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"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative thi

"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative things with such certainty. The future is never guaranteed.

sauwan 8y ago
Well, I don't think it's speculative to say that a recession is coming. Predicting exactly when is hard, but isn't it a near virtual certainty that it will happen?
- cbuq 8y ago
  Sure, but that's like saying Yellowstone is going to erupt.
  - dhosek 8y ago
    More like saying that a geyser at Yellowstone is going to erupt. If you believe that the timeframe for the next recession is on par with the timeframe for the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
  - mikeash 8y ago
    I’ve lived through four or five recessions and there’s no indication this is any sort of anomaly. It’s more like saying that a hurricane is going to hit Florida. Predicting exactly when and how is nearly impossible, but we can say with almost complete certainty that it’s going to happen within a few years.
    - scarejunba 8y ago
      If few is three years or less time, you can make money on some options expiring Jan 2022. Have you bought them?
      - mikeash 8y ago
        And if it’s three years and a month?
        scarejunba 8y ago
        Well, it's useful for me to know that your confidence of it happening in the next 3 years is low when you make your statement. I see that it is. That's enough for me.
        mikeash 8y ago
        Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.
        scarejunba 8y ago
        > Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier. I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.
        mikeash 8y ago
        Right. You said if a few is three, I responded to indicate that it’s looser than that, and you then basically assumed I’m a liar rather than considering that the “if” might be wrong. If you’re not interested in a bet, why did you reply to me to ask if I’ve made one?
- HillaryBriss 8y ago
  it's also hard to predict how deep the recession will be
jimjansen 8y ago
We're currently riding the longest bull market in history. Surely you don't think it will last forever and that we are closer to to it's end than it's beginning?
imh 8y ago
The more worried people are that there's a bubble, the less extreme the irrational exuberance. I love all the "shit, the bubble's about to pop" talk. If people weren't worried, it's just make the correction that much worse when it comes. And someday we'll have one, that's a given. It's just a question of when and how bad.
rburhum 8y ago
I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a recession). If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in the next three years. It is far from speculation. The charts was generated from here: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat... Edit: FYI I did not imply that market corrections == recession. The reason I put the image is to show that there hasn't been a recession in 10 years and that we are due for one. We have had a few market corrections this year, but no recession yet.
- jldugger 8y ago
  Now plot a expoential regression on it -- where _should_ we be?
- andrestan 8y ago
  Stock market "correction" != recession. It's also not even remotely clear to me that a plot of 500 of the largest corporations in the US SHOULDN'T be growing extremely/exponentially fast.
- zjaffee 8y ago
  Market corrections and recessions aren't the same thing, the chart you posted clearly shows Black Monday as not being a result of a recession. A rebalancing of the stock market at large doesn't necessarily result in mass unemployment, followed by mass foreclosure and so on.
- 6502nerdface 8y ago
  That plot appears to show a 20-year-long bull market from 1980 to 2000, so with that precedent set, who's to say we aren't only half-way through the current bull run? (I don't actually have a strong view one way or the other; my point is just that it's hard to conclude anything by reading an S&P 500 price chart by itself.)
- aquadrop 8y ago
vernie 8y ago
What's the danger?
mratzloff 8y ago
Thank goodness you said that. I thought we had a time traveler among us, but then I read your comment! Luckily I was able to cancel the sell order I issued in a panic.

sauwan 8y ago

Well, I don't think it's speculative to say that a recession is coming. Predicting exactly when is hard, but isn't it a near virtual certainty that it will happen?

cbuq 8y ago
Sure, but that's like saying Yellowstone is going to erupt.
- dhosek 8y ago
  More like saying that a geyser at Yellowstone is going to erupt. If you believe that the timeframe for the next recession is on par with the timeframe for the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
- mikeash 8y ago
  I’ve lived through four or five recessions and there’s no indication this is any sort of anomaly. It’s more like saying that a hurricane is going to hit Florida. Predicting exactly when and how is nearly impossible, but we can say with almost complete certainty that it’s going to happen within a few years.
  - scarejunba 8y ago
    If few is three years or less time, you can make money on some options expiring Jan 2022. Have you bought them?
    - mikeash 8y ago
      And if it’s three years and a month?
      - scarejunba 8y ago
        Well, it's useful for me to know that your confidence of it happening in the next 3 years is low when you make your statement. I see that it is. That's enough for me.
        mikeash 8y ago
        Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.
        scarejunba 8y ago
        > Have you considered that maybe my concept of “few” is not “three”? Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier. I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.
        mikeash 8y ago
        Right. You said if a few is three, I responded to indicate that it’s looser than that, and you then basically assumed I’m a liar rather than considering that the “if” might be wrong. If you’re not interested in a bet, why did you reply to me to ask if I’ve made one?
HillaryBriss 8y ago
it's also hard to predict how deep the recession will be

jimjansen 8y ago

We're currently riding the longest bull market in history. Surely you don't think it will last forever and that we are closer to to it's end than it's beginning?

imh 8y ago

The more worried people are that there's a bubble, the less extreme the irrational exuberance. I love all the "shit, the bubble's about to pop" talk. If people weren't worried, it's just make the correction that much worse when it comes. And someday we'll have one, that's a given. It's just a question of when and how bad.

rburhum 8y ago

I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a recession). If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in the next three years. It is far from speculation. The charts was generated from here: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat... Edit: FYI I did not imply that market corrections == recession. The reason I put the image is to show that there hasn't been a recession in 10 years and that we are due for one. We have had a few market corrections this year, but no recession yet.

jldugger 8y ago
Now plot a expoential regression on it -- where _should_ we be?
andrestan 8y ago
Stock market "correction" != recession. It's also not even remotely clear to me that a plot of 500 of the largest corporations in the US SHOULDN'T be growing extremely/exponentially fast.
zjaffee 8y ago
Market corrections and recessions aren't the same thing, the chart you posted clearly shows Black Monday as not being a result of a recession. A rebalancing of the stock market at large doesn't necessarily result in mass unemployment, followed by mass foreclosure and so on.
6502nerdface 8y ago
That plot appears to show a 20-year-long bull market from 1980 to 2000, so with that precedent set, who's to say we aren't only half-way through the current bull run? (I don't actually have a strong view one way or the other; my point is just that it's hard to conclude anything by reading an S&P 500 price chart by itself.)
aquadrop 8y ago

vernie 8y ago

What's the danger?

mratzloff 8y ago

Thank goodness you said that. I thought we had a time traveler among us, but then I read your comment! Luckily I was able to cancel the sell order I issued in a panic.