> * For this toy problem, there is actually a simple closed-form solution for the probability so there’s no need to simulate I got about 1/3 of the way through

> * For this toy problem, there is actually a simple closed-form solution for the probability so there’s no need to simulate I got about 1/3 of the way through your comment, when my knee jerked and I said "Bernoulli trials, Binomial distribution".