6 ms·

The stunning transfer of wealth from technology companies to residential landlords through their employees will continue.

Alex3917 8y ago
Don't forget though that that area in NYC has a ton of both empty space and low-value commercial space that can be torn down and redeveloped. It's also home to one of the biggest transportation deserts in the city, which will be functionally unlocked in the next five years or so once self-driving cars are a thing. While stuff takes time to build, at the end of the day there is a lot more land to build buildings than there are people who want to live there. And unlike in SF, if there is new demand then those buildings will actually get built. edit: Was referring to the LIC location, not VA.
- zzleeper 8y ago
  Va? I'm quite close to Crystal City and the rent is already pretty high; not SF levels but amongst the highest in the country. Also, Crystal City has two metro lines so not entirely a transportation despert.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- jacques_chester 8y ago
  > It's also home to one of the biggest transportation deserts in the city, which will be functionally unlocked in the next five years or so once self-driving cars are a thing. Self-driving cars don't magically make other cars, self-driving or not, vanish from the roads and they certainly can't match the raw throughput of moving thousands of people in a single train on a dedicated right of way.
  - Alex3917 8y ago
    > Self-driving cars don't magically make other self-driving cars vanish I mean that's what they're supposed to do, if they can all drive one behind another at a constant speed without crashing or creating traffic jams. But more importantly, if you can be doing work while your car is driving itself then your effective commute is zero. And if your car can park itself in the suburbs, then that creates yet more space in the city that can be used to create housing. Self-driving cars, if they actually work, should radically reduce housing costs -- both by making formerly unlivable places suitable for residential buildings, and by freeing up significant amounts of land.
    - lancewiggs 8y ago
      You've described a train or buses.
    - jacques_chester 8y ago
      My point being that they don't make other cars vanish and they certainly don't make human-driven cars vanish in any sensible timeframe. On a person-kilometre-minute basis, cars are absurdly inefficient. Stupendously so. A typical subway train typically runs to about 157 metres. A 2018 Camry runs to about 5 metres. That gives about 31 car lengths for the subway car. Assume that every Camry is fully loaded with 5 passengers. That's 155 people. In the ideal condition, driving bumper-to-bumper with no other cars, 155 people in 157 metres -- about a person per linear metre. Here's the fun bit: the passenger capacity of an R142A carriage is 176. Not the whole train. One subway car. One subway car, approximately 16 metres long, holds more people than an entire train's length of self-driving Camrys driving with zero tolerance. Now add the fact that the trains have dedicated rights of way and note that even with the profound multi-decadal mess made of the MTA you simply cannot replace the subway with any other mode of transportation, not now, not ever. Self-driving cars don't repeal the laws of physics and they don't override Little's Law either.
      - CamperBob2 8y ago
        Yes, rail offers unparalleled efficiency at transporting people from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be.
  - CydeWeys 8y ago
    They also don't make pedestrians or cyclists disappear from the roads -- these are ever-present in NYC. It's gonna be a hassle for self-driving cars.
    - jacques_chester 8y ago
      Indeed, cars trained on data gathered in California and Nevada are going to need a fair amount of tweaking to understand that pedestrians are a bit pushier hereabouts.
      - CydeWeys 8y ago
        I expect people to cotton on and jaywalk with impunity in front of self-driving cars, effectively always taking the right of way. Hell, this is probably as it should be. NYC would be better off with fewer cars and further prioritization of other modes of transport.
- bradleyjg 8y ago
  What transportation desert? Within a few blocks of each other are court square, queensboro plaza, and queens plaza which together have seven subway lines. (E,M,N,W,R,G&7) Go a little further out and you also have an F stop and the LIRR at Hunters Point Avenue. There’s also a ferry terminal. I can only think of four spots in the city that are better served by transit: Times Square, Grand Central, Fulton Street, and Atlantic Avenue.
  - Alex3917 8y ago
    If you look at the subway map, the area around Maspeth that's south of the 7, north of the L, east of the G, and west of the M. LIC itself has tons of transportation as you mentioned, I'm just saying that that area is only an 8 minute commute from LIC but is itself a transportation desert. http://web.mta.info/maps/submap.html http://web.mta.info/maps/submap.html
    - lovich 8y ago
      To make things clearer, what is your definition of a transportation desert?
      - Alex3917 8y ago
        "A transportation desert is defined as an area greater than ½ mile from a subway station." https://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170913/OPINION/170919994/councilwoman-elizabeth-crowley-s-proposal-for-queens-light-rail https://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170913/OPINION/17091... https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2015/10/crowley-pushing-for-light-rail-project-in-queens-026837 https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/201...
        lovich 8y ago
        Is that quote your definition? I did not find the quote mentioned in either linked article when I used ctrl+f "transportation desert"
- mbateman 8y ago
  I live in LIC. It’s not at all a transportation desert. It’s one of the most well-connected hubs in NYC. There are general issues with transportation efficacy in NYC right now (subway reliability etc.) but none of them are LIC specific.
  - electricslpnsld 8y ago
    The parts of LIC immediately adjacent to Astoria and Queensboro plaza aren't too bad, but the closer you get to the river and further north you get the more of a pain in the ass LIC can be. I used to live adjacent to the sculpture park and that hike to the N was a serious workout in the winter (especially with groceries!). Great view of Manhattan, though.
- sotojuan 8y ago
  What? LIC is already, even before Amazon considered an HQ2, a very expensive and congested area. It is one of the prime examples of tech and finance gentrification.
- throwaway427 8y ago
  Self driving cars are still going to be sitting in standstill on the LIE or BQE. And in 10 years when all those new LIC high-rise leasing offices open up it will be 22 year old fresh college grads bunking up two to an apartment like SF and senior employees will be riding an hour on the LIRR from their park and rides, wishing every day there was a line that ran from Westchester County to LIC.
  - JackFr 8y ago
    Yeah. It comes down to river crossings. People complain about Manhattan, but attempts to build out Brooklyn, Jersey City, Long Island City and Stamford always end up falling short of the original goals, because of the commute. People from Long Island, Connecticut, Westchester and New Jersey can get to Manhattan with a single mode of public transportation (because they only have to cross one river.) When you move to any of those other locations, you eliminate a large chunk of potential employees, because their commute effectively goes up by >50%.
- untog 8y ago
  > in the next five years or so once self-driving cars are a thing You have another thing coming if you think a) self driving cars will be here in five years or b) that they will make NYC traffic a dream to navigate when they do.

Alex3917 8y ago

Don't forget though that that area in NYC has a ton of both empty space and low-value commercial space that can be torn down and redeveloped. It's also home to one of the biggest transportation deserts in the city, which will be functionally unlocked in the next five years or so once self-driving cars are a thing. While stuff takes time to build, at the end of the day there is a lot more land to build buildings than there are people who want to live there. And unlike in SF, if there is new demand then those buildings will actually get built. edit: Was referring to the LIC location, not VA.

zzleeper 8y ago
Va? I'm quite close to Crystal City and the rent is already pretty high; not SF levels but amongst the highest in the country. Also, Crystal City has two metro lines so not entirely a transportation despert.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
jacques_chester 8y ago
> It's also home to one of the biggest transportation deserts in the city, which will be functionally unlocked in the next five years or so once self-driving cars are a thing. Self-driving cars don't magically make other cars, self-driving or not, vanish from the roads and they certainly can't match the raw throughput of moving thousands of people in a single train on a dedicated right of way.
- Alex3917 8y ago
  > Self-driving cars don't magically make other self-driving cars vanish I mean that's what they're supposed to do, if they can all drive one behind another at a constant speed without crashing or creating traffic jams. But more importantly, if you can be doing work while your car is driving itself then your effective commute is zero. And if your car can park itself in the suburbs, then that creates yet more space in the city that can be used to create housing. Self-driving cars, if they actually work, should radically reduce housing costs -- both by making formerly unlivable places suitable for residential buildings, and by freeing up significant amounts of land.
  - lancewiggs 8y ago
    You've described a train or buses.
  - jacques_chester 8y ago
    My point being that they don't make other cars vanish and they certainly don't make human-driven cars vanish in any sensible timeframe. On a person-kilometre-minute basis, cars are absurdly inefficient. Stupendously so. A typical subway train typically runs to about 157 metres. A 2018 Camry runs to about 5 metres. That gives about 31 car lengths for the subway car. Assume that every Camry is fully loaded with 5 passengers. That's 155 people. In the ideal condition, driving bumper-to-bumper with no other cars, 155 people in 157 metres -- about a person per linear metre. Here's the fun bit: the passenger capacity of an R142A carriage is 176. Not the whole train. One subway car. One subway car, approximately 16 metres long, holds more people than an entire train's length of self-driving Camrys driving with zero tolerance. Now add the fact that the trains have dedicated rights of way and note that even with the profound multi-decadal mess made of the MTA you simply cannot replace the subway with any other mode of transportation, not now, not ever. Self-driving cars don't repeal the laws of physics and they don't override Little's Law either.
    - CamperBob2 8y ago
      Yes, rail offers unparalleled efficiency at transporting people from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be.
- CydeWeys 8y ago
  They also don't make pedestrians or cyclists disappear from the roads -- these are ever-present in NYC. It's gonna be a hassle for self-driving cars.
  - jacques_chester 8y ago
    Indeed, cars trained on data gathered in California and Nevada are going to need a fair amount of tweaking to understand that pedestrians are a bit pushier hereabouts.
    - CydeWeys 8y ago
      I expect people to cotton on and jaywalk with impunity in front of self-driving cars, effectively always taking the right of way. Hell, this is probably as it should be. NYC would be better off with fewer cars and further prioritization of other modes of transport.
bradleyjg 8y ago
What transportation desert? Within a few blocks of each other are court square, queensboro plaza, and queens plaza which together have seven subway lines. (E,M,N,W,R,G&7) Go a little further out and you also have an F stop and the LIRR at Hunters Point Avenue. There’s also a ferry terminal. I can only think of four spots in the city that are better served by transit: Times Square, Grand Central, Fulton Street, and Atlantic Avenue.
- Alex3917 8y ago
  If you look at the subway map, the area around Maspeth that's south of the 7, north of the L, east of the G, and west of the M. LIC itself has tons of transportation as you mentioned, I'm just saying that that area is only an 8 minute commute from LIC but is itself a transportation desert. http://web.mta.info/maps/submap.html http://web.mta.info/maps/submap.html
  - lovich 8y ago
    To make things clearer, what is your definition of a transportation desert?
    - Alex3917 8y ago
      "A transportation desert is defined as an area greater than ½ mile from a subway station." https://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170913/OPINION/170919994/councilwoman-elizabeth-crowley-s-proposal-for-queens-light-rail https://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170913/OPINION/17091... https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2015/10/crowley-pushing-for-light-rail-project-in-queens-026837 https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/201...
      - lovich 8y ago
        Is that quote your definition? I did not find the quote mentioned in either linked article when I used ctrl+f "transportation desert"
mbateman 8y ago
I live in LIC. It’s not at all a transportation desert. It’s one of the most well-connected hubs in NYC. There are general issues with transportation efficacy in NYC right now (subway reliability etc.) but none of them are LIC specific.
- electricslpnsld 8y ago
  The parts of LIC immediately adjacent to Astoria and Queensboro plaza aren't too bad, but the closer you get to the river and further north you get the more of a pain in the ass LIC can be. I used to live adjacent to the sculpture park and that hike to the N was a serious workout in the winter (especially with groceries!). Great view of Manhattan, though.
sotojuan 8y ago
What? LIC is already, even before Amazon considered an HQ2, a very expensive and congested area. It is one of the prime examples of tech and finance gentrification.
throwaway427 8y ago
Self driving cars are still going to be sitting in standstill on the LIE or BQE. And in 10 years when all those new LIC high-rise leasing offices open up it will be 22 year old fresh college grads bunking up two to an apartment like SF and senior employees will be riding an hour on the LIRR from their park and rides, wishing every day there was a line that ran from Westchester County to LIC.
- JackFr 8y ago
  Yeah. It comes down to river crossings. People complain about Manhattan, but attempts to build out Brooklyn, Jersey City, Long Island City and Stamford always end up falling short of the original goals, because of the commute. People from Long Island, Connecticut, Westchester and New Jersey can get to Manhattan with a single mode of public transportation (because they only have to cross one river.) When you move to any of those other locations, you eliminate a large chunk of potential employees, because their commute effectively goes up by >50%.
untog 8y ago
> in the next five years or so once self-driving cars are a thing You have another thing coming if you think a) self driving cars will be here in five years or b) that they will make NYC traffic a dream to navigate when they do.