4 ms·

> and that they see the investments that they are making in performance will pay off greatly in the coming years, because suddenly our phone will be more powerf

by ardy42 8y ago

> and that they see the investments that they are making in performance will pay off greatly in the coming years, because suddenly our phone will be more powerful than our desktop. The only way I can see that happening is if people stop upgrading their desktops for years and years AND phones are able to make steady performance improvements AND people don't stop upgrading their phones regularly. Larger form factors (both desktop and laptop) have physical advantages when it comes to performance (e.g. cooling, more power), and I don't think they can be beaten by a smaller form factor in a fair competition (e.g. chips at similar process nodes). If mobile computing has reached maturity like desktop computing has, I can see people holding off their mobile upgrades the same as they hold off their desktop upgrades, which would mute the main way mobile can get a performance edge over desktop. The burn-the-ships software update cycle that's more common on mobile may mitigate that, but it's coming to the desktop so it may not be much of a difference in the future.

oflannabhra 8y ago
I agree with all of this. I'm not arguing that laptops and desktops will disappear. But, when people are deciding what to spend money on, I think laptops and desktops will become increasingly marginalized and niche. Also, I think that it very well might be the case that Apple can deliver performance parity compared to larger form factors. The latest iPad Pro is an indication of where iPhones will be in a year. The new iPad rivals the MacBook Pro 2018 in CPU benchmarks [0]. Now that they are designing their own GPUs, I expect the gap to continue to close. Why would a consumer spend $1500 on a laptop that they use 1-2 hours a day, compared to a phone they use 8 hours a day and is always with them? I'd argue that we are already at the point where most consumers aren't even at the point of considering traditional "computers" in their decisions. You touch on a good point about software. I think it is the biggest current stumbling block. It is currently the case that desktops and laptops offer significant workflow advantages over mobile devices, even for consumers. [0] - https://browser.geekbench.com/v4/cpu/10567048 https://browser.geekbench.com/v4/cpu/10567048
- secabeen 8y ago
  >Why would a consumer spend $1500 on a laptop that they use 1-2 hours a day, compared to a phone they use 8 hours a day and is always with them? I'd argue that we are already at the point where most consumers aren't even at the point of considering traditional "computers" in their decisions. I think as long as you act primarily as a _consumer_ of other people's content, this is accurate. As soon as you want to _create_ media of your own in any significant way, you then need a keyboard, a larger screen, a decent pointing device, etc. (maybe not all of the above for a particular creative endeavor, but these sorts of things). The question then is, what percentage of people create enough to need creative devices, and what percentage are happy just being consumers? I think Apple is focusing on the creatives.

by ardy42 8y ago

oflannabhra 8y ago

I agree with all of this. I'm not arguing that laptops and desktops will disappear. But, when people are deciding what to spend money on, I think laptops and desktops will become increasingly marginalized and niche. Also, I think that it very well might be the case that Apple can deliver performance parity compared to larger form factors. The latest iPad Pro is an indication of where iPhones will be in a year. The new iPad rivals the MacBook Pro 2018 in CPU benchmarks [0]. Now that they are designing their own GPUs, I expect the gap to continue to close. Why would a consumer spend $1500 on a laptop that they use 1-2 hours a day, compared to a phone they use 8 hours a day and is always with them? I'd argue that we are already at the point where most consumers aren't even at the point of considering traditional "computers" in their decisions. You touch on a good point about software. I think it is the biggest current stumbling block. It is currently the case that desktops and laptops offer significant workflow advantages over mobile devices, even for consumers. [0] - https://browser.geekbench.com/v4/cpu/10567048 https://browser.geekbench.com/v4/cpu/10567048

secabeen 8y ago
>Why would a consumer spend $1500 on a laptop that they use 1-2 hours a day, compared to a phone they use 8 hours a day and is always with them? I'd argue that we are already at the point where most consumers aren't even at the point of considering traditional "computers" in their decisions. I think as long as you act primarily as a _consumer_ of other people's content, this is accurate. As soon as you want to _create_ media of your own in any significant way, you then need a keyboard, a larger screen, a decent pointing device, etc. (maybe not all of the above for a particular creative endeavor, but these sorts of things). The question then is, what percentage of people create enough to need creative devices, and what percentage are happy just being consumers? I think Apple is focusing on the creatives.