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I am still not buying the idea that Facebook ads can decide the outcome of any elections. If I could be convinced then I would have a lot of questions about ou

I am still not buying the idea that Facebook ads can decide the outcome of any elections. If I could be convinced then I would have a lot of questions about our society, specie and civilization. Isn't it more likely Facebook is just the designated scapegoat for everything going wrong in elections and politics ?

Invictus0 8y ago
The ad industry is worth over 200 billion dollars. You really think it just doesn't work at all?
en-us 8y ago
Do you think that newspapers, radio, or TV have decided elections in the past? And do you understand microtargeting? For me the answer is yes and yes, and I would be surprised if Facebook does not have a major effect on elections.
- johnchristopher 8y ago
  > Do you think that newspapers, radio, or TV have decided elections in the past? Newspapers, radio and TV believe they have that power (we have been studying that since the 30's) but it's really not that simple. Last I checked it's still word-of-mouth and close IRL peer influence that works. > And do you understand microtargeting? Unfortunately, yes.
  - yorwba 8y ago
    > Last I checked it's still word-of-mouth and close IRL peer influence that works. It works, and it probably has the largest effect, but that doesn't prevent other things from working. If you factor in that IRL influence is hard to manufacture, whereas you can just buy ads on various platforms and show them to lots of people, mass advertising can easily come out ahead in terms of cost.
    - johnchristopher 8y ago
      IRL peer influence is really hard to manufacture. Now, don't get me wrong. Selling cigarettes or other things through influencers, social network ad campaigns and social network campaigns work for some products. Elections ? I'd like to see the numbers and I'd be happy (and scared) to change my opinion.
yorwba 8y ago
If Facebook ads have any effect at all, then they can decide the outcome of elections. If you need 10,000 votes to beat your opponent and Facebook ads can get you those votes, not using them could be the deciding factor resulting in a loss. Of course there are also hundreds of other factors deciding the outcome, so Facebook isn't special in any way.
- en-us 8y ago
  It's special because with microtargeting you can target exactly the 10000 voters that you need, giving each one a personalized message crafted to fit that individual's personality and views, and the messages will be seen by those individuals alone. So it's perfectly possible to feed 10000 voters their personally crafted propaganda and have nobody else even aware that it is happening.
  - johnchristopher 8y ago
    Still not buying it. 1. You'd have to know that 10 000 votes is missing. 2. You'd have to know how to target those 10 000 missing voters (criteria). 3. You'd have to craft very specific messages based on your criteria to determine who they are. 4. Now, hoping that those criteria are fit you have to hope that the message you crafted is going to be seen and noticed by your prospects. 5. Message noticed ? Good, how did you craft a message that would make up many voter's mind without being obvious ? 6. Who cares, you just have to convince the team running the campaign that social network marketing converts. That's the real skill.
    - Ascendency 8y ago
      That isn’t too hard with half-way decent models.
      - Spivak 8y ago
        I mean if you really believe you can do it you probably should and cash in easy multimillion dollar cheques from campaigns looking for this service.

Invictus0 8y ago

The ad industry is worth over 200 billion dollars. You really think it just doesn't work at all?

en-us 8y ago

Do you think that newspapers, radio, or TV have decided elections in the past? And do you understand microtargeting? For me the answer is yes and yes, and I would be surprised if Facebook does not have a major effect on elections.

johnchristopher 8y ago
> Do you think that newspapers, radio, or TV have decided elections in the past? Newspapers, radio and TV believe they have that power (we have been studying that since the 30's) but it's really not that simple. Last I checked it's still word-of-mouth and close IRL peer influence that works. > And do you understand microtargeting? Unfortunately, yes.
- yorwba 8y ago
  > Last I checked it's still word-of-mouth and close IRL peer influence that works. It works, and it probably has the largest effect, but that doesn't prevent other things from working. If you factor in that IRL influence is hard to manufacture, whereas you can just buy ads on various platforms and show them to lots of people, mass advertising can easily come out ahead in terms of cost.
  - johnchristopher 8y ago
    IRL peer influence is really hard to manufacture. Now, don't get me wrong. Selling cigarettes or other things through influencers, social network ad campaigns and social network campaigns work for some products. Elections ? I'd like to see the numbers and I'd be happy (and scared) to change my opinion.

yorwba 8y ago

If Facebook ads have any effect at all, then they can decide the outcome of elections. If you need 10,000 votes to beat your opponent and Facebook ads can get you those votes, not using them could be the deciding factor resulting in a loss. Of course there are also hundreds of other factors deciding the outcome, so Facebook isn't special in any way.

en-us 8y ago
It's special because with microtargeting you can target exactly the 10000 voters that you need, giving each one a personalized message crafted to fit that individual's personality and views, and the messages will be seen by those individuals alone. So it's perfectly possible to feed 10000 voters their personally crafted propaganda and have nobody else even aware that it is happening.
- johnchristopher 8y ago
  Still not buying it. 1. You'd have to know that 10 000 votes is missing. 2. You'd have to know how to target those 10 000 missing voters (criteria). 3. You'd have to craft very specific messages based on your criteria to determine who they are. 4. Now, hoping that those criteria are fit you have to hope that the message you crafted is going to be seen and noticed by your prospects. 5. Message noticed ? Good, how did you craft a message that would make up many voter's mind without being obvious ? 6. Who cares, you just have to convince the team running the campaign that social network marketing converts. That's the real skill.
  - Ascendency 8y ago
    That isn’t too hard with half-way decent models.
    - Spivak 8y ago
      I mean if you really believe you can do it you probably should and cash in easy multimillion dollar cheques from campaigns looking for this service.