3 ms·
I'm not sure that's a smart statement to make without having seen what 2038 and 2058 look like. If articles like this one about the sixth extinction aren't enou
by ex3xu 8y ago
I'm not sure that's a smart statement to make without having seen what 2038 and 2058 look like. If articles like this one about the sixth extinction aren't enough to sway your thinking, have you seen the pentagon report on the national security implications on the effects of climate change? I think it's a bit naive to think that you and everyone you know will be immune to the effects of heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, famine, etc. throughout the course of your lifetime. I've seen estimates as high as DARA's 2012 report of 100 million deaths by the year 2030 directly attributable to the impacts of climate change. Already Miami Beach spends millions on storm pumps just to stop its roads from being submerged by high tide -- and in addition to Miami, models predict the populations of Shanghai, Osaka, Alexandria and many other cities to be completely displaced by 2070. Perhaps there will be some technological Noah's Ark, but it's far from a sure bet that there will be enough space for you and your progeny if we do not find the political will to begin mitigation at scale as soon as possible.
In ecology, a common metaphor used to illustrate the impacts of the loss of biodiversity is the Rivet Hypothesis. Each species lost to extinction can be modeled as losing a rivet in the wing of a plane. Up to a certain point, a passenger on the plane would notice limited change in effects on their flight. Once the plane loses too many rivets, however, the crashing of the plane is analogous to the collapse of the ecosystem.
To answer your question about "How does that work", the generous answer would be to cite Nassim Taleb's Black Swan and Antifragile where he talks about the tendency of humans to underestimate the effects of long tail exposure to systemic risk. The less generous answer would be a reference to epistemic closure -- some people simply refuse to engage with evidence of a reality that contraindicates their prior beliefs. Or maybe the best model is simply that of addiction -- and who can argue that our society is not addicted to convenience and consumption, even when it threatens the only planet we live on?