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This is an aside, but: > Some publications even blame third party voters for Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016. I don't think there is any plausible reason to be

by eli 8y ago

This is an aside, but: > Some publications even blame third party voters for Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016. I don't think there is any plausible reason to believe Clinton would have won in 2016 if not for third-party candidates running. The math just doesn't add up.

tzs 8y ago
The raw numbers are there for third party candidate to make a difference. It would only have taken Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin going to Clinton instead of Trump to have changed the result. In Michigan, Trump won by around 11k votes, and there were around 223k third party votes (172k Johnson, 51k Stein). In Wisconsin, Trump won by 22k votes. Johnson got 107k there and Stein got 31k. In Pennsylvania, Trump won by 46k. 147k went to Johnson and 50k to Stein. I'd guess that almost all Stein voters would pick Clinton over Trump, so take Stein out of the race and in all three of those states Clinton wins that statewide vote unless the Stein voters decide to stay home. I'd guess that those who would vote for Stein would be sufficiently "anyone but Trump" to not stay home. Those states are all winner-takes-all for the Electoral College, so that would do it. (Maine and Nebraska are the only states that split their electoral votes). What would have happened without Johnson is a harder call. Trump and Clinton are both terrible from a Libertarian point of view. I'd expect Libertarian voters to be more likely to go Republican than Democrat if there is no Libertarian on the ballot most years, but Trump is so different from what had been mainstream Republicans before that I have no idea who the majority of Libertarians would have picked. Also, I suspect that many of the Johnson voters were "never Trump" Republicans rather than Libertarians, who would agree with conservative writer and research fellow at the Cato Institute P.J. O'Rourke who said that Clinton lies about everything and is wrong on every issue, but he was endorsing her over Trump because she was wrong "within normal parameters".
- eli 8y ago
  "I'd guess that almost all Stein voters would pick Clinton over Trump..." I see absolutely no reason to believe that.
  - moate 8y ago
    The option of "just stay home" is an option that's not being considered by the OP. Plenty of people cast a protest vote for Stein against both Clinton and Trump and wouldn't have voted for either if those were the only choices.
  - tzs 8y ago
    Compare: https://www.isidewith.com/candidate-guide/jill-stein-vs-hillary-clinton https://www.isidewith.com/candidate-guide/jill-stein-vs-hill... https://www.isidewith.com/candidate-guide/jill-stein-vs-donald-trump https://www.isidewith.com/candidate-guide/jill-stein-vs-dona... Also check them all out at ontheissues.org. Stein was the Green Party candidate, and Trump was pretty much the anti-Green candidate. Clinton ranges from agreeing with the Green party to indifferent on most of their major issues. Even where Trump and Stein agree, such as on getting rid of Obamacare, they are massively incompatible (Stein wants to get rid of it for a single-payer system, Trump for just letting the market work it out).
    - eli 8y ago
      Your theory is that people decide to vote and then study each candidate’s positions to decide who to vote for?
      - tptacek 8y ago
        And your theory is that you're right because you say you are?

by eli 8y ago

tzs 8y ago

The raw numbers are there for third party candidate to make a difference. It would only have taken Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin going to Clinton instead of Trump to have changed the result. In Michigan, Trump won by around 11k votes, and there were around 223k third party votes (172k Johnson, 51k Stein). In Wisconsin, Trump won by 22k votes. Johnson got 107k there and Stein got 31k. In Pennsylvania, Trump won by 46k. 147k went to Johnson and 50k to Stein. I'd guess that almost all Stein voters would pick Clinton over Trump, so take Stein out of the race and in all three of those states Clinton wins that statewide vote unless the Stein voters decide to stay home. I'd guess that those who would vote for Stein would be sufficiently "anyone but Trump" to not stay home. Those states are all winner-takes-all for the Electoral College, so that would do it. (Maine and Nebraska are the only states that split their electoral votes). What would have happened without Johnson is a harder call. Trump and Clinton are both terrible from a Libertarian point of view. I'd expect Libertarian voters to be more likely to go Republican than Democrat if there is no Libertarian on the ballot most years, but Trump is so different from what had been mainstream Republicans before that I have no idea who the majority of Libertarians would have picked. Also, I suspect that many of the Johnson voters were "never Trump" Republicans rather than Libertarians, who would agree with conservative writer and research fellow at the Cato Institute P.J. O'Rourke who said that Clinton lies about everything and is wrong on every issue, but he was endorsing her over Trump because she was wrong "within normal parameters".

eli 8y ago
"I'd guess that almost all Stein voters would pick Clinton over Trump..." I see absolutely no reason to believe that.
- moate 8y ago
  The option of "just stay home" is an option that's not being considered by the OP. Plenty of people cast a protest vote for Stein against both Clinton and Trump and wouldn't have voted for either if those were the only choices.
- tzs 8y ago
  Compare: https://www.isidewith.com/candidate-guide/jill-stein-vs-hillary-clinton https://www.isidewith.com/candidate-guide/jill-stein-vs-hill... https://www.isidewith.com/candidate-guide/jill-stein-vs-donald-trump https://www.isidewith.com/candidate-guide/jill-stein-vs-dona... Also check them all out at ontheissues.org. Stein was the Green Party candidate, and Trump was pretty much the anti-Green candidate. Clinton ranges from agreeing with the Green party to indifferent on most of their major issues. Even where Trump and Stein agree, such as on getting rid of Obamacare, they are massively incompatible (Stein wants to get rid of it for a single-payer system, Trump for just letting the market work it out).
  - eli 8y ago
    Your theory is that people decide to vote and then study each candidate’s positions to decide who to vote for?
    - tptacek 8y ago
      And your theory is that you're right because you say you are?