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Sure, but that's like saying Yellowstone is going to erupt.
by cbuq 8y ago
Sure, but that's like saying Yellowstone is going to erupt.
- dhosek 8y agoMore like saying that a geyser at Yellowstone is going to erupt. If you believe that the timeframe for the next recession is on par with the timeframe for the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
- mikeash 8y agoI’ve lived through four or five recessions and there’s no indication this is any sort of anomaly. It’s more like saying that a hurricane is going to hit Florida. Predicting exactly when and how is nearly impossible, but we can say with almost complete certainty that it’s going to happen within a few years.
- scarejunba 8y agoIf few is three years or less time, you can make money on some options expiring Jan 2022. Have you bought them?
- mikeash 8y agoAnd if it’s three years and a month?
- scarejunba 8y agoWell, it's useful for me to know that your confidence of it happening in the next 3 years is low when you make your statement. I see that it is. That's enough for me.
- mikeash 8y agoHave you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.
- scarejunba 8y ago> Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier. I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.
- mikeash 8y agoRight. You said if a few is three, I responded to indicate that it’s looser than that, and you then basically assumed I’m a liar rather than considering that the “if” might be wrong. If you’re not interested in a bet, why did you reply to me to ask if I’ve made one?