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I think it's pretty clear that online video slipped right through their fingers. They were early with Apple TV and Steve Jobs' assertion that he had "cracked" T

I think it's pretty clear that online video slipped right through their fingers. They were early with Apple TV and Steve Jobs' assertion that he had "cracked" TV back in 2011. And what happened? They did almost nothing and let Netflix run away with it. Apple wasn't even a contender. Same thing goes for mapping, which was highlighted in that recent blog post. They came out with Apple Maps years ago but almost did nothing with it...it feels like they half-assed the whole project and are now flailing in catch-up mode. It seems their status as also-ran is now permanent. They shut down their router business while Ubiquiti (run by a former Apple engineer) has run wild in the networking world and looks primed to completely disrupt Cisco over time. They clung onto Apple Music, pot-committed to a model that looked outdated the moment Spotify launched in the US. They've had some successes like Apple Watch, so I wouldn't write Apple off just yet. But yeah, the things they've missed which they should've known better about is a bit concerning.

bunnycorn 8y ago
Online video and Maps. Markets that started before the iPhone and when Apple was collaborating very closely with Google. Apple let Google win in those markets without opposition and then Google stabbed Apple in the back with Android. Reminder that the original iOS versions had YouTube built in, and Google Maps.
- mikepurvis 8y ago
  Not only were they built into the OS, pre-dating any third-party app capabilities, but the native apps literally were designed by Apple engineers. Like, Apple created the entire blueprint for what the end user experience on mobile was supposed to be, and was happy for Google to supply the backend service and collect all the analytics and advertising revenue.
013a 8y ago
I don't believe these are "missed opportunities". A true missed opportunity would be, say, Microsoft and the phone market. The train came and went on that because of the network effects of a phone platform putting momentum behind incumbents. Look at Apple Music. Spotify was released in 2008. Google Play Music All Access in 2013. Apple Music was released in 2015. For being technically 8 years late, APM has 50M subscribers, compared to Spotify's 75M [1] (GPM is probably harder to measure because the subscription is combined with YTP/YTM, I pay for it but literally never use it). If that wasn't impressive, realize that APM is marketed just to Apple users, whereas all those other platforms do everything they can to get users on every platform (APM is available on Windows and Android, though I'd love to see the user counts for those platforms over the competition, likely very low). Apple Maps and the routers are really weird things to pick on. They're not core at all to Apple's business model. They're fungible products; you can use any mapping software or any router and get 98% of the same experience. Apple simply doesn't invest a lot in fungible products; they invest in products where they can make a true 10x difference for their customers. iCloud Drive is the same way; customers want it so they'll make it, but they're not going to drop $5B developing it. An Apple TV subscription service is more similar to APM than anything else, with the exception that music streaming services are expected to have "everything" on the platform whereas streaming services just need to host those handful of shows you watch to justify the subscription price. And they might have a great lineup coming up the pipeline here; they've ordered shows from Ronald Moore, a TV adaptation of Foundation, a comedy from the co-creators of Its Always Sunny, a show produced by J.J. Abrams, etc; I think they're in a good place to drop a big announcement and secure a LOT of subscribers. [2] [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/careypurcell/2018/05/15/with-50-million-subscribers-apple-music-still-lags-behind-spotify-for-now/#1cd40128557f https://www.forbes.com/sites/careypurcell/2018/05/15/with-50... [2] https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/07/11/here-are-all-of-the-future-tv-shows-that-apple-has-signed-deals-for https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/07/11/here-are-all-of-t...
snuxoll 8y ago
> They shut down their router business while Ubiquiti (run by a former Apple engineer) has run wild in the networking world and looks primed to completely disrupt Cisco over time. Out of everything you listed this is the one that I don't think Apple is really missing out on, as they were never positioned to be a major player outside the prosumer space which often has needs beyond what Apple was providing. The average consumer is an idiot when it comes to networking, most of them run ISP-provided equipment, and those that don't are often informed enough to get hardware to run DD-WRT/etc. or buy a proper prosumer solution like Ubiquiti's. Back when wireless routers weren't provided by default with your internet service, a half-decent one wasn't cheap, and people just wanted a simple solution that "worked" then the Airport had value in ensuring Apple's other products had connectivity. There's no benefit to them doing this now, and Apple is not positioned to get into the prosumer/business SDN market that Ubiquiti is in.
- bedhead 8y ago
  You're right, one of these things is not like the other. However, I think in the next ten years, Apple will regret having neglected this product category, and Ubiquiti is making inroads into consumer-grade products as well as service providers and enterprise-level networking. I just think it's interesting that Ubiquiti was born out of Apple and was able to turn this into a super interesting and profitable business even though there is a perfectly logical reason as you note. I suppose I just think Ubiquiti is so fascinating that it will be evident one day what a mistake Apple made.
  - cmsj 8y ago
    Two brief points: 1) Just because the Ubiquiti founder came from Apple, doesn't mean that Apple should be in the quasi-enterprise networking space that Ubiquiti is. Apple's networking gear was always aiming to be simple, plug-and-play hardware for people who don't want to think about networking. That's pretty much the opposite of Ubiquiti's products. 2) When Apple was still doing things like networking, we had a lot of people complaining that their focus was spread too widely, and their core products were suffering.
briandear 8y ago
Maps is hardly the next big thing. What you do with Maps is potentially the next big thing. Online video? They pretty much invented that with the iTunes Store on software and Apple TV on hardware. That the subscription business model isn’t a thing at Apple isn’t “missing” anything. The difference between the iTunes Store and Netflix isn’t one of technology but of business model. As we have learned time and time again, being first is no virtue. Through iTunes, I have access to almost every movie: through Netflix, I have a curated selection with a high proportion of low-quality filler. If Apple can take the next step with subscriptions, it could be curtains for Netflix.

bunnycorn 8y ago

Online video and Maps. Markets that started before the iPhone and when Apple was collaborating very closely with Google. Apple let Google win in those markets without opposition and then Google stabbed Apple in the back with Android. Reminder that the original iOS versions had YouTube built in, and Google Maps.

mikepurvis 8y ago
Not only were they built into the OS, pre-dating any third-party app capabilities, but the native apps literally were designed by Apple engineers. Like, Apple created the entire blueprint for what the end user experience on mobile was supposed to be, and was happy for Google to supply the backend service and collect all the analytics and advertising revenue.

013a 8y ago

I don't believe these are "missed opportunities". A true missed opportunity would be, say, Microsoft and the phone market. The train came and went on that because of the network effects of a phone platform putting momentum behind incumbents. Look at Apple Music. Spotify was released in 2008. Google Play Music All Access in 2013. Apple Music was released in 2015. For being technically 8 years late, APM has 50M subscribers, compared to Spotify's 75M [1] (GPM is probably harder to measure because the subscription is combined with YTP/YTM, I pay for it but literally never use it). If that wasn't impressive, realize that APM is marketed just to Apple users, whereas all those other platforms do everything they can to get users on every platform (APM is available on Windows and Android, though I'd love to see the user counts for those platforms over the competition, likely very low). Apple Maps and the routers are really weird things to pick on. They're not core at all to Apple's business model. They're fungible products; you can use any mapping software or any router and get 98% of the same experience. Apple simply doesn't invest a lot in fungible products; they invest in products where they can make a true 10x difference for their customers. iCloud Drive is the same way; customers want it so they'll make it, but they're not going to drop $5B developing it. An Apple TV subscription service is more similar to APM than anything else, with the exception that music streaming services are expected to have "everything" on the platform whereas streaming services just need to host those handful of shows you watch to justify the subscription price. And they might have a great lineup coming up the pipeline here; they've ordered shows from Ronald Moore, a TV adaptation of Foundation, a comedy from the co-creators of Its Always Sunny, a show produced by J.J. Abrams, etc; I think they're in a good place to drop a big announcement and secure a LOT of subscribers. [2] [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/careypurcell/2018/05/15/with-50-million-subscribers-apple-music-still-lags-behind-spotify-for-now/#1cd40128557f https://www.forbes.com/sites/careypurcell/2018/05/15/with-50... [2] https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/07/11/here-are-all-of-the-future-tv-shows-that-apple-has-signed-deals-for https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/07/11/here-are-all-of-t...

snuxoll 8y ago

> They shut down their router business while Ubiquiti (run by a former Apple engineer) has run wild in the networking world and looks primed to completely disrupt Cisco over time. Out of everything you listed this is the one that I don't think Apple is really missing out on, as they were never positioned to be a major player outside the prosumer space which often has needs beyond what Apple was providing. The average consumer is an idiot when it comes to networking, most of them run ISP-provided equipment, and those that don't are often informed enough to get hardware to run DD-WRT/etc. or buy a proper prosumer solution like Ubiquiti's. Back when wireless routers weren't provided by default with your internet service, a half-decent one wasn't cheap, and people just wanted a simple solution that "worked" then the Airport had value in ensuring Apple's other products had connectivity. There's no benefit to them doing this now, and Apple is not positioned to get into the prosumer/business SDN market that Ubiquiti is in.

bedhead 8y ago
You're right, one of these things is not like the other. However, I think in the next ten years, Apple will regret having neglected this product category, and Ubiquiti is making inroads into consumer-grade products as well as service providers and enterprise-level networking. I just think it's interesting that Ubiquiti was born out of Apple and was able to turn this into a super interesting and profitable business even though there is a perfectly logical reason as you note. I suppose I just think Ubiquiti is so fascinating that it will be evident one day what a mistake Apple made.
- cmsj 8y ago
  Two brief points: 1) Just because the Ubiquiti founder came from Apple, doesn't mean that Apple should be in the quasi-enterprise networking space that Ubiquiti is. Apple's networking gear was always aiming to be simple, plug-and-play hardware for people who don't want to think about networking. That's pretty much the opposite of Ubiquiti's products. 2) When Apple was still doing things like networking, we had a lot of people complaining that their focus was spread too widely, and their core products were suffering.

briandear 8y ago

Maps is hardly the next big thing. What you do with Maps is potentially the next big thing. Online video? They pretty much invented that with the iTunes Store on software and Apple TV on hardware. That the subscription business model isn’t a thing at Apple isn’t “missing” anything. The difference between the iTunes Store and Netflix isn’t one of technology but of business model. As we have learned time and time again, being first is no virtue. Through iTunes, I have access to almost every movie: through Netflix, I have a curated selection with a high proportion of low-quality filler. If Apple can take the next step with subscriptions, it could be curtains for Netflix.