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I’ve lived through four or five recessions and there’s no indication this is any sort of anomaly. It’s more like saying that a hurricane is going to hit Florida
by mikeash 8y ago
I’ve lived through four or five recessions and there’s no indication this is any sort of anomaly. It’s more like saying that a hurricane is going to hit Florida. Predicting exactly when and how is nearly impossible, but we can say with almost complete certainty that it’s going to happen within a few years.
- scarejunba 8y agoIf few is three years or less time, you can make money on some options expiring Jan 2022. Have you bought them?
- mikeash 8y agoAnd if it’s three years and a month?
- scarejunba 8y agoWell, it's useful for me to know that your confidence of it happening in the next 3 years is low when you make your statement. I see that it is. That's enough for me.
- mikeash 8y agoHave you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.
- scarejunba 8y ago> Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier. I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.
- mikeash 8y agoRight. You said if a few is three, I responded to indicate that it’s looser than that, and you then basically assumed I’m a liar rather than considering that the “if” might be wrong. If you’re not interested in a bet, why did you reply to me to ask if I’ve made one?