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I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU We have had 10 year

I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a recession). If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in the next three years. It is far from speculation. The charts was generated from here: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat... Edit: FYI I did not imply that market corrections == recession. The reason I put the image is to show that there hasn't been a recession in 10 years and that we are due for one. We have had a few market corrections this year, but no recession yet.

jldugger 8y ago
Now plot a expoential regression on it -- where _should_ we be?
andrestan 8y ago
Stock market "correction" != recession. It's also not even remotely clear to me that a plot of 500 of the largest corporations in the US SHOULDN'T be growing extremely/exponentially fast.
zjaffee 8y ago
Market corrections and recessions aren't the same thing, the chart you posted clearly shows Black Monday as not being a result of a recession. A rebalancing of the stock market at large doesn't necessarily result in mass unemployment, followed by mass foreclosure and so on.
6502nerdface 8y ago
That plot appears to show a 20-year-long bull market from 1980 to 2000, so with that precedent set, who's to say we aren't only half-way through the current bull run? (I don't actually have a strong view one way or the other; my point is just that it's hard to conclude anything by reading an S&P 500 price chart by itself.)
aquadrop 8y ago
Rollback that graph to 1995, and it looks similar to current situation. And then there was 5 more years of high growth.

jldugger 8y ago

Now plot a expoential regression on it -- where _should_ we be?

andrestan 8y ago

Stock market "correction" != recession. It's also not even remotely clear to me that a plot of 500 of the largest corporations in the US SHOULDN'T be growing extremely/exponentially fast.

zjaffee 8y ago

Market corrections and recessions aren't the same thing, the chart you posted clearly shows Black Monday as not being a result of a recession. A rebalancing of the stock market at large doesn't necessarily result in mass unemployment, followed by mass foreclosure and so on.

6502nerdface 8y ago

That plot appears to show a 20-year-long bull market from 1980 to 2000, so with that precedent set, who's to say we aren't only half-way through the current bull run? (I don't actually have a strong view one way or the other; my point is just that it's hard to conclude anything by reading an S&P 500 price chart by itself.)

aquadrop 8y ago

Rollback that graph to 1995, and it looks similar to current situation. And then there was 5 more years of high growth.