4 ms·

Yeah, gym teachers love to express the same set of beliefs. I personally think that's a lot like saying anyone who studies hard enough can become a great progr

by lsc 8y ago

Yeah, gym teachers love to express the same set of beliefs. I personally think that's a lot like saying anyone who studies hard enough can become a great programmer. I mean, sure, in both cases, someone who doesn't try hard isn't going to make it, but most of us aren't going to become SEALs or Donald Knuth no matter how hard we train. Really "someone who doesn't try hard enough isn't going to make it" is true of both and pretty important. From that perspective, if you know some of it is effort and some of it is innate, but you cant properly measure the innate part, you are best off telling everyone whatever it is that makes them try hardest. (this, of course, is only true if you don't have to pay the cost of failure. Both businesses and sports coaches are really only concerned about picking out the very best. the washouts are on their own. An externality)

jacobush 8y ago
Yeah, it didn't come out in my comment, but I didn't mean it to be "anyone can do it". Just that the doggedness and determination is a big part. The person making it to be a SEAL might never be able to buff up to Arnold levels and vice versa. The motivation might not be there. The physical stamina might not be there.
gaius 8y ago
gym teachers love to express the same set of beliefs I think that’s orthogonal. The SAS aren’t looking for Olympic level athletes in any given sport. They’re looking for people who will keep going in the face of exhaustion beyond anything any athlete will ever experience. That’s a test of will and character more then anything physical. Like, Usain Bolt and Meb Keflezighi are amazing athletes, but neither of them do anything like Test Week or Hell Week in training.
- barry-cotter 8y ago
  > They’re looking for people who will keep going in the face of exhaustion beyond anything any athlete will ever experience. You should talk to some ultramarathon runners. A woman I know did a 100K and slept for seven minutes en route. She didn’t win. The people who do go faster and sleep less.
  - joelrunyon 8y ago
    A 100k isn't that long in the scheme of ultra running. Most finish in 12-18 hours - so it's just a long, long day on your feet. The 100 milers are the ones that tend to be 24 hour+ endeavors for non-winning runners (even though some of the elites run it much, much faster). However, ultra runners are insane and now they're launching 200+ mile races where the winers only sleep a few hours. Source: am an ultra runner.
    - logfromblammo 8y ago
      Sounds like a research project to see if any humans are capable of the dolphin trick--sleeping with only one half of their brain at a time.
      - jacobush 8y ago
        I've heard that people start dreaming (hallucinating) while running. "Just ignore the leprechauns, keep running..."
        joelrunyon 8y ago
        This is true. Lots of weird stuff happen when you go too long without sleep.
  - gaius 8y ago
    You should talk to some ultramarathon runners. A woman I know did a 100K and slept for seven minutes en route. She didn’t win I know and train with plenty of ultra-endurance athletes in our MilFit group, and they’ll tell you the same thing - not least because several are ex-SF ;-) I’ve done the Fan Dance (with weight) and the last thing I’d want to do is a similar event the next day and the next and the next, culminating in the Long Drag. I almost certainly physically could do one more - but I can’t face it. The mind breaks before the body. That’s what separates endurance dilettantes like me from those what have what it takes to just keep going, which is what they are filtering for. Fitness per se is necessary but not sufficient. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fan_Dance_(exercise) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fan_Dance_(exercise)
sokoloff 8y ago
I think the SEALs analogy is a good one as I believe, absent cognitive or other significant impairment, that nearly anyone of average intelligence or better and a sincere drive to become great can become an excellent programmer. Imagine what a BUD/S training might look like for programming. It would make struggling with SICP or the Dragon book look like a walk in a park. SEALs represent about 1% of active duty Navy. That's elite but not singular level. Think about the vast swaths of terrible workers you find in any field, including ours. Whether they're poorly trained, lazy, just going through the motions, doing just enough to not get fired, I think you'll find it's easy to beat the bottom half of any cohort with a tiny amount of talent and modest amount of dedication. I believe that when we come across the 1 in a million outlier (Knuth, Carmack, Gosling, Ritchie, et al) that those people combined a lot of raw talent with a lot of hard work. But just getting to the 1 in 100 level? Hard work will take you a long, long way down that road, because most people simply aren't willing to put in that work.
- michaelt 8y ago
  nearly anyone of average intelligence or better and a sincere drive to become great can become an excellent programmer. Seems to me it's awfully difficult to tell three things apart: 1. Having the interest to, on average, enjoy putting in the hours needed to achieve the goal. 2. Having the grit/dedication to push through the non-enjoyable hours and downsides. 3. Getting the results that make a rational person with an accurate view of their progress believe their goal can realistically be achieved.
- lsc 8y ago
  >But just getting to the 1 in 100 level? Hard work will take you a long, long way down that road, because most people simply aren't willing to put in that work. Tell me, do you have a 1 in 100 income? if it's all effort, why not?
  - kthejoker2 8y ago
    Among developers? Adjusted for cost of living? Maybe? What's the number.
Animats 8y ago
This, of course, is only true if you don't have to pay the cost of failure. Both businesses and sports coaches are really only concerned about picking out the very best. The washouts are on their own. An externality. This is a problem with Navy SEAL training. They've had a substantial number of people injured for life in BUD/S training because they wouldn't quit.[1] This may be worth it for the elite military, but it's not appropriate for people who are just going to be working in ordinary businesses. Students at MIT who are like that are called "tools". Comments from MIT people would be appreciated. (Stanford was not as hard-core.) [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1-dead-4-nearly-drown-during-navy-seal-training-2016-n580086 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1-dead-4-nearly-drown-d...

by lsc 8y ago

jacobush 8y ago

Yeah, it didn't come out in my comment, but I didn't mean it to be "anyone can do it". Just that the doggedness and determination is a big part. The person making it to be a SEAL might never be able to buff up to Arnold levels and vice versa. The motivation might not be there. The physical stamina might not be there.

gaius 8y ago

gym teachers love to express the same set of beliefs I think that’s orthogonal. The SAS aren’t looking for Olympic level athletes in any given sport. They’re looking for people who will keep going in the face of exhaustion beyond anything any athlete will ever experience. That’s a test of will and character more then anything physical. Like, Usain Bolt and Meb Keflezighi are amazing athletes, but neither of them do anything like Test Week or Hell Week in training.

barry-cotter 8y ago
> They’re looking for people who will keep going in the face of exhaustion beyond anything any athlete will ever experience. You should talk to some ultramarathon runners. A woman I know did a 100K and slept for seven minutes en route. She didn’t win. The people who do go faster and sleep less.
- joelrunyon 8y ago
  A 100k isn't that long in the scheme of ultra running. Most finish in 12-18 hours - so it's just a long, long day on your feet. The 100 milers are the ones that tend to be 24 hour+ endeavors for non-winning runners (even though some of the elites run it much, much faster). However, ultra runners are insane and now they're launching 200+ mile races where the winers only sleep a few hours. Source: am an ultra runner.
  - logfromblammo 8y ago
    Sounds like a research project to see if any humans are capable of the dolphin trick--sleeping with only one half of their brain at a time.
    - jacobush 8y ago
      I've heard that people start dreaming (hallucinating) while running. "Just ignore the leprechauns, keep running..."
      - joelrunyon 8y ago
        This is true. Lots of weird stuff happen when you go too long without sleep.
- gaius 8y ago
  You should talk to some ultramarathon runners. A woman I know did a 100K and slept for seven minutes en route. She didn’t win I know and train with plenty of ultra-endurance athletes in our MilFit group, and they’ll tell you the same thing - not least because several are ex-SF ;-) I’ve done the Fan Dance (with weight) and the last thing I’d want to do is a similar event the next day and the next and the next, culminating in the Long Drag. I almost certainly physically could do one more - but I can’t face it. The mind breaks before the body. That’s what separates endurance dilettantes like me from those what have what it takes to just keep going, which is what they are filtering for. Fitness per se is necessary but not sufficient. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fan_Dance_(exercise) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fan_Dance_(exercise)

sokoloff 8y ago

I think the SEALs analogy is a good one as I believe, absent cognitive or other significant impairment, that nearly anyone of average intelligence or better and a sincere drive to become great can become an excellent programmer. Imagine what a BUD/S training might look like for programming. It would make struggling with SICP or the Dragon book look like a walk in a park. SEALs represent about 1% of active duty Navy. That's elite but not singular level. Think about the vast swaths of terrible workers you find in any field, including ours. Whether they're poorly trained, lazy, just going through the motions, doing just enough to not get fired, I think you'll find it's easy to beat the bottom half of any cohort with a tiny amount of talent and modest amount of dedication. I believe that when we come across the 1 in a million outlier (Knuth, Carmack, Gosling, Ritchie, et al) that those people combined a lot of raw talent with a lot of hard work. But just getting to the 1 in 100 level? Hard work will take you a long, long way down that road, because most people simply aren't willing to put in that work.

michaelt 8y ago
nearly anyone of average intelligence or better and a sincere drive to become great can become an excellent programmer. Seems to me it's awfully difficult to tell three things apart: 1. Having the interest to, on average, enjoy putting in the hours needed to achieve the goal. 2. Having the grit/dedication to push through the non-enjoyable hours and downsides. 3. Getting the results that make a rational person with an accurate view of their progress believe their goal can realistically be achieved.
lsc 8y ago
>But just getting to the 1 in 100 level? Hard work will take you a long, long way down that road, because most people simply aren't willing to put in that work. Tell me, do you have a 1 in 100 income? if it's all effort, why not?
- kthejoker2 8y ago
  Among developers? Adjusted for cost of living? Maybe? What's the number.

Animats 8y ago

This, of course, is only true if you don't have to pay the cost of failure. Both businesses and sports coaches are really only concerned about picking out the very best. The washouts are on their own. An externality. This is a problem with Navy SEAL training. They've had a substantial number of people injured for life in BUD/S training because they wouldn't quit.[1] This may be worth it for the elite military, but it's not appropriate for people who are just going to be working in ordinary businesses. Students at MIT who are like that are called "tools". Comments from MIT people would be appreciated. (Stanford was not as hard-core.) [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1-dead-4-nearly-drown-during-navy-seal-training-2016-n580086 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1-dead-4-nearly-drown-d...