphere) for refrigeration. CFC-11 boils at 24C. CFC-12 boils at -30C.