4 ms·

I'm more inclined to think the phone will fail for the same reasons the Zune did, too little too late. But then the media player market was much broader and mor

I'm more inclined to think the phone will fail for the same reasons the Zune did, too little too late. But then the media player market was much broader and more saturated in 2006 than the smartphone market is now so maybe it won't play out in the same way...

Tyrannosaurs 16y ago
The worst mistake they could make is to kill it the way they killed the Zune. They're never going to launch a day one, version one product which will displace the iPhone or Android, it's going to take time and investment. The real target should be that they've got 25%+ market share in three years time. That should be what they're aiming for rather than a success this year. People replace phones every 12 - 24 months and that's rapid even in tech (most people don't replace laptops that often). Every expired contract is a new potential customer for Microsoft and that churn means that no-one can take their position for granted so it's realistic for MS to make solid inroads over time.
- contextfree 16y ago
  They didn't kill the Zune. WP7 is basically a superset of Zune - same service for music/video, same client software, (evolution/derivative of the) same UI. There're rumored to be phoneless WP7s in the works too.
  - Tyrannosaurs 16y ago
    Fair enough, kill was probably the wrong word but they seemed to lose interest in the Zune as it's own entity. But it was actually a pretty good and if they'd stuck at it I get the impression it could have done better than it did. Perhaps it will revive with WP7 (though I see the software is still under development which is good).
- contentvoid 16y ago
  As pointed out the Zune lives on but I think it'd be difficult to argue it really made a substantive splash in the market despite arguably being a superior device as well as having the (imho) very strong Zune Pass subscription service. We're four years in and I can count on one hand how many people I've known that owned a Zune. There are parallels with WP7 launch but the stakes are much higher this time around because the relevance of the desktop is waning for general consumer use and Microsoft needs something to replace it. WP7 is an inflection point, if it fails I think you'll see Microsoft go roughly down the same path IBM has as far as consumer relevance (unless perhaps they turn Xbox Live into a OnLive-esque games as service thing, which they are in a better position than Sony or Nintendo to do).

Tyrannosaurs 16y ago

The worst mistake they could make is to kill it the way they killed the Zune. They're never going to launch a day one, version one product which will displace the iPhone or Android, it's going to take time and investment. The real target should be that they've got 25%+ market share in three years time. That should be what they're aiming for rather than a success this year. People replace phones every 12 - 24 months and that's rapid even in tech (most people don't replace laptops that often). Every expired contract is a new potential customer for Microsoft and that churn means that no-one can take their position for granted so it's realistic for MS to make solid inroads over time.

contextfree 16y ago
They didn't kill the Zune. WP7 is basically a superset of Zune - same service for music/video, same client software, (evolution/derivative of the) same UI. There're rumored to be phoneless WP7s in the works too.
- Tyrannosaurs 16y ago
  Fair enough, kill was probably the wrong word but they seemed to lose interest in the Zune as it's own entity. But it was actually a pretty good and if they'd stuck at it I get the impression it could have done better than it did. Perhaps it will revive with WP7 (though I see the software is still under development which is good).
contentvoid 16y ago
As pointed out the Zune lives on but I think it'd be difficult to argue it really made a substantive splash in the market despite arguably being a superior device as well as having the (imho) very strong Zune Pass subscription service. We're four years in and I can count on one hand how many people I've known that owned a Zune. There are parallels with WP7 launch but the stakes are much higher this time around because the relevance of the desktop is waning for general consumer use and Microsoft needs something to replace it. WP7 is an inflection point, if it fails I think you'll see Microsoft go roughly down the same path IBM has as far as consumer relevance (unless perhaps they turn Xbox Live into a OnLive-esque games as service thing, which they are in a better position than Sony or Nintendo to do).