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Weak. SoftBank has always seemed suspiciously large and cavalier. I expect there's a venture analog to the expression "there are old pilots, and there are bold

Weak. SoftBank has always seemed suspiciously large and cavalier. I expect there's a venture analog to the expression "there are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots." Let's hope they stick the WeWork landing ...

rayvy 8y ago
> "there are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots." First time ever hearing this. What an interesting expression
- mikeyouse 8y ago
  I've heard it with climbers and soldiers as well, seems like it works across many fields.
  - crwalker 8y ago
    It's a simple way to express the difference between probabilities for an ensemble of game players and probabilities for a particular player over time. If the player is ruined, the game stops for them. More from Taleb: https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3 https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf410... --edit: added "for them"
    - erikpukinskis 8y ago
      Optimal strategy is probably a curve: start compliant, follow the rules, be conservative, then take bigger and bigger risks until you can go “all in” on a series of risky bets, and if you aren’t obliterated dial back your risks to favor longevity. If you are obliterated, well, you served the population. This is probably more psychologically palettable for men than women. Although some women can do it for sure. Just... well at the population level it doesn’t make nearly as much sense evolutionarily for folks with wombs to take these kinds of risks as folks producing sperm.
      - singingboyo 8y ago
        Optimal strategy for the population, perhaps, but as an individual avoiding 'all-in' is very nice, if not always possible. In the context of SoftBank, though, I'd expect all-ins and near all-ins to be avoidable...
        erikpukinskis 8y ago
        Death only hurts once, but success feels good forever. So, in that sense it’s worth it to take the bet. Optimality is just maximizing your upside and minimizing the window of exposure to oblivion. I don’t think there’s any “avoid oblivion at all costs” strategy that comes close to “court oblivion once” in terms of the total expected utility.
  - adharmad 8y ago
    Spies too.
mundu_wa_hinya 8y ago
Yeager...:-D

rayvy 8y ago

> "there are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots." First time ever hearing this. What an interesting expression

mikeyouse 8y ago
I've heard it with climbers and soldiers as well, seems like it works across many fields.
- crwalker 8y ago
  It's a simple way to express the difference between probabilities for an ensemble of game players and probabilities for a particular player over time. If the player is ruined, the game stops for them. More from Taleb: https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3 https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf410... --edit: added "for them"
  - erikpukinskis 8y ago
    Optimal strategy is probably a curve: start compliant, follow the rules, be conservative, then take bigger and bigger risks until you can go “all in” on a series of risky bets, and if you aren’t obliterated dial back your risks to favor longevity. If you are obliterated, well, you served the population. This is probably more psychologically palettable for men than women. Although some women can do it for sure. Just... well at the population level it doesn’t make nearly as much sense evolutionarily for folks with wombs to take these kinds of risks as folks producing sperm.
    - singingboyo 8y ago
      Optimal strategy for the population, perhaps, but as an individual avoiding 'all-in' is very nice, if not always possible. In the context of SoftBank, though, I'd expect all-ins and near all-ins to be avoidable...
      - erikpukinskis 8y ago
        Death only hurts once, but success feels good forever. So, in that sense it’s worth it to take the bet. Optimality is just maximizing your upside and minimizing the window of exposure to oblivion. I don’t think there’s any “avoid oblivion at all costs” strategy that comes close to “court oblivion once” in terms of the total expected utility.
- adharmad 8y ago
  Spies too.

mundu_wa_hinya 8y ago

Yeager...:-D