3 ms·
Well, it's useful for me to know that your confidence of it happening in the next 3 years is low when you make your statement. I see that it is. That's enough
by scarejunba 8y ago
Well, it's useful for me to know that your confidence of it happening in the next 3 years is low when you make your statement. I see that it is.
That's enough for me.
- mikeash 8y agoHave you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.
- scarejunba 8y ago> Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier. I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.
- mikeash 8y agoRight. You said if a few is three, I responded to indicate that it’s looser than that, and you then basically assumed I’m a liar rather than considering that the “if” might be wrong. If you’re not interested in a bet, why did you reply to me to ask if I’ve made one?